HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> has seen muted reaction to weak industry figures recently but it is still unexciting in near-term, based on our catch-up with the company. </li>
<li>It has underperformed industry sales volume in 5M22 across all product categories, with that for wheel loader behind 4pp and excavator by 10pp. Forklift sales were down 18% YoY. </li>
<li>Both gross margin and investment income are set to contract in this year, making it highly likely to see significant earnings downgrade after 1H22 result announcement in Aug. </li>
</ul>


Share price of Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) has seen muted reaction to weak industry figures recently but it is still unexciting in near-term, based on our catch-up with the company. 
It has underperformed industry sales volume in 5M22 across all product categories, with that for wheel loader behind 4pp and excavator by 10pp. Forklift sales were down 18% YoY. 
Both gross margin and investment income are set to contract in this year, making it highly likely to see significant earnings downgrade after 1H22 result announcement in Aug. 


Lonking (3339 HK): Not Out of the Woods Yet

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Three companies reported their 3Q24 results last night (30 Oct).</li><li>SANY Heavy reported better-than-expected earnings driven by strong revenue growth (+19% YoY), while Zoomlion’s profit is below our expectation as strong overseas sales were more than offset by weak China performance.</li><li>Weichai Power reported profit decrease (-4% YoY), but is largely in-line with expectation given the weak HDT and engine demand. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Three companies reported their 3Q24 results last night (30 Oct).SANY Heavy reported better-than-expected earnings driven by strong revenue growth (+19% YoY), while Zoomlion’s profit is below our expectation as strong overseas sales were more than offset by weak China performance.Weichai Power reported profit decrease (-4% YoY), but is largely in-line with expectation given the weak HDT and engine demand. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - 3Q24 Earnings Review: SANY Heavy Beat; Zoomlion Missed; Weichai In-Line

<ul><li>China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Sep.</li><li>For exports, volume growth remained strong in general, in particular for tower cranes, truck cranes and forklifts.</li><li>In China, on the contrary, sales declined across all major products (except excavators), due largely to the weakness of overall economy, in particular property construction activities. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released a full set of construction machinery sales data for Sep.For exports, volume growth remained strong in general, in particular for tower cranes, truck cranes and forklifts.In China, on the contrary, sales declined across all major products (except excavators), due largely to the weakness of overall economy, in particular property construction activities. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Decent Export Growth; Weak Demand in China

<ul>
<li>Industry wheel loader sales rose 15.2% in Aug, continuing the healthy momentum. A low base in 2H24 will be another favourable factor, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> is well placed.   </li>
<li>Forklift outlook will stay strong and serve as a growth engine. There is also a significant pick-up in demand for industry excavator sales in Jul and Aug.</li>
<li>Net cash amounted to 81% of the share price. Including investments, it will increase to 118%. Conservative FY24 consensus earnings forecast means potential upside surprise.</li>
</ul>


Industry wheel loader sales rose 15.2% in Aug, continuing the healthy momentum. A low base in 2H24 will be another favourable factor, and Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) is well placed.   
Forklift outlook will stay strong and serve as a growth engine. There is also a significant pick-up in demand for industry excavator sales in Jul and Aug.
Net cash amounted to 81% of the share price. Including investments, it will increase to 118%. Conservative FY24 consensus earnings forecast means potential upside surprise.


Lonking (3339 HK): Small and Beautiful, Net Cash Equal 81% of Share Price

<ul><li>The two major earthmoving machinery, excavators and wheel loaders, saw double-digit sales volume growth in Aug, according to China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA).</li><li>Most notable is that exports of excavators grew 7% YoY to ~8k units in Aug, the first YoY growth since May 2023, an early sign of recovery.</li><li>Exports of wheel loaders remained strong with 22% growth in Aug. In China market, sales of excavators grew 18% YoY to 6.7k units in Aug, but the growth rate slowed gradually from 26%/22% in Jun/Jul. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The two major earthmoving machinery, excavators and wheel loaders, saw double-digit sales volume growth in Aug, according to China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA).Most notable is that exports of excavators grew 7% YoY to ~8k units in Aug, the first YoY growth since May 2023, an early sign of recovery.Exports of wheel loaders remained strong with 22% growth in Aug. In China market, sales of excavators grew 18% YoY to 6.7k units in Aug, but the growth rate slowed gradually from 26%/22% in Jun/Jul. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Excavator Exports Grew for the First Time in 15 Months

China

SANY Heavy Industry Co., Ltd manufactures and markets construction and engineering machinery and related parts. The Company produces and sells concrete pumps, concrete pump vehicles, road rollers, pavers, and other related products. Sany Heavy Industry markets its products worldwide.

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Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)

Lonking (3339 HK): Not Out of the Woods Yet

Lonking may disappoint the market by wide margin when it reports 1H22 result in Aug. Sales of its key product categories have been behind the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Capital Goods - 3Q24 Earnings Review: SANY Heavy Beat; Zoomlion Missed; Weichai In-Line

SANY Heavy reported better-than-expected earnings driven by strong revenue growth (+19% YoY), while Zoomlion’s profit is below our expectation

CMB International

Capital Goods - Decent Export Growth; Weak Demand in China

We still see some downside risks for our BUY-rated Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH) due to the deterioration of China’s crane demand that could...

CMB International

Capital Goods - Excavator Exports Grew for the First Time in 15 Months

The two major earthmoving machinery, excavators and wheel loaders, saw double-digit sales volume growth in Aug, according to China Construction...

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lonking (3339 HK): Not Out of the Woods Yet

Lonking may disappoint the market by wide margin when it reports 1H22 result in Aug. Sales of its key product categories have been behind the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Capital Goods - 3Q24 Earnings Review: SANY Heavy Beat; Zoomlion Missed; Weichai In-Line

SANY Heavy reported better-than-expected earnings driven by strong revenue growth (+19% YoY), while Zoomlion’s profit is below our expectation

CMB International

Capital Goods - Decent Export Growth; Weak Demand in China

We still see some downside risks for our BUY-rated Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH) due to the deterioration of China’s crane demand that could...

CMB International

Lonking (3339 HK): Small and Beautiful, Net Cash Equal 81% of Share Price

​Industry wheel loader sales surged in Jul-Aug and the forklift outlook is strong. Current forecasts for Lonking are conservative with an upside...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Capital Goods - Excavator Exports Grew for the First Time in 15 Months

The two major earthmoving machinery, excavators and wheel loaders, saw double-digit sales volume growth in Aug, according to China Construction...

CMB International

Industry wheel loader sales surged in Jul-Aug and the forklift outlook is strong. Current forecasts for Lonking are conservative with an upside...