Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Signal #1 -- Micron's CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.</li>
<li>Signal #2 -- South Korea semiconductor inventories jump 28% MoM, 39.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Implications for memory chip manufacturers: Biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.</li>
</ul>


Signal #1 -- Micron's CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.
Signal #2 -- South Korea semiconductor inventories jump 28% MoM, 39.5% YoY.
Implications for memory chip manufacturers: Biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.


Memory Monitor: Latest Two Signals Show Inventory Problems Worsening; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The U.S. is reportedly working to implement China semiconductor restrictions with South Korean firms, after doing the same with Japanese and Dutch firms.</li>
<li>Nanya management sees a bottom for Memory prices in 1Q23E; we look at Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.</li>
<li>Firms are significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. is reportedly working to implement China semiconductor restrictions with South Korean firms, after doing the same with Japanese and Dutch firms.
Nanya management sees a bottom for Memory prices in 1Q23E; we look at Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.
Firms are significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Pushing South Korea China Restrictions, Nanya Says Memory Bottom in 1Q23E

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Notable names that have proposed amendments to their articles of association for changing the dividend record date at this year's AGM include Hyundai Motor Group, POSCO Holdings, and Kakao Corp.</li>
<li>There were skeptical views on how much response local big-name companies would show to Korea FSC's plan. However, the response from large companies has been unexpectedly positive and aggressive.</li>
<li>We should consider the possibility that the preferred stock premium of companies whose dividend visibility has improved through this may continue to improve compared to those that have not.</li>
</ul>


Notable names that have proposed amendments to their articles of association for changing the dividend record date at this year's AGM include Hyundai Motor Group, POSCO Holdings, and Kakao Corp.
There were skeptical views on how much response local big-name companies would show to Korea FSC's plan. However, the response from large companies has been unexpectedly positive and aggressive.
We should consider the possibility that the preferred stock premium of companies whose dividend visibility has improved through this may continue to improve compared to those that have not.


Dividend Record Date Changes Already in Progress in Korea: Trading Ramifications

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nike-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6658:1" rel="noopener">Nike (NKE US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capital-one-financial-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:255:1" rel="noopener">Capital One Financial (COF US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/under-armour-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11401:1" rel="noopener">Under Armour (UAA US)</a> </li>
<li>For the thirteen weeks since inception ended 17 Feb the combined innovation portfolio was +2.4%, versus DJIA +0.2%, S&amp;P500 +2.9%, Nasdaq +5.8%, Russell2000 +5.2%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +4.3%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>This week the large-cap portfolio underperformed on a mini <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> sell-off while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10x-genomics-inc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35564:1" rel="noopener">10X Genomics (TXG US)</a> was strong in the small caps group. </li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are Nike (NKE US) , Capital One Financial (COF US) and Under Armour (UAA US) 
For the thirteen weeks since inception ended 17 Feb the combined innovation portfolio was +2.4%, versus DJIA +0.2%, S&amp;P500 +2.9%, Nasdaq +5.8%, Russell2000 +5.2%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +4.3%, all in US$ terms
This week the large-cap portfolio underperformed on a mini Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) sell-off while 10X Genomics (TXG US) was strong in the small caps group. 


The Innovations Portfolio - Week Thirteen

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor memories, the most volatile part of the chip market, have declined dramatically since June</li>
<li>During downturns memory chip prices typically collapse until they hit cost</li>
<li>NAND appears to be selling at or near cost, but DRAM still has room for further declines</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor memories, the most volatile part of the chip market, have declined dramatically since June
During downturns memory chip prices typically collapse until they hit cost
NAND appears to be selling at or near cost, but DRAM still has room for further declines


Memory Makers Update: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, WDC, Kioxia

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Memory Monitor: Latest Two Signals Show Inventory Problems Worsening; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

Signal #1 -- Micron's CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Pushing South Korea China Restrictions, Nanya Says Memory Bottom in 1Q23E

Firms are also significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Dividend Record Date Changes Already in Progress in Korea: Trading Ramifications

We currently see more swift and active progress in changing dividend record dates, signaling a shift in dividend arbitrage trading patterns and...

Sanghyun Park

The Innovations Portfolio - Week Thirteen

For the thirteen weeks since inception ended 17 Feb the combined innovation portfolio was +2.4%, versus DJIA +0.2%, S&P500 +2.9%, Nasdaq +5.8%,...

Pyari Menon

Memory Makers Update: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, WDC, Kioxia

The semiconductor memory market has collapsed, but the collapse is nearly over for Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, WDC, and Kioxia.

Jim Handy

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