Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record</li>
<li>The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend</li>
<li>The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.</li>
</ul>


October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record
The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend
The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.


October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The 4Q consensus DPS is ₩584, implying that this year's special dividend is ₩223 and the 4Q CAPEX is ₩12.62T.</li>
<li>From the 1P/Ord pair trade perspective, the possibility that the 1P discount will rise above 10% again is low in the short term.</li>
<li>We may have to prepare a trading setup aimed at the possibility that the CAPEX concerns may push the futures/spot into contango, leading to a spread opening.</li>
</ul>


The 4Q consensus DPS is ₩584, implying that this year's special dividend is ₩223 and the 4Q CAPEX is ₩12.62T.
From the 1P/Ord pair trade perspective, the possibility that the 1P discount will rise above 10% again is low in the short term.
We may have to prepare a trading setup aimed at the possibility that the CAPEX concerns may push the futures/spot into contango, leading to a spread opening.


Samsung Electronics Yearend DPS Revised Down

<ul>
<li>WSTS released a forecast for 26% growth in 2021 and 9% in 2022 </li>
<li>Prior WSTS forecasts have been overheated in up years and too modest in down years</li>
<li>If today's demand bubble continues, sub-10% 2022 growth is likely.  Otherwise, there could be a collapse.</li>
</ul>


WSTS released a forecast for 26% growth in 2021 and 9% in 2022 
Prior WSTS forecasts have been overheated in up years and too modest in down years
If today's demand bubble continues, sub-10% 2022 growth is likely.  Otherwise, there could be a collapse.


WSTS Semi Forecast Very Bullish for 2021-22, but Is It Realistic?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Privately-Held Kioxia is ripe for an IPO, but there's been no announcement</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the company's end market, NAND flash chips, is setting new revenue records</li>
<li>Bain &amp; Company may miss an important window by waiting too long to go public</li>
</ul>


Privately-Held Kioxia is ripe for an IPO, but there's been no announcement
Meanwhile, the company's end market, NAND flash chips, is setting new revenue records
Bain &amp; Company may miss an important window by waiting too long to go public


Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> is now the world’s largest smartphone AP SoC maker after consistent market share gains over the past 2 years.</li>
<li>Revenue growth should be supported by entry into the flagship mobile phone segment whilst margins should be underpinned by higher ASPs and product mix optimisation.</li>
<li>Attractive 6.4% forward dividend yield, with low risk of a negative surprise given its net cash balance sheet, a relatively low implied pay-out ratio, and muted earnings growth expectations.</li>
</ul>



Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is now the world’s largest smartphone AP SoC maker after consistent market share gains over the past 2 years.
Revenue growth should be supported by entry into the flagship mobile phone segment whilst margins should be underpinned by higher ASPs and product mix optimisation.
Attractive 6.4% forward dividend yield, with low risk of a negative surprise given its net cash balance sheet, a relatively low implied pay-out ratio, and muted earnings growth expectations.


2022 High Conviction: MediaTek, High Dividend Yield, Solid Fundamental Outlook, Strong Balance Sheet

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

October semiconductor revenues set a record once again, making the 2021 semiconductor market one to remember. A collapse appears unlikely in the...

Jim Handy

Samsung Electronics Yearend DPS Revised Down

Samsung's 4Q consensus DPS is ₩584, implying a special dividend of at least ₩200. It is possible that the CAPEX concerns may push the futures/spot...

Sanghyun Park

WSTS Semi Forecast Very Bullish for 2021-22, but Is It Realistic?

The semiconductor market is on a tear, and WSTS forecasts that next year will see solid growth. This Insight examines the likelihood that 2022...

Jim Handy

Will Kioxia IPO Miss Its Window?

Privately-held Kioxia has been hinting at an IPO for a year, and its end market has just set a record. Can the company afford to delay any longer,...

Jim Handy

2022 High Conviction: MediaTek, High Dividend Yield, Solid Fundamental Outlook, Strong Balance Sheet

In our 2022 High Conviction pick we revisit MediaTek, the world’s 4th largest fabless semiconductor company, its industry, fundamental outlook, and...

Wium Malan, CFA

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