Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>US equity indices led global markets in a post-election sharp decline in implied volatility.</li>
<li>With only 34 trading days left in 2024, investors might want to hedge the gains from a profitable year with tactical long puts.</li>
<li>Several markets make good candidates for long put positions due to a combination of cheap options and potentially bearish factors. One example being the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> </li>
</ul>


US equity indices led global markets in a post-election sharp decline in implied volatility.
With only 34 trading days left in 2024, investors might want to hedge the gains from a profitable year with tactical long puts.
Several markets make good candidates for long put positions due to a combination of cheap options and potentially bearish factors. One example being the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) 


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – 34 Trading Days Left in 2024, Year-End Positioning.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global equity markets continued their bearish trend in October, with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.3% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropping by 4.5%.</li><li>These declines were primarily driven by the significant sell-offs in major technology stocks and limited followthrough on anticipated stimulus measures from Beijing.</li><li>In the U.S. market, both the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ appeared set to close the month with gains stemming from expectations of tamer monetary policies and positive data (YoY inflation printing lower at 2.4% and YoY unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%), signalling a “soft landing”. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Global equity markets continued their bearish trend in October, with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.3% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropping by 4.5%.These declines were primarily driven by the significant sell-offs in major technology stocks and limited followthrough on anticipated stimulus measures from Beijing.In the U.S. market, both the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ appeared set to close the month with gains stemming from expectations of tamer monetary policies and positive data (YoY inflation printing lower at 2.4% and YoY unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%), signalling a “soft landing”. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Donald Trump is the first candidate to win non-consecutive terms as President since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. Winning the popular vote strengthens his mandate, with Senate/House also Republican. </li>
<li>Trump proposes to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%, make his income tax cuts permanent, de-regulate energy (and end the Ukraine war). Lower oil prices and faster growth likely. </li>
<li>Lower taxes and regulation, hence lower inflation/rates, would provide a fillip to equities. Conventional energy, banks/PE would win. India, Japan, SKorea, Germany, Russia would be winners, UK/NATO the losers. </li>
</ul>


Donald Trump is the first candidate to win non-consecutive terms as President since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. Winning the popular vote strengthens his mandate, with Senate/House also Republican. 
Trump proposes to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%, make his income tax cuts permanent, de-regulate energy (and end the Ukraine war). Lower oil prices and faster growth likely. 
Lower taxes and regulation, hence lower inflation/rates, would provide a fillip to equities. Conventional energy, banks/PE would win. India, Japan, SKorea, Germany, Russia would be winners, UK/NATO the losers. 


US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>WTR-CMI this week. In a tough week for the market, the WTR- CMI Index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials technology stocks dipped 0.6%, while the large-cap heavy S&amp;P 500 declined 1.4%, with the Russell 2000 inching up 0.1%.</li><li>Strong rebounds in NGVT, ECVT, LAC, PLL, and AXTA nearly offset sharp declines in EAF, CMP, and HXL. YTD, our index is slightly outperforming the Russell 2000, increasing 10.4% versus the broader index’s 9.0% improvement, although both trail the S&amp;P 500’s 20.1% increase.</li><li>On a Y/Y basis, the WTR-CMI Index has narrowed the performance gap with the S&amp;P 500, improving 32.9% versus the large-cap index’s 35.2% appreciation, with the Russell 2000 bringing up the rear with a 32.4% rebound.</li></ul>

WTR-CMI this week. In a tough week for the market, the WTR- CMI Index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials technology stocks dipped 0.6%, while the large-cap heavy S&amp;P 500 declined 1.4%, with the Russell 2000 inching up 0.1%.Strong rebounds in NGVT, ECVT, LAC, PLL, and AXTA nearly offset sharp declines in EAF, CMP, and HXL. YTD, our index is slightly outperforming the Russell 2000, increasing 10.4% versus the broader index’s 9.0% improvement, although both trail the S&amp;P 500’s 20.1% increase.On a Y/Y basis, the WTR-CMI Index has narrowed the performance gap with the S&amp;P 500, improving 32.9% versus the large-cap index’s 35.2% appreciation, with the Russell 2000 bringing up the rear with a 32.4% rebound.

Mat-Chem Notes - Supply-Demand Balancing Act and Geopolitics of Energy Transition

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.</li>
<li>We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.
We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.
We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025


Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – 34 Trading Days Left in 2024, Year-End Positioning.

Global equity indices saw a post-election volatility drop, making options cheap in several, but not all, markets. Consider hedging gains with...

Gaudenz Schneider

Monthly Equities - October 2024

Global equity markets continued their bearish trend in October, with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.3% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index...

CardinalStone

US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Mat-Chem Notes - Supply-Demand Balancing Act and Geopolitics of Energy Transition

In a tough week for the market, the WTR- CMI Index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials technology stocks dipped 0.6%, while the large-cap heavy...

Water Tower Research

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – 34 Trading Days Left in 2024, Year-End Positioning.

​Global equity indices saw a post-election volatility drop, making options cheap in several, but not all, markets. Consider hedging gains with...

Gaudenz Schneider

Monthly Equities - October 2024

Global equity markets continued their bearish trend in October, with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.3% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index...

CardinalStone

US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

​Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Mat-Chem Notes - Supply-Demand Balancing Act and Geopolitics of Energy Transition

In a tough week for the market, the WTR- CMI Index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials technology stocks dipped 0.6%, while the large-cap heavy...

Water Tower Research

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

Global equity indices saw a post-election volatility drop, making options cheap in several, but not all, markets. Consider hedging gains with...

Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...