Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Main takeaways: Brazilian Equities are on offer and provide solid value for long-only. If commodities are in for a rebound Brazil may be a decent option to seek exposure.</li><li>Plenty of recessionary clouds near mid-term and while fixed income remain the game in town, yields coming down may provide a narrow opportunity for equities. Regular EM readers here would know that we have been bullish on Brazilian Sovereigns since March.</li><li>The fundamental drivers behind this thesis have roughly been two folded: The market being over-pessimistic of the re-ascension of Lula to the office and over-concerned with the inflationary resilience of the Brazilian Economy.</li></ul>

Main takeaways: Brazilian Equities are on offer and provide solid value for long-only. If commodities are in for a rebound Brazil may be a decent option to seek exposure.Plenty of recessionary clouds near mid-term and while fixed income remain the game in town, yields coming down may provide a narrow opportunity for equities. Regular EM readers here would know that we have been bullish on Brazilian Sovereigns since March.The fundamental drivers behind this thesis have roughly been two folded: The market being over-pessimistic of the re-ascension of Lula to the office and over-concerned with the inflationary resilience of the Brazilian Economy.

EM by EM #13 – A sweetspot for Brazilian Equities?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has been in the Frenzy territory for several weeks, indicating at least a temporary pullback in the stock markets. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the Equity Put/Call Ratio, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, the SKEW Index, and ETF and Mutual Fund Flows all push the index toward Frenzy.</li>
<li>Together with slower economic momentum globally and pockets of elevated stock market valuation, like US tech stocks, downside looms.</li>
</ul>


Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has been in the Frenzy territory for several weeks, indicating at least a temporary pullback in the stock markets. S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX).
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the Equity Put/Call Ratio, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, the SKEW Index, and ETF and Mutual Fund Flows all push the index toward Frenzy.
Together with slower economic momentum globally and pockets of elevated stock market valuation, like US tech stocks, downside looms.


This Is a ‘Frenzy’ Market, and the Rally Should End Now!

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Summer Lull

<ul>
<li>Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.</li>
<li>China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.</li>
</ul>


Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.
China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.


Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li>WTR-CMI last week. In a flat to down market last week, with S&amp;P 500 holding steady with 0.1% price change and Russell 2000 losing 0.9% of its value, our proprietary WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and material technology companies appreciated 0.5% for the week, led by 8.5% appreciation in ALB, which seemed to pull along other lithium names, including PLL, LAC and LTHM, which all posted 2-4% returns.</li><li>EAF was the index’s laggard, losing 9.4% of its value, possibly due to continued softness in the iron ore and steel production sectors.</li><li>EU relooks at GMO crops. Long a bulwark against expansion of GMO crops, the EU is taking another look at the 2001 rules which were a major obstacle to market penetration by genetically modified seeds that provide better yields, higher nutritional value, and require less water and less pesticides to produce.</li></ul>

WTR-CMI last week. In a flat to down market last week, with S&amp;P 500 holding steady with 0.1% price change and Russell 2000 losing 0.9% of its value, our proprietary WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and material technology companies appreciated 0.5% for the week, led by 8.5% appreciation in ALB, which seemed to pull along other lithium names, including PLL, LAC and LTHM, which all posted 2-4% returns.EAF was the index’s laggard, losing 9.4% of its value, possibly due to continued softness in the iron ore and steel production sectors.EU relooks at GMO crops. Long a bulwark against expansion of GMO crops, the EU is taking another look at the 2001 rules which were a major obstacle to market penetration by genetically modified seeds that provide better yields, higher nutritional value, and require less water and less pesticides to produce.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EM by EM #13 – A sweetspot for Brazilian Equities?

Main takeaways:Brazilian Equities are on offer and provide solid value for long-only. If commodities are in for a rebound Brazil may be a decent...

Steno Research

This Is a ‘Frenzy’ Market, and the Rally Should End Now!

Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index has remained in 'Frenzy' territory for over two weeks. Based on history, this suggests a pullback in equity...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Summer Lull

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

Markets are incredibly eager to discount lower inflation, pushing the Fear & Frenzy Sentiment further into Frenzy territory.

Jeroen Blokland

Mat Chem Notes Week Ending July 9, 2023

EAF was the index’s laggard, losing 9.4% of its value, possibly due to continued softness in the iron ore and steel production sectors.

Water Tower Research