Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>WTR-CMI last week. In what was a mixed week for the market, with the Russell 2000 appreciating 0.6% and the S&amp;P 500 remaining virtually unchanged at (0.1%), our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks underperformed, declining 0.3%, as lithium stocks led by ALB suffered from Chile’s decision to nationalize its lithium mining industry, once existing contracts with private companies (mainly SQM and ALB) expire.</li><li>SHW exits another paint market. When the company acquired Valspar, it did not only shore up its presence in the North American big-box distribution channel and expand its industrial coatings business, but it also gained exposure to non-North American paint markets, specifically China and Australia.</li><li>SHW divested the Australian business<span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);"> two years ago and now has also found a buyer (Akzo) for its </span>Chinese paint business<span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">, which may have contributed to SHW topping the list of WTR-CMI stocks appreciating last week.</span></li></ul>

WTR-CMI last week. In what was a mixed week for the market, with the Russell 2000 appreciating 0.6% and the S&amp;P 500 remaining virtually unchanged at (0.1%), our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks underperformed, declining 0.3%, as lithium stocks led by ALB suffered from Chile’s decision to nationalize its lithium mining industry, once existing contracts with private companies (mainly SQM and ALB) expire.SHW exits another paint market. When the company acquired Valspar, it did not only shore up its presence in the North American big-box distribution channel and expand its industrial coatings business, but it also gained exposure to non-North American paint markets, specifically China and Australia.SHW divested the Australian business two years ago and now has also found a buyer (Akzo) for its Chinese paint business, which may have contributed to SHW topping the list of WTR-CMI stocks appreciating last week.

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 21, 2023

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under SPX 4,200.</li>
<li>A number of breakdown coming through in Asia - Korea's bear impulse and Taiwan's break of trendline support that turns the cycle to bearish. Japan will lag.</li>
<li>SPX MACD bear turn is in line with our late April bear phase. A cycle trough is due in 6 weeks time (second week of June).</li>
</ul>


Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under SPX 4,200.
A number of breakdown coming through in Asia - Korea's bear impulse and Taiwan's break of trendline support that turns the cycle to bearish. Japan will lag.
SPX MACD bear turn is in line with our late April bear phase. A cycle trough is due in 6 weeks time (second week of June).


<ul><li>Broad equity indexes remained range-bound, as the S&amp;P 500 and the MSCI World Index ended the week -0.06% and +0.07%, respectively.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 has been stuck between 4,070 and 4,170 for the past three weeks.</li><li>Small caps finished slightly better, with the Russell 2000 up 0.59% from last week.</li></ul>

Broad equity indexes remained range-bound, as the S&amp;P 500 and the MSCI World Index ended the week -0.06% and +0.07%, respectively.The S&amp;P 500 has been stuck between 4,070 and 4,170 for the past three weeks.Small caps finished slightly better, with the Russell 2000 up 0.59% from last week.

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 21, 2023

<ul><li>WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended April 21, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 7.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 0.4%). Advanced Transportation Solutions (67.2% of the index) contributed to the index underperformance, falling 10.2%, while Energy Technology (8.3% of the index) was down 4.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.5%.</li><li>Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 27.6x versus 18.9x for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>Consensus estimates changes: During the week ended April 21, 2023, there were four increases (three in Energy Technology, and one in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates.</li></ul>

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended April 21, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 7.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 0.4%). Advanced Transportation Solutions (67.2% of the index) contributed to the index underperformance, falling 10.2%, while Energy Technology (8.3% of the index) was down 4.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.5%.Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 27.6x versus 18.9x for the S&amp;P 500.Consensus estimates changes: During the week ended April 21, 2023, there were four increases (three in Energy Technology, and one in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended April 21, 2023

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US equity prices declined -20% in real terms from 2021 Q4 to 2023 Q1, identical in magnitude to what transpired over the same time period after the internet bubble peak.</li>
<li>In contrast to the late-1990s, corporations are responding to rising unit labour costs by increasing selling prices, but this has produced economy-wide inflation.</li>
<li>Investors cannot have both rich equity valuations and high operating margins when the latter is due to companies simply raising prices to cover higher costs.</li>
</ul>


US equity prices declined -20% in real terms from 2021 Q4 to 2023 Q1, identical in magnitude to what transpired over the same time period after the internet bubble peak.
In contrast to the late-1990s, corporations are responding to rising unit labour costs by increasing selling prices, but this has produced economy-wide inflation.
Investors cannot have both rich equity valuations and high operating margins when the latter is due to companies simply raising prices to cover higher costs.


US Companies Preserve Profit Margins Via Higher Prices to Avoid Repeat of 2000-2003 Environment

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 21, 2023

In what was a mixed week for the market, with the Russell 2000 appreciating 0.6% and the S&P 500 remaining virtually unchanged at (0.1%)

Water Tower Research

Late April Break for a 6-Week Decline

Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under...

Thomas Schroeder

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 21, 2023

Broad equity indexes remained range-bound, as the S&P 500 and the MSCI World Index ended the week -0.06% and +0.07%, respectively.

Water Tower Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended April 21, 2023

During the week ended April 21, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 7.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down...

Water Tower Research

US Companies Preserve Profit Margins Via Higher Prices to Avoid Repeat of 2000-2003 Environment

US corporations are fixated with preserving operating margins by any means, including higher inflation. Investors cannot expect rich equity...

DeSaque Macro Research