Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The December US Employment report shows a weaker outlook than the headline suggests.  </li>
<li>A loss of over 1.5 million full-time jobs in December.</li>
<li>Excluding government jobs, an exceptionally low number of new full-time jobs were created over the last year.</li>
</ul>


The December US Employment report shows a weaker outlook than the headline suggests.  
A loss of over 1.5 million full-time jobs in December.
Excluding government jobs, an exceptionally low number of new full-time jobs were created over the last year.


US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>There is nothing new about misreading the Federal Reserve. Markets over-reacted to a speech by Chairman Powell in mid-Dec.</li>
<li>Markets took his speech as an early Christmas gift and rallied in full steam. Both equity and bond markets ended the year euphorically.</li>
<li>Banks are stable, Credit conditions accessible. Delinquency rates not alarming (yet) but are ticking up. Rate hikes not ruled out, if inflation risks rise. Rate policy path remains data dependant.</li>
</ul>


There is nothing new about misreading the Federal Reserve. Markets over-reacted to a speech by Chairman Powell in mid-Dec.
Markets took his speech as an early Christmas gift and rallied in full steam. Both equity and bond markets ended the year euphorically.
Banks are stable, Credit conditions accessible. Delinquency rates not alarming (yet) but are ticking up. Rate hikes not ruled out, if inflation risks rise. Rate policy path remains data dependant.


Mint Macro Roundup: FOMC Minutes Stresses Fed's Hawkishness and Market's Misplaced Optimism

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Professional forecasters, expecting a negative return of 2.5% on average for 2023, missed the S&amp;P 500 Index by a whopping 26%.</li>
<li>And based on their 2024 forecasts, with none of them daring to expect a return of 20% or more, there is an 85% likelihood that they will be wrong again. </li>
<li>Another 20% return on the S&amp;P 500 Index should definitely not be ruled out. Not based on historical return data nor in a bold macro environment.</li>
</ul>


Professional forecasters, expecting a negative return of 2.5% on average for 2023, missed the S&amp;P 500 Index by a whopping 26%.
And based on their 2024 forecasts, with none of them daring to expect a return of 20% or more, there is an 85% likelihood that they will be wrong again. 
Another 20% return on the S&amp;P 500 Index should definitely not be ruled out. Not based on historical return data nor in a bold macro environment.


The Average Return Doesn't Exist! - Most Professional Forecasters Will Be Wrong Again!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>We expect the Fed Funds rate to decline a minimum of 50bp this year, starting with a 25bp cut in Jun'24. Consequently, bonds are likely to generate solidly positive returns. </li>
<li>Despite M2 contracting YoY for 12 months, core inflation still remains too deeply entrenched, and will consequently not allow any earlier easing. But a slower economy will help rein-in inflation. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P500's CAPE ratio is 32.27x, nearly double its mean of 17.07x, so equities are likely to struggle in Q1CY24. We recommend being Overweight Bonds and Underweight Equities this quarter. </li>
</ul>


We expect the Fed Funds rate to decline a minimum of 50bp this year, starting with a 25bp cut in Jun'24. Consequently, bonds are likely to generate solidly positive returns. 
Despite M2 contracting YoY for 12 months, core inflation still remains too deeply entrenched, and will consequently not allow any earlier easing. But a slower economy will help rein-in inflation. 
The S&amp;P500's CAPE ratio is 32.27x, nearly double its mean of 17.07x, so equities are likely to struggle in Q1CY24. We recommend being Overweight Bonds and Underweight Equities this quarter. 


US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...

Rikki Malik

Mint Macro Roundup: FOMC Minutes Stresses Fed's Hawkishness and Market's Misplaced Optimism

Nothing new about misreading the Federal Reserve. Markets over-reacted to a speech by Chairman Powell in mid-Dec. FOMC minutes is easing the hangover.

Mint Finance

The Average Return Doesn't Exist! - Most Professional Forecasters Will Be Wrong Again!

Professional investment forecasters got it extremely wrong in 2023, missing the S&P 500 Index return by a whopping 26%. And they will be wrong...

Jeroen Blokland

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

Core inflation remains entrenched despite a year of YoY decline in M2. But we expect 50bp of rate cuts in 2024, starting with 25bp in Jun'24. We...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

​The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...

Rikki Malik

Mint Macro Roundup: FOMC Minutes Stresses Fed's Hawkishness and Market's Misplaced Optimism

Nothing new about misreading the Federal Reserve. Markets over-reacted to a speech by Chairman Powell in mid-Dec. FOMC minutes is easing the hangover.

Mint Finance

The Average Return Doesn't Exist! - Most Professional Forecasters Will Be Wrong Again!

Professional investment forecasters got it extremely wrong in 2023, missing the S&P 500 Index return by a whopping 26%. And they will be wrong...

Jeroen Blokland

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

Core inflation remains entrenched despite a year of YoY decline in M2. But we expect 50bp of rate cuts in 2024, starting with 25bp in Jun'24. We...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...