Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.</li>
<li>Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.</li>
<li>Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.</li>
</ul>


Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.
Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.
Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX close flat and keeps the 4100 support; CPI inline but Rates higher; USD stronger as Fed Hawks back out; Telsa +7% Bullish Initiation; Boeing Again-massive India order.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 133. 15;  BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP print, don't expect much chg ST; Massive ShareBuyback  from  Idemetsu Kosan</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Global EV Sales in 2022  was $388 billion, +58%YoY. Is this what it will take to get to Japanese OEM to step on the gas ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX close flat and keeps the 4100 support; CPI inline but Rates higher; USD stronger as Fed Hawks back out; Telsa +7% Bullish Initiation; Boeing Again-massive India order.
JAPAN.  Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 133. 15;  BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP print, don't expect much chg ST; Massive ShareBuyback  from  Idemetsu Kosan
DAILY NUGGET. Global EV Sales in 2022  was $388 billion, +58%YoY. Is this what it will take to get to Japanese OEM to step on the gas ?


Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q4 results largely met our expectations with modest improvements QoQ for mobile operating losses and decent growth for eCommerce and fintech</li>
<li>A meaningful rebound for the mobile segment is more likely to fall in H2 as cost reductions take time to kick in </li>
<li>Results for eCommerce and fintech were more encouraging but less relevant as long as the mobile segment struggles.  We remain at Neutral</li>
</ul>


Q4 results largely met our expectations with modest improvements QoQ for mobile operating losses and decent growth for eCommerce and fintech
A meaningful rebound for the mobile segment is more likely to fall in H2 as cost reductions take time to kick in 
Results for eCommerce and fintech were more encouraging but less relevant as long as the mobile segment struggles.  We remain at Neutral


Rakuten (Neutral) - Q4 22 Results Reaction: Modest Mobile Improvements but Uncertainty Remains

<ul>
<li>Core mobile revenue fell 4% but that is an improvement from 7-8% declines over the last few quarters and including value-added sales (VAS), retail mobile spend is up</li>
<li>Competitive challenges remain with elevated churn and visible declines in roaming revenue from Rakuten (although sequential change has been modest)</li>
<li>KDDI has kept guidance for FY22 operating income growth unchanged despite unanticipated expenses for rising fuel costs and the July network failure</li>
</ul>


Core mobile revenue fell 4% but that is an improvement from 7-8% declines over the last few quarters and including value-added sales (VAS), retail mobile spend is up
Competitive challenges remain with elevated churn and visible declines in roaming revenue from Rakuten (although sequential change has been modest)
KDDI has kept guidance for FY22 operating income growth unchanged despite unanticipated expenses for rising fuel costs and the July network failure


KDDI (Buy) - Q3 22 Results Reaction: Super Mobile but Full-Year Targets Look Challenging

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>While the holiday shortened week didn't see much action in Asia, but there was one more ADR filing in the US, adding to the mini-pipeline.</li>
<li>Adani's ongoing FPO was the only live deal this week, although it had enough drama to make up for the lack of other deals.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
While the holiday shortened week didn't see much action in Asia, but there was one more ADR filing in the US, adding to the mini-pipeline.
Adani's ongoing FPO was the only live deal this week, although it had enough drama to make up for the lack of other deals.


ECM Weekly (29th Jan 2023) - Adani, Oasis, Mankind Pharma, ZJLD, India IPO Bookrunners

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Outlook for Japanese Retail in 2023

Most Japanese retailers can look forward to a good year in 2023 but there will be challenges for formats like supermarkets where consolidation is...

Michael Causton

Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

CPI leaves markets confused, but Beta and cycliclals bid anwyay. Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP...

Mark Chadwick

Rakuten (Neutral) - Q4 22 Results Reaction: Modest Mobile Improvements but Uncertainty Remains

Financial results largely met expectations although mobile uncertainty continues to overshadow decent eCommerce and fintech performance

Kirk Boodry

KDDI (Buy) - Q3 22 Results Reaction: Super Mobile but Full-Year Targets Look Challenging

Mobile revenue erosion appears to be improving but unanticipated costs for rising fuel costs and the July network failure stand in the way of FY22...

Kirk Boodry

ECM Weekly (29th Jan 2023) - Adani, Oasis, Mankind Pharma, ZJLD, India IPO Bookrunners

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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