Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect MediaTek Dimensity 8000/8100 and 9000 are targeting shipment of ~30-40mn and 5-10mn sets respectively, which means high-end 5G smartphone chipset will aim at 10-14% 5G shipment in 2022.</li>
<li>We consider the inventory argument raised for China smartphone could be a kind of  fake issue.</li>
<li>In 5G era, the PMIC is about 2~3 times of 4G in size with the mature nodes.</li>
</ul>


We expect MediaTek Dimensity 8000/8100 and 9000 are targeting shipment of ~30-40mn and 5-10mn sets respectively, which means high-end 5G smartphone chipset will aim at 10-14% 5G shipment in 2022.
We consider the inventory argument raised for China smartphone could be a kind of  fake issue.
In 5G era, the PMIC is about 2~3 times of 4G in size with the mature nodes.


MediaTek (2454.TT): We Expect High-End 5G Smartphone Chipset Will Aim at 10-14% Shipment in 2022.

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> goal to be the #1 semi player in the world in danger</li>
<li>An internal business audit being performed which is an indication of what to do with strategy</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> has always been the benchmark; does the focus change ?</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) goal to be the #1 semi player in the world in danger
An internal business audit being performed which is an indication of what to do with strategy

TSMC (2330 TT) has always been the benchmark; does the focus change ?


The Conundrum for Samsung - What to Do Foundry?

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>SMIC had reported a very exciting outlook in 1Q22, and both of revenue and GM are rising up to US$1,817~1,848.7mn and 36~38% respectively, which is growing at 15~17% QoQ.</li>
<li>SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because of the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in 2022, which's lager than UMC’s US$3bn.</li>
<li>China is still 3-4 generations behind TSMC, which is a big gap to catch up with.</li>
</ul>


SMIC had reported a very exciting outlook in 1Q22, and both of revenue and GM are rising up to US$1,817~1,848.7mn and 36~38% respectively, which is growing at 15~17% QoQ.
SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because of the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in 2022, which's lager than UMC’s US$3bn.
China is still 3-4 generations behind TSMC, which is a big gap to catch up with.


SMIC (0981.HK): Raising CapEx to $5bn in 2022. Exciting News, or Fierce Competition Ahead?

<ul>
<li>In our estimate, WinSemi’s 4Q21 revenue/GM is NT$70bn/38.9% and 1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$68bn/38% respectively . Usually, the first quarter of the year is a low season. </li>
<li>For WinSemi capacity management, the company will expand once they find the utilization being reaching to 85%, or above. </li>
<li>For the inventory issues that some people might be arguing with, WinSemi did not see any sign to worry about so far. </li>
</ul>


In our estimate, WinSemi’s 4Q21 revenue/GM is NT$70bn/38.9% and 1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$68bn/38% respectively . Usually, the first quarter of the year is a low season. 
For WinSemi capacity management, the company will expand once they find the utilization being reaching to 85%, or above. 
For the inventory issues that some people might be arguing with, WinSemi did not see any sign to worry about so far. 


WinSemi (3105.TT): Usually, the First Quarter of the Year Is a Low Season.

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>It'll take another 3-5 years of further development for VR and AR products to reach the level of user experience and reduction in cost necessary for wide commercial adoption. </li>
<li>The emergence of blockbuster AAA content will aid the large-scale adoption of Metaverse hardware, user generated contents are much lower in development cost,  a trend pioneered by Roblox &amp;Epic Games.</li>
<li>A-Share listed companies mainly focus on hardware value chain. China's video game regulator hasn't approved any new titles since July 2021. Leading Chinese companies are focusing on the commercial application.  </li>
</ul>


It'll take another 3-5 years of further development for VR and AR products to reach the level of user experience and reduction in cost necessary for wide commercial adoption. 
The emergence of blockbuster AAA content will aid the large-scale adoption of Metaverse hardware, user generated contents are much lower in development cost,  a trend pioneered by Roblox &amp;Epic Games.
A-Share listed companies mainly focus on hardware value chain. China's video game regulator hasn't approved any new titles since July 2021. Leading Chinese companies are focusing on the commercial application.  


Virtual Smoke and Mirror—Vision to Reality

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

MediaTek (2454.TT): We Expect High-End 5G Smartphone Chipset Will Aim at 10-14% Shipment in 2022.

We expect MediaTek Dimensity 8000/8100 is targeting shipment of around 30-40mn sets in 2022, and Dimensity 9000 is targeting shipment of 5-10mn...

Patrick Liao

The Conundrum for Samsung - What to Do Foundry?

Samsung Electronics' believes that foundry will be a key point of future diversification and growth but it seems they have run into a problem. ...

Ken S. Kim

SMIC (0981.HK): Raising CapEx to $5bn in 2022. Exciting News, or Fierce Competition Ahead?

SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in...

Patrick Liao

WinSemi (3105.TT): Usually, the First Quarter of the Year Is a Low Season.

In our estimate, WinSemi’s 4Q21 revenue/GM is NT$70bn/38.9% and 1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$65bn/36% respectively . Usually, the first quarter of the...

Patrick Liao

Virtual Smoke and Mirror—Vision to Reality

The recent surge in Metaverse have brought VR & AR back into the focus of the market. So is the Metaverse finally ready for prime time or still a...

Evelyn Zhang

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