Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>QCOM estimates ~5% Android revenues growth Cagr to FY29, Automotive 22%, IoT 21%. If QCOM keeps Apple business, revenue Cagr will be 9% to FY29. If QCOM loses it: 6%.</li>
<li>Mngt forecasts high Opex control, target at 22% of revenue, which looks aggressive. Opex reached 31% in FY23-24 . At 22% Opex, Operating Profit would grow ~13% Cagr to FY29.</li>
<li>Android growth looks low, Opex control demanding. As such, we could conclude that 10% Operating Profit Cagr is more likely than 13%. Even with lower growth, the stock is cheap. </li>
</ul>


QCOM estimates ~5% Android revenues growth Cagr to FY29, Automotive 22%, IoT 21%. If QCOM keeps Apple business, revenue Cagr will be 9% to FY29. If QCOM loses it: 6%.
Mngt forecasts high Opex control, target at 22% of revenue, which looks aggressive. Opex reached 31% in FY23-24 . At 22% Opex, Operating Profit would grow ~13% Cagr to FY29.
Android growth looks low, Opex control demanding. As such, we could conclude that 10% Operating Profit Cagr is more likely than 13%. Even with lower growth, the stock is cheap. 


Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Qualcomm's latest quarterly earnings reflect both positive trajectories and ongoing challenges.</li><li>The firm's reported non-GAAP revenue of $10.2 billion and earnings per share of $2.69 surpassed their guidance, driven primarily by strong performance in their chipset and licensing businesses.</li><li>The chipset division generated $8.7 billion, while the licensing segment contributed $1.5 billion.</li></ul>

Qualcomm's latest quarterly earnings reflect both positive trajectories and ongoing challenges.The firm's reported non-GAAP revenue of $10.2 billion and earnings per share of $2.69 surpassed their guidance, driven primarily by strong performance in their chipset and licensing businesses.The chipset division generated $8.7 billion, while the licensing segment contributed $1.5 billion.

Qualcomm Hits Record Growth in Automotive and IoT

<ul>
<li>Sept-24 result and Dec-24 guidance beat expectations by ~5%. Results show 3 important and sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G and AI penetration), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC).</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are moderately low. Stock valuations at average, reflecting doubts on Auto and PC addressable market and Arm lawsuits. QCOM management mentions “broad, well-established rights for custom CPU”.</li>
<li>Stock is up 4% during trading hours, another 7%  after results. Arm lawsuit is not simple / binary, with both parties overreaching, in our view. The stock has more upside.</li>
</ul>


Sept-24 result and Dec-24 guidance beat expectations by ~5%. Results show 3 important and sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G and AI penetration), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC).
Consensus expectations are moderately low. Stock valuations at average, reflecting doubts on Auto and PC addressable market and Arm lawsuits. QCOM management mentions “broad, well-established rights for custom CPU”.
Stock is up 4% during trading hours, another 7%  after results. Arm lawsuit is not simple / binary, with both parties overreaching, in our view. The stock has more upside.


Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Sorry about the coy title. Today's idea is Qualcomm. I think there’s a confluence of reasons that Qualcomm should lead to some short-term share gains and outsized share performance.</li><li>What tipped me off is that Amon Cristiano and the entire executive team shifted their compensation a bit earlier than the typical December granting cadence.</li><li>They usually report earnings in early November, so I wondered what could make them want to take shares before earnings instead of after. After about 20 minutes of searching, I found a pretty easy reason.</li></ul>

Sorry about the coy title. Today's idea is Qualcomm. I think there’s a confluence of reasons that Qualcomm should lead to some short-term share gains and outsized share performance.What tipped me off is that Amon Cristiano and the entire executive team shifted their compensation a bit earlier than the typical December granting cadence.They usually report earnings in early November, so I wondered what could make them want to take shares before earnings instead of after. After about 20 minutes of searching, I found a pretty easy reason.

<ul><li>Qualcomm Inc. reported financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024, demonstrating significant achievements and facing certain market challenges.</li><li>The company's non-GAAP revenue reached $9.4 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.33, surpassing the midpoint of their guidance.</li><li>The core driver of this performance was their chipset business, generating revenues of $8.1 billion, underscored by sequential growth in the automotive and IoT sectors and consistent demand for Snapdragon mobile platforms across leading smartphones.</li></ul>

Qualcomm Inc. reported financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024, demonstrating significant achievements and facing certain market challenges.The company's non-GAAP revenue reached $9.4 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.33, surpassing the midpoint of their guidance.The core driver of this performance was their chipset business, generating revenues of $8.1 billion, underscored by sequential growth in the automotive and IoT sectors and consistent demand for Snapdragon mobile platforms across leading smartphones.

Qualcomm Incorporated: Achieving Growth Through Internet of Things (IoT) & Diversification Strategy! - Major Drivers

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

QCOM expects 5% Android revenue growth, 22% in Automotive, 21% in IoT to FY29. Opex target at 22% of revenue, implying 13% Operating Profit Cagr....

Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm Hits Record Growth in Automotive and IoT

Qualcomm's latest quarterly earnings reflect both positive trajectories and ongoing challenges. The firm's reported non-GAAP revenue of $10.2...

Baptista Research

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

3 sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G, AI), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC). Main concern is Arm lawsuit, not a simple...

Nicolas Baratte

Idea in Smartphones

Sorry about the coy title. Today's idea is Qualcomm. I think there’s a confluence of reasons that Qualcomm should lead to some short-term share...

Fabricated Knowledge

Qualcomm Incorporated: Achieving Growth Through Internet of Things (IoT) & Diversification Strategy! - Major Drivers

Qualcomm Inc. reported financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024, demonstrating significant achievements and facing certain market...

Baptista Research

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Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

​QCOM expects 5% Android revenue growth, 22% in Automotive, 21% in IoT to FY29. Opex target at 22% of revenue, implying 13% Operating Profit Cagr....

Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm Hits Record Growth in Automotive and IoT

Qualcomm's latest quarterly earnings reflect both positive trajectories and ongoing challenges. The firm's reported non-GAAP revenue of $10.2...

Baptista Research

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

3 sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G, AI), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC). Main concern is Arm lawsuit, not a simple...

Nicolas Baratte

Idea in Smartphones

Sorry about the coy title. Today's idea is Qualcomm. I think there’s a confluence of reasons that Qualcomm should lead to some short-term share...

Fabricated Knowledge

Qualcomm Incorporated: Achieving Growth Through Internet of Things (IoT) & Diversification Strategy! - Major Drivers

Qualcomm Inc. reported financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024, demonstrating significant achievements and facing certain market...

Baptista Research

QCOM expects 5% Android revenue growth, 22% in Automotive, 21% in IoT to FY29. Opex target at 22% of revenue, implying 13% Operating Profit Cagr....