New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight market</li><li>Mainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growth</li><li>Port of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment</li></ul>

Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight marketMainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growthPort of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in Chicago Skyway.</li>
<li>Over the past few months, ALX has garnered interest from IFM which has increased its stake to 19.99%. IFM had publicly opposed this acquisition.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamic and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in Chicago Skyway.
Over the past few months, ALX has garnered interest from IFM which has increased its stake to 19.99%. IFM had publicly opposed this acquisition.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamic and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Atlas Arteria Placement - How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Pricing benefits flowing: We estimate average realised unit container revenue grew ~+14% in FY22, more than mitigating cost inflation</li><li>Modest volume growth: Total trade tonnage was flat during FY22 with a modest mix benefit</li><li>Higher capex over next few years: Capex is due to rise in FY23 after several subdued years</li></ul>

Pricing benefits flowing: We estimate average realised unit container revenue grew ~+14% in FY22, more than mitigating cost inflationModest volume growth: Total trade tonnage was flat during FY22 with a modest mix benefitHigher capex over next few years: Capex is due to rise in FY23 after several subdued years

Port of Tauranga: FY22 — Earnings Cruising, Valuation Anchored

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a robust FY22 result with EBITDA up +9% and reported NPAT (NZ$111.3m, +9%) in excess of the top end of its previous target band (NZ$103m-NZ$110m).</li><li>POT enjoyed a very strong improvement in operating cashflows due to the adverse prior year working capital movement.</li><li>The company will pay a fully imputed final dividend of 8.2c</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a robust FY22 result with EBITDA up +9% and reported NPAT (NZ$111.3m, +9%) in excess of the top end of its previous target band (NZ$103m-NZ$110m).POT enjoyed a very strong improvement in operating cashflows due to the adverse prior year working capital movement.The company will pay a fully imputed final dividend of 8.2c

Port of Tauranga: FY22 Result Initial Thoughts

<div><ul><li>Subdued volume backdrop: Third quarter volumes were solid in an unfavourable environment and represented a sequential improvement after a difficult first half</li><li>Cost pressures: Cost inflation is significant for NPH currently</li><li>Cruise coming back: NPH has 89 cruise vessels scheduled to visit during the 2022–23 season</li></ul><p></p></div>

Subdued volume backdrop: Third quarter volumes were solid in an unfavourable environment and represented a sequential improvement after a difficult first halfCost pressures: Cost inflation is significant for NPH currentlyCruise coming back: NPH has 89 cruise vessels scheduled to visit during the 2022–23 season

Napier Port: Third Quarter Highlights Cost Pressures

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Transport Trends: Mixed Bag

The post-pandemic world is a mixed bag for the transport sector: aviation is enjoying an expected and much needed resurgence; global airfreight...

Forsyth Barr

Atlas Arteria Placement - How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder

Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in...

Sumeet Singh

Port of Tauranga: FY22 — Earnings Cruising, Valuation Anchored

Port of Tauranga, having re-rated over recent months to ~36x one year forward PE and ~23x EV/EBITDA, is now trading on fair to full earnings...

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga: FY22 Result Initial Thoughts

Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a robust FY22 result with EBITDA up +9% and reported NPAT (NZ$111.3m, +9%) in excess of the top end of its previous...

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port: Third Quarter Highlights Cost Pressures

Napier Port's (NPH) 3Q22 result showed sequential improvement following a tough first half

Forsyth Barr

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