New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga's (POT) FY23 result highlighted deteriorating cago volumes and intense cost pressures but strong pricing gains.</li><li>These three themes are likely to remain through FY24; we still expect earnings growth but at a more subdued pace.</li><li>Softer cargo trends reflect weaker cyclical conditions, with container imports most impacted. </li></ul>

Port of Tauranga's (POT) FY23 result highlighted deteriorating cago volumes and intense cost pressures but strong pricing gains.These three themes are likely to remain through FY24; we still expect earnings growth but at a more subdued pace.Softer cargo trends reflect weaker cyclical conditions, with container imports most impacted. 

Port of Tauranga - FY23 — Pricing to the Rescue

<ul><li>Recent third party cargo volume data for Port of Tauranga (POT) is supportive to FY23 earnings growth but highlights some mix shifts over the past six months.</li><li>Log export growth has returned as a result of Cyclone Gabrielle forcing the harvesting of storm damaged trees in Central North Island forests.</li><li>In contrast, import container volumes have softened due to a more competitive Ports of Auckland (POAL) and a weakening consumer backdrop with likely de-stocking across the New Zealand supply chain.  </li></ul>

Recent third party cargo volume data for Port of Tauranga (POT) is supportive to FY23 earnings growth but highlights some mix shifts over the past six months.Log export growth has returned as a result of Cyclone Gabrielle forcing the harvesting of storm damaged trees in Central North Island forests.In contrast, import container volumes have softened due to a more competitive Ports of Auckland (POAL) and a weakening consumer backdrop with likely de-stocking across the New Zealand supply chain.  

Port of Tauranga - Logging Up Fewer Containers

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Auckland Intl Airport / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a>  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.</li>
<li>Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.
Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.


Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

<ul><li>For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.</li><li>This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.</li><li>We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. </li></ul>

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. 

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Port of Tauranga - FY23 — Pricing to the Rescue

Port of Tauranga's (POT) FY23 result highlighted deteriorating cago volumes and intense cost pressures but strong pricing gains.

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga - Logging Up Fewer Containers

Recent third party cargo volume data for Port of Tauranga (POT) is supportive to FY23 earnings growth but highlights some mix shifts over the past...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

Auckland Airport just reported its full year results, this in effect frees its largest shareholder, Auckland City Council to progress with its...

Sumeet Singh

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down. This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year...

Forsyth Barr

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