New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.</li><li>Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.</li><li>The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. </li></ul>

A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. 

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We downgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL following a weak first quarter trading update at its Annual Shareholder Meeting, with first time FY24 NPAT guidance well below consensus expectations.</li><li>The soft guidance follows a tough first quarter, with total trade down -9% against a weak first quarter in FY23 when total trade was down -7%.</li><li>The volatility in freight flows has increased in recent periods as inventory levels across the supply chain normalise post-COVID, reflecting reduced end consumer demand. </li></ul>

We downgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL following a weak first quarter trading update at its Annual Shareholder Meeting, with first time FY24 NPAT guidance well below consensus expectations.The soft guidance follows a tough first quarter, with total trade down -9% against a weak first quarter in FY23 when total trade was down -7%.The volatility in freight flows has increased in recent periods as inventory levels across the supply chain normalise post-COVID, reflecting reduced end consumer demand. 

Port of Tauranga - Weighed Down by Containers

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Auckland Intl Airport / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Auckland City Council plans to sell around 4.5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a> to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.</li>
<li>The deal is very well flagged with Auckland City Council having publicly stated their intention to sell 7% of the stock in Jun 2023.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Auckland City Council plans to sell around 4.5% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.
The deal is very well flagged with Auckland City Council having publicly stated their intention to sell 7% of the stock in Jun 2023.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Auckland Airport Placement - Well Flagged, LO Support but Still a Bit Tricky

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga's (POT) FY23 result highlighted deteriorating cago volumes and intense cost pressures but strong pricing gains.</li><li>These three themes are likely to remain through FY24; we still expect earnings growth but at a more subdued pace.</li><li>Softer cargo trends reflect weaker cyclical conditions, with container imports most impacted. </li></ul>

Port of Tauranga's (POT) FY23 result highlighted deteriorating cago volumes and intense cost pressures but strong pricing gains.These three themes are likely to remain through FY24; we still expect earnings growth but at a more subdued pace.Softer cargo trends reflect weaker cyclical conditions, with container imports most impacted. 

Port of Tauranga - FY23 — Pricing to the Rescue

<ul><li>Recent third party cargo volume data for Port of Tauranga (POT) is supportive to FY23 earnings growth but highlights some mix shifts over the past six months.</li><li>Log export growth has returned as a result of Cyclone Gabrielle forcing the harvesting of storm damaged trees in Central North Island forests.</li><li>In contrast, import container volumes have softened due to a more competitive Ports of Auckland (POAL) and a weakening consumer backdrop with likely de-stocking across the New Zealand supply chain.  </li></ul>

Recent third party cargo volume data for Port of Tauranga (POT) is supportive to FY23 earnings growth but highlights some mix shifts over the past six months.Log export growth has returned as a result of Cyclone Gabrielle forcing the harvesting of storm damaged trees in Central North Island forests.In contrast, import container volumes have softened due to a more competitive Ports of Auckland (POAL) and a weakening consumer backdrop with likely de-stocking across the New Zealand supply chain.  

Port of Tauranga - Logging Up Fewer Containers

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption. The latter has softened...

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga - Weighed Down by Containers

The soft guidance follows a tough first quarter, with total trade down -9% against a weak first quarter in FY23 when total trade was down -7%.

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport Placement - Well Flagged, LO Support but Still a Bit Tricky

Auckland City Council plans to sell around 4.5% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Port of Tauranga - FY23 — Pricing to the Rescue

Port of Tauranga's (POT) FY23 result highlighted deteriorating cago volumes and intense cost pressures but strong pricing gains.

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga - Logging Up Fewer Containers

Recent third party cargo volume data for Port of Tauranga (POT) is supportive to FY23 earnings growth but highlights some mix shifts over the past...

Forsyth Barr

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