New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) hosted an upbeat investor day and provided positive first time 1H25 earnings guidance; we upgrade to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. ​​​​​​​</li><li>AIR's first investor day for five years highlighted management's active pursuit of a wide range of credible, value accretive revenue and cost-related initiatives, aimed at lifting financial performance over the medium term.</li><li>However, it also acknowledged the challenges posed in the airline industry, and that some of the targeted benefits may be competed away. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) hosted an upbeat investor day and provided positive first time 1H25 earnings guidance; we upgrade to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. ​​​​​​​AIR's first investor day for five years highlighted management's active pursuit of a wide range of credible, value accretive revenue and cost-related initiatives, aimed at lifting financial performance over the medium term.However, it also acknowledged the challenges posed in the airline industry, and that some of the targeted benefits may be competed away. 

Air New Zealand - Management Back in Control of the Cockpit

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a challenged FY24 result, which incorporated a significant decline in profitability during the second half, driven by slowing demand and competitive pressures.</li><li>The result was impacted by ~NZ$100m of temporary net costs in the year due to aircraft availability issues (from engine maintenance requirements), albeit these were largely offset by NZ$90m of one-off COVID credit breakage income.</li><li>The outlook for 1H25 remains subdued, with AIR trading close to breakeven, as current difficult operating conditions are likely to continue. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a challenged FY24 result, which incorporated a significant decline in profitability during the second half, driven by slowing demand and competitive pressures.The result was impacted by ~NZ$100m of temporary net costs in the year due to aircraft availability issues (from engine maintenance requirements), albeit these were largely offset by NZ$90m of one-off COVID credit breakage income.The outlook for 1H25 remains subdued, with AIR trading close to breakeven, as current difficult operating conditions are likely to continue. 

Air New Zealand - FY24 — Landing Just Above Sea Level

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) will report a significant decline in earnings in its FY24 result on 29 August 2024, despite the material non-cash boost of COVID related credit breakage.</li><li>It has been a challenging year for AIR, given weakening demand, intense competition on key sectors (particularly North America), and the emergence of further engine issues (this time with Pratt &amp; Whitney).</li><li>The company downgraded market earnings expectations four times during FY24. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report a significant decline in earnings in its FY24 result on 29 August 2024, despite the material non-cash boost of COVID related credit breakage.It has been a challenging year for AIR, given weakening demand, intense competition on key sectors (particularly North America), and the emergence of further engine issues (this time with Pratt &amp; Whitney).The company downgraded market earnings expectations four times during FY24. 

Air New Zealand - FY24 Preview — Profits Grounded

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) has downgraded earnings for the fourth time in FY24, due to weaker domestic demand and the impact of elevated competition on North American services. </li><li>On an underlying basis the company now expects profit before tax to be broadly breakeven through 2H24.</li><li>The trading backdrop has deteriorated further, with no support from fuel prices. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) has downgraded earnings for the fourth time in FY24, due to weaker domestic demand and the impact of elevated competition on North American services. On an underlying basis the company now expects profit before tax to be broadly breakeven through 2H24.The trading backdrop has deteriorated further, with no support from fuel prices. 

Air New Zealand  - Second Half Loss of Altitude

<ul>
<li>Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a weaker 1H24 result, consistent with its most recent commentary and reflective of a sequential deterioration in profitability through the period.</li>
<li>The next six months look even worse. FY24 guidance, that was issued earlier this week, suggests the business will be barely profitable through 2H24, with particular pressure evident across its North America and domestic segments.</li>
<li>The profit squeeze is a function of yield pressure from increasing competition and slowing demand, and continued above trend cost inflation. </li>
</ul>


Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a weaker 1H24 result, consistent with its most recent commentary and reflective of a sequential deterioration in profitability through the period.
The next six months look even worse. FY24 guidance, that was issued earlier this week, suggests the business will be barely profitable through 2H24, with particular pressure evident across its North America and domestic segments.
The profit squeeze is a function of yield pressure from increasing competition and slowing demand, and continued above trend cost inflation. 


Air New Zealand - 1H24 — Descending into the Wrong Airport

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

Air New Zealand - Management Back in Control of the Cockpit

Air New Zealand (AIR) hosted an upbeat investor day and provided positive first time 1H25 earnings guidance; we upgrade to NEUTRAL from...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - FY24 — Landing Just Above Sea Level

Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a challenged FY24 result, which incorporated a significant decline in profitability during the second half, driven...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - FY24 Preview — Profits Grounded

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report a significant decline in earnings in its FY24 result on 29 August 2024, despite the material non-cash boost of...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - Second Half Loss of Altitude

Air New Zealand (AIR) has downgraded earnings for the fourth time in FY24, due to weaker domestic demand and the impact of elevated competition on...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - 1H24 — Descending into the Wrong Airport

Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a weaker 1H24 result, consistent with its most recent commentary and reflective of a sequential deterioration in...

Forsyth Barr

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