IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

EBeauty Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebeauty-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33505:1" rel="noopener">EBeauty Holdings (1894926D HK)</a> is the largest beauty brand e-commerce enablement service provider by GMV (gross merchandise value) facilitated or generated in China, with a market share of 13.3% in 2020, according to iResearch. eBeauty primarily executes the branding and marketing strategies that the brand partners have designed, operating their official online stores, while in some cases it provides marketing strategy advisory to brand partners to help them formulate their marketing strategies.eBeauty is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $600 million, according to press reports. The shareholders include Genesis Capital, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> and Mass Ave Global.eBeauty is a play on the rising complexity of China’s beauty e-commerce industry which has resulted in more brands out-sourcing their e-commerce operations to specialized brand e-commerce enablement service providers (such as eBeauty). The beauty e-commerce industry is fast-evolving, with mounting demands for personalised marketing strategy, multi-channel operation capabilities and technology solutions. These demanding requirements force a significant proportion of beauty brands to engage service providers who offer a suite of services in the e-commerce value chain.<div class="content-highlight">eBeauty is capitalising on these industry dynamics by delivering solid organic growth, rising margins and good cash generation. Overall, we believe that eBeauty is worth a closer look.</div>

EBeauty Holdings (1894926D HK) is the largest beauty brand e-commerce enablement service provider by GMV (gross merchandise value) facilitated or generated in China, with a market share of 13.3% in 2020, according to iResearch. eBeauty primarily executes the branding and marketing strategies that the brand partners have designed, operating their official online stores, while in some cases it provides marketing strategy advisory to brand partners to help them formulate their marketing strategies.eBeauty is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $600 million, according to press reports. The shareholders include Genesis Capital, Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Bilibili Inc (BILI US) and Mass Ave Global.eBeauty is a play on the rising complexity of China’s beauty e-commerce industry which has resulted in more brands out-sourcing their e-commerce operations to specialized brand e-commerce enablement service providers (such as eBeauty). The beauty e-commerce industry is fast-evolving, with mounting demands for personalised marketing strategy, multi-channel operation capabilities and technology solutions. These demanding requirements force a significant proportion of beauty brands to engage service providers who offer a suite of services in the e-commerce value chain.eBeauty is capitalising on these industry dynamics by delivering solid organic growth, rising margins and good cash generation. Overall, we believe that eBeauty is worth a closer look.

EBeauty Holdings IPO Initiation: Attention Pays

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Capital Hole Develops In USA:The 1Q21 regulatory financial statement for Prudential plc’s (PRU.LN) [Prudential] Jackson National (Jackson) subsidiary shows that statutory equity has declined a surprising USD 1.9 bn (39.6%) to USD 2.9 bn on a linked quarter basis at 1Q21; and *Franchise Of The Future: Nevertheless, we see Prudential's exiting of its US business is a positive (albeit likely more costly now) as it will reduce the group's exposure to US macro and transition the group into a pure Asian play. We believe that PRU’s Asian franchise is impressive with a strong growth outlook.

*Capital Hole Develops In USA:The 1Q21 regulatory financial statement for Prudential plc’s (PRU.LN) [Prudential] Jackson National (Jackson) subsidiary shows that statutory equity has declined a surprising USD 1.9 bn (39.6%) to USD 2.9 bn on a linked quarter basis at 1Q21; and *Franchise Of The Future: Nevertheless, we see Prudential's exiting of its US business is a positive (albeit likely more costly now) as it will reduce the group's exposure to US macro and transition the group into a pure Asian play. We believe that PRU’s Asian franchise is impressive with a strong growth outlook.

*Adding More Complexity In Mainland China: AIA’s hyper-aggressive push into mainland China via acquisition as company fundamentals remain poor. This push unfortunately continues. On June 29, 2020, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] announced that it has agreed to invest USD 1.86 bn (CNY 12 bn) in cash for a 24.99% stake in China Post Life (CPL), a subsidiary of China Post Group via its Hong Kong subsidiary, AIA Company Ltd; *Head Scratching Move: The CPL deal makes little sense financially, gives AIA no managerial or Board control, is limited to an equity investment without other business cooperation;  and directly competes with AIA China – despite management spin on the matter;  and *Suffocating Hong Kong Business: AIA’s core Hong Kong business has been an unmitigated disaster for during COVID-19, as it struggles with mainland Chinese visitors. Further, there is limited clarity on AIA’s legacy agents. It also has to deal with the fledgling Bank of East Asia (23.HK) business that it recently acquired.

*Adding More Complexity In Mainland China: AIA’s hyper-aggressive push into mainland China via acquisition as company fundamentals remain poor. This push unfortunately continues. On June 29, 2020, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] announced that it has agreed to invest USD 1.86 bn (CNY 12 bn) in cash for a 24.99% stake in China Post Life (CPL), a subsidiary of China Post Group via its Hong Kong subsidiary, AIA Company Ltd; *Head Scratching Move: The CPL deal makes little sense financially, gives AIA no managerial or Board control, is limited to an equity investment without other business cooperation;  and directly competes with AIA China – despite management spin on the matter;  and *Suffocating Hong Kong Business: AIA’s core Hong Kong business has been an unmitigated disaster for during COVID-19, as it struggles with mainland Chinese visitors. Further, there is limited clarity on AIA’s legacy agents. It also has to deal with the fledgling Bank of East Asia (23.HK) business that it recently acquired. 

AIA – Now Competing With Itself In China

*Adding Hubei to the Fold: Until recently AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] operated only five mainland Chinese provincial licenses in 30 cities with Beijing being the largest premium contributor for AIA China. With the border between mainland China and Hong Kong completely shutdown from 2020, mainland China became AIA’s largest market, contributing 35% to AIA’s VONB. Hong Kong falling on its face isn’t exactly how anyone envisioned mainland China becoming AIA’s largest business driver. AIA’s latest life insurance license approval from the CBIRC was received for Hubei province, reinforcing mainland China’s strategic importance; and*Suffocating Hong Kong Business: AIA’s core Hong Kong business has been an unmitigated disaster for during COVID-19, as it struggles with mainland Chinese visitors. Further, there is limited clarity on AIA’s legacy agents. It also has to deal with the fledgling Bank of East Asia (23.HK) business that it recently acquired.

*Adding Hubei to the Fold: Until recently AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] operated only five mainland Chinese provincial licenses in 30 cities with Beijing being the largest premium contributor for AIA China. With the border between mainland China and Hong Kong completely shutdown from 2020, mainland China became AIA’s largest market, contributing 35% to AIA’s VONB. Hong Kong falling on its face isn’t exactly how anyone envisioned mainland China becoming AIA’s largest business driver. AIA’s latest life insurance license approval from the CBIRC was received for Hubei province, reinforcing mainland China’s strategic importance; and*Suffocating Hong Kong Business: AIA’s core Hong Kong business has been an unmitigated disaster for during COVID-19, as it struggles with mainland Chinese visitors. Further, there is limited clarity on AIA’s legacy agents. It also has to deal with the fledgling Bank of East Asia (23.HK) business that it recently acquired.

AIA Group – Hong Kong In Rearview Mirror

*New IPO Disappoints Right Out Of Gate: Waterdrop (WDH.US) [Waterdrop] provides an online insurance marketplace and related medical crowdfunding platform in mainland China. Waterdrop  reported its first set of earnings results since its IPO, coming in at a negative CNY 370.2 bn for 1Q21, declining CNY 249.4 (206.6%) YOY largely given its higher costs from a channel (third party traffic) and product mix shift to long-term insurance. Both factors have caused operating costs to increase CNY 579.1 bn (75.7%) YOY  - far outpacing revenue growth of CNY 229.6 bn (35.1%) over the period; and  *All Is Not Lost…Yet: First year premium (FYP) did increase 42.7% YOY – led by costly third party FYP which increased 51.6%. Long-term critical illness insurance grew 132% off of a low base, but still well exceeding industry average. Anecdotally, management believes that competitive pressures appear to be abating and that increases in customer acquisition costs is now decelerating. In addition, Waterdrop continues to make progress with: Waterdrop Health; Waterdrop Medicine; and with outpatient services.

*New IPO Disappoints Right Out Of Gate: Waterdrop (WDH.US) [Waterdrop] provides an online insurance marketplace and related medical crowdfunding platform in mainland China. Waterdrop  reported its first set of earnings results since its IPO, coming in at a negative CNY 370.2 bn for 1Q21, declining CNY 249.4 (206.6%) YOY largely given its higher costs from a channel (third party traffic) and product mix shift to long-term insurance. Both factors have caused operating costs to increase CNY 579.1 bn (75.7%) YOY  - far outpacing revenue growth of CNY 229.6 bn (35.1%) over the period; and  *All Is Not Lost…Yet: First year premium (FYP) did increase 42.7% YOY – led by costly third party FYP which increased 51.6%. Long-term critical illness insurance grew 132% off of a low base, but still well exceeding industry average. Anecdotally, management believes that competitive pressures appear to be abating and that increases in customer acquisition costs is now decelerating. In addition, Waterdrop continues to make progress with: Waterdrop Health; Waterdrop Medicine; and with outpatient services.

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

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Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)

EBeauty Holdings IPO Initiation: Attention Pays

eBeauty is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $600 m. eBeauty is capitalising on favourable industry dynamics by delivering solid organic...

Arun George

Prudential Plc - Jackson Cracks

PRUDENTIAL: The 1Q21 regulatory financial statement for the Jackson National subsidiary exhibits that statutory equity declined a surprising USD...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA – Now Competing With Itself In China

AIA GROUP: AIA’s aggressive push into China continues with its 25% stake in China Post Life. The deal makes little sense financially, gives AIA no...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Group – Hong Kong In Rearview Mirror

AIA GROUP: In 2020, mainland China became AIA’s largest market. AIA’s received life insurance license approval for Hubei province, reinforcing...

Thomas J. Monaco

Waterdrop – Water Fall

WATERDROP: Waterdrop reported its first set of earnings results since its IPO, declining 206.6% YOY largely due to higher costs from a channel and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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