Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Communication Services, Information Technology and Materials stocks, while decreasing in Utilities, Consumer Staples, Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care stocks.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-m-a-center-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17616:1" rel="noopener">Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in Consumer Staples, Industrials, Financials and Materials, while shorts covered in the Consumer Discretionary sector.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, short increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-chemical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8757:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Chemical (011170 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical Co Ltd (003670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-electric-power-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16:1" rel="noopener">Korea Electric Power (015760 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fitipower-integrated-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8712:1" rel="noopener">Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11084:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Technology (2492 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/richwave-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18629:1" rel="noopener">Richwave Technology (4968 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK), Lenovo (992 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and JD Health (6618 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK), WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK) and AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK). Shorts increased in Communication Services, Information Technology and Materials stocks, while decreasing in Utilities, Consumer Staples, Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care stocks.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) and Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP) while shorts decreased on Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Itochu Corp (8001 JP) and ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP). Shorts increased in Consumer Staples, Industrials, Financials and Materials, while shorts covered in the Consumer Discretionary sector.In Korea, short increased on Doosan Infracore (042670 KS), Lotte Chemical (011170 KS), Posco Chemical Co Ltd (003670 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) while shorts decreased on SK Hynix (000660 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Korea Electric Power (015760 KS) and LG Display (034220 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were TSMC (2330 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT), Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT) and Walsin Technology (2492 TT) while shorts were covered on Taiwan Cement (1101 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Innolux Corp (3481 TT) and Richwave Technology (4968 TT).

Asia Short Interest: Kuaishou, JD Health, Xiaomi, 7&I, Monex, Rakuten, Hynix, Hyundai, Fitipower

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, aims to raise up to US$508m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.</p></div><div>
<p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-positives-largest-independent-big-data-analytics-provider" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider,</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-negatives-playing-with-its-own-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data</a>,</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-peer-comparison-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and Valuation, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-phip-and-valuation-updates-better-4q20-but-client-data-isn-t-as-encouraging" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - PHIP and Valuation Updates - Better 4Q20, but Client Data Isn’t as Encouraging</a></li>
</ul>
</div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about deal dynamics and valuation.</p></div>

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, aims to raise up to US$508m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:


Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider, 

Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data,
Bairong Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and Valuation, and
Bairong Pre-IPO - PHIP and Valuation Updates - Better 4Q20, but Client Data Isn’t as Encouraging

In this note, we will talk about deal dynamics and valuation.

Bairong IPO - Decent Valuation Probably Weighed Down by Regulation

<div><p>Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.</p></div><div><p>Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.</p></div><div><p>We have various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-positives-largest-independent-big-data-analytics-provider" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider ,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-negatives-playing-with-its-own-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-peer-comparison-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and Valuation</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the updates from its recently filed PHIP.</p></div>

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.We have various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider , Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data and Bairong Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and Valuation.In this note, we will talk about the updates from its recently filed PHIP.

Bairong Pre-IPO - PHIP and Valuation Updates - Better 4Q20, but Client Data Isn’t as Encouraging

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p> <strong><em>*Fines: </em></strong>As previously discussed, State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) fined China Literature (772.HK), Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] subsidiary CNY 500,000 for failing to gain certain acquisition or buyout approvals – thereby violating the country’s anti-monopoly laws. The fine was relatively small given the size of the acquisition despite regulators determining that those Tencent’s deals weren’t anti-competitive. Nevertheless, the fine should have served as a wake-up call to halt M&amp;A activity without the requisite regulatory sign off; and  </p><p><strong><em>*Financial Holding Company Structure: </em></strong>According to Bloomberg, Tencent likely will be required to create a financial holding company for all of its banking, insurance, and payment services businesses – and be regulated along the lines of the banking sector. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. </p>

 *Fines: As previously discussed, State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) fined China Literature (772.HK), Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] subsidiary CNY 500,000 for failing to gain certain acquisition or buyout approvals – thereby violating the country’s anti-monopoly laws. The fine was relatively small given the size of the acquisition despite regulators determining that those Tencent’s deals weren’t anti-competitive. Nevertheless, the fine should have served as a wake-up call to halt M&amp;A activity without the requisite regulatory sign off; and  *Financial Holding Company Structure: According to Bloomberg, Tencent likely will be required to create a financial holding company for all of its banking, insurance, and payment services businesses – and be regulated along the lines of the banking sector. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<div><p>Spreads generally narrowed this week with 63 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 37 widening. The big winner on the week was Health Care and Tech narrowing 2.3%. One tech name <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flat-glass-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1108:1" rel="noopener">Flat Glass (6865 HK)</a> moved 10+% while several healthcare names saw spreads narrow 3-7% each, all happening in a somewhat lackluster week for outright performance. Overall, five of seven sectors represented saw spreads narrow.</p></div><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Last Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Previous Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>3wks Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>4wks Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.74%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.65%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.56%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.36%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.67%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.43%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.53%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.19%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.12%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.10%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.54%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.86%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.45%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.15%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.42%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.26%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.61%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.33%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.84%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 3.08%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.99%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.41%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.26%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.02%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.87%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>All Market Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.59%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.05%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.22%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.76%</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div><div><div></div></div><p>10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be somewhat high at 23% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still just under 20%.</p><div><div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div></div><div><p>The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. </p></div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/200/original/Screenshot+2021-03-14+at+9.05.58+AM.png?1615683976" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194200"></figure><p></p></section></section><p>The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% plus or minus a small bit for the past eight weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). This week we narrowed just inside 40%.</p><section><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/201/original/Screenshot+2021-03-14+at+9.08.22+AM.png?1615684116" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194201"></figure></section><p></p></section></section><hr><div><div><h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2></div></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>There were 80 recommendations last week.</li>
<li>This is the second week of negative alpha for the portfolio strategy in as many weeks. The average trade loss 22bp and only 31 of 80 trades recommended was up on the week. Shorts were particularly to blame as spread compression among the names in the 10-25% discount range was much wider than in the 35-60% discount range.</li>
<li>There are <em>nearly</em> 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  </li>
</ul></div><hr><div><div><h2>Consumer Sector</h2></div></div><div><p>The first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week. Shares averaged down 1.4% this past week after gaining 0.6% the week before. The two gainers from the prior week both fell this week.</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Spreads were less tame, but momentum continues to be strong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> ended the week down 2% despite good production numbers out at the end of the week prior. BYD is down 28% in four weeks. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> continued to fall and the spread continued to widen. It is now 13% wider over 4 weeks, but is still the second-narrowest spread in the sector at 21% vs the average spread in the sector at -30%.</li>
<li>Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$611mm after selling nearly that amount the prior week and HK$2bn in the two weeks before that. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> saw continued net buying by southbound, which added about 60bp of H-share float ownership on the week through Wednesday.</li>
</ul></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended staying short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A, unwinding the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> short, and replacing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> long with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a>. </p>
<p>Those trades lost an average of 0.29% last week in spread terms after losing 16bp the week before, but gaining 3.58% the week before that. </p>
</div></div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/249/original/Screenshot+2021-03-14+at+11.50.08+AM.png?1615693825" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194249"></figure><p></p></section></section><section class="figure">For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</section>
</div>

Spreads generally narrowed this week with 63 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 37 widening. The big winner on the week was Health Care and Tech narrowing 2.3%. One tech name Flat Glass (6865 HK) moved 10+% while several healthcare names saw spreads narrow 3-7% each, all happening in a somewhat lackluster week for outright performance. Overall, five of seven sectors represented saw spreads narrow.

Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
+ 0.74%
-  0.14%
-  1.65%
-  1.20%


Energy
-  0.56%
-  0.36%
+ 0.67%
+ 1.43%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.53%
+ 1.19%
-  1.12%
+ 0.10%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 2.29%
-  0.54%
-  2.86%
+ 1.45%


Industrials
+ 0.15%
-  0.42%
-  1.20%
+ 0.26%


Materials
+ 0.61%
-  0.33%
-  0.84%
+ 3.08%


Utilities
-  0.87%
-  1.25%
-  0.14%
+ 0.99%


Sector Average
+ 0.41%
-  0.26%
-  1.02%
+ 0.87%


All Market Average
+ 0.59%
+ 0.05%
-  1.22%
+ 0.76%

10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be somewhat high at 23% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still just under 20%.

The H/A Spread Market
The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% plus or minus a small bit for the past eight weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). This week we narrowed just inside 40%.Last Week's Recommendations
There were 80 recommendations last week.
This is the second week of negative alpha for the portfolio strategy in as many weeks. The average trade loss 22bp and only 31 of 80 trades recommended was up on the week. Shorts were particularly to blame as spread compression among the names in the 10-25% discount range was much wider than in the 35-60% discount range.
There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  
Consumer SectorThe first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week. Shares averaged down 1.4% this past week after gaining 0.6% the week before. The two gainers from the prior week both fell this week.
Spreads were less tame, but momentum continues to be strong.

BYD (1211 HK) ended the week down 2% despite good production numbers out at the end of the week prior. BYD is down 28% in four weeks. 

Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) continued to fall and the spread continued to widen. It is now 13% wider over 4 weeks, but is still the second-narrowest spread in the sector at 21% vs the average spread in the sector at -30%.
Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$611mm after selling nearly that amount the prior week and HK$2bn in the two weeks before that. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) saw continued net buying by southbound, which added about 60bp of H-share float ownership on the week through Wednesday.

Last week, I recommended staying short BYD (1211 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A, unwinding the Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) short, and replacing the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) long with Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK). 
Those trades lost an average of 0.29% last week in spread terms after losing 16bp the week before, but gaining 3.58% the week before that. 

For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Energy Up, Spreads Wider, Pharmas Down Spreads Narrower

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

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Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)

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