Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>South Korea’s largest e-commerce company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> sank around 20% leading up to 4Q22 earnings. It dropped another 9% soon after the earnings report to around $14.0 per ADS.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the valuation remains expensive compared to regional peers as Coupang is trading at an 80% premium to the second most expensive e-commerce name in the region.</li>
<li>If the share price breaks the trend line here, we think shares could go on to fall below the last year’s bottom of $8.98 per ADS.</li>
</ul>


South Korea’s largest e-commerce company, Coupang (CPNG US) sank around 20% leading up to 4Q22 earnings. It dropped another 9% soon after the earnings report to around $14.0 per ADS.
Meanwhile, the valuation remains expensive compared to regional peers as Coupang is trading at an 80% premium to the second most expensive e-commerce name in the region.
If the share price breaks the trend line here, we think shares could go on to fall below the last year’s bottom of $8.98 per ADS.


Coupang: Revenue & Profits Let Coupang Down, Valuation Is Still at a Significant Premium to Peers

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

JF Wealth Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jf-wealth-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36805:1" rel="noopener">JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK)</a> is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss our earnings estimates, and thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.
JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market. 
In this note, we discuss our earnings estimates, and thoughts on valuation.


JF Wealth Holdings IPO - Can Get Similar Exposure at Cheaper Valuations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jf-wealth-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36805:1" rel="noopener">JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK)</a> is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market.</li>
<li>With total gross billings of RMB2bn in 2021, it was the second largest online investment decision-making solution provider in China with a 5.9% market share.</li>
</ul>



JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO.
JF Wealth (JFW) is an online investment decision-making solution provider in China, focusing on the online investor content services market.
With total gross billings of RMB2bn in 2021, it was the second largest online investment decision-making solution provider in China with a 5.9% market share.


JF Wealth IPO - Has Grown Well over Track Period, but Questions on Sustainability Remain

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We conducted interviews with Temu and Shein merchants. We expect Temu to be more aggressive in expansion. Most metrics of Temu are improving, and it creates increasing pressure on Shein. </li>
<li>Yet, investors should be aware about Temu’s widening losses and the possible margin drag in the domestic eCommerce business due to the subsidy campaign launched by JD.</li>
<li>We revised our forecasts on Temu’s GMV/non-GAAP net loss in 2023 from USD 2bn/(1)bn to USD 5bn/(3)bn. We cut PDD’s TP to US$100.</li>
</ul>


We conducted interviews with Temu and Shein merchants. We expect Temu to be more aggressive in expansion. Most metrics of Temu are improving, and it creates increasing pressure on Shein. 
Yet, investors should be aware about Temu’s widening losses and the possible margin drag in the domestic eCommerce business due to the subsidy campaign launched by JD.
We revised our forecasts on Temu’s GMV/non-GAAP net loss in 2023 from USD 2bn/(1)bn to USD 5bn/(3)bn. We cut PDD’s TP to US$100.


[Pinduoduo (PDD US) Target Price Change]: Cut TP for Higher Losses from Temu

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Investor interest in Pinduoduo (PDD US)  has surged, hitting record-high levels of fund ownership this month.</li>
<li>Over the period from the recent lows in March 2022 to today, Pinduoduo’s +20% increase in the percentage of funds invested was the highest across all stocks in China.</li>
<li>New positions from JSS All China (+7.49%) and Tamaq China Champions (+4.99%) were complemented by increased weights from China Fund (+5.35%) and GAM China Evolution (+5.26%).</li>
</ul>


Investor interest in Pinduoduo (PDD US)  has surged, hitting record-high levels of fund ownership this month.
Over the period from the recent lows in March 2022 to today, Pinduoduo’s +20% increase in the percentage of funds invested was the highest across all stocks in China.
New positions from JSS All China (+7.49%) and Tamaq China Champions (+4.99%) were complemented by increased weights from China Fund (+5.35%) and GAM China Evolution (+5.26%).


China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Coupang: Revenue & Profits Let Coupang Down, Valuation Is Still at a Significant Premium to Peers

Being one of the very first e-commerce companies in the region to cut costs to ensure long-term survival, Coupang has managed to break even in the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JF Wealth Holdings IPO - Can Get Similar Exposure at Cheaper Valuations

JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss our earnings estimates, and thoughts on...

Clarence Chu

JF Wealth IPO - Has Grown Well over Track Period, but Questions on Sustainability Remain

JF Wealth Holdings (9636 HK) is looking to raise US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. JFW focuses on the online investor content services market in China.

Clarence Chu

[Pinduoduo (PDD US) Target Price Change]: Cut TP for Higher Losses from Temu

We recently conducted interviews with Temu and Shein merchants and we expect Temu to be more aggressive in expansion. Most metrics of Temu are...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo: Entering the Big League

Pinduoduo has emerged as one of the top stock holdings in China, following a strong recovery from the ownership lows of last year.

Steven Holden

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