Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.6% as of May 12th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week on week, led by real estate, financials, utilities and offset by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.6% as of May 12th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week on week, led by real estate, financials, utilities and offset by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 12th): CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 12th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Cnooc, Bank Of China, Petrochina, China Shenhua Energy, CCB, HKEX, SMIC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 12th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Cnooc, Bank Of China, Petrochina, China Shenhua Energy, CCB, HKEX, SMIC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 12th): CNOOC, BOC, Petrochina, China Shenhua Energy, CCB, HKEX, SMIC

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The overvaluation or undervaluation of China core assets cannot be explained solely by valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF etc., but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by them.</li>
<li>The so-called policy, strategic, and systemic importance are playing increasingly important role in stock picking process. It's not wise to just analyze it from bottom-up perspective without considering top-down perspective.</li>
<li>There’s no eternal,universal,absolute truth in this world. We’re in the midst of a "unprecedented upheaval in a century".It's time to change mindset so investors don't miss the next valuation takeoff.</li>
</ul>


The overvaluation or undervaluation of China core assets cannot be explained solely by valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF etc., but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by them.
The so-called policy, strategic, and systemic importance are playing increasingly important role in stock picking process. It's not wise to just analyze it from bottom-up perspective without considering top-down perspective.
There’s no eternal,universal,absolute truth in this world. We’re in the midst of a "unprecedented upheaval in a century".It's time to change mindset so investors don't miss the next valuation takeoff.


Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. </li>
<li>AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. 
Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. 
AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

A-H Premium Weekly (May 12th): CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 12th): CNOOC, BOC, Petrochina, China Shenhua Energy, CCB, HKEX, SMIC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Cnooc, Bank Of China, Petrochina, China Shenhua Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning

Many investors do not have a deep understanding of the "valuation system with Chinese characteristics". It is necessary to provide some...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to...

Arun George

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