HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The overvaluation or undervaluation of China core assets cannot be explained solely by valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF etc., but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by them.</li>
<li>The so-called policy, strategic, and systemic importance are playing increasingly important role in stock picking process. It's not wise to just analyze it from bottom-up perspective without considering top-down perspective.</li>
<li>There’s no eternal,universal,absolute truth in this world. We’re in the midst of a "unprecedented upheaval in a century".It's time to change mindset so investors don't miss the next valuation takeoff.</li>
</ul>


The overvaluation or undervaluation of China core assets cannot be explained solely by valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF etc., but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by them.
The so-called policy, strategic, and systemic importance are playing increasingly important role in stock picking process. It's not wise to just analyze it from bottom-up perspective without considering top-down perspective.
There’s no eternal,universal,absolute truth in this world. We’re in the midst of a "unprecedented upheaval in a century".It's time to change mindset so investors don't miss the next valuation takeoff.


Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. </li>
<li>AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. 
Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. 
AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.2% as of May 5th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.3ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, health care and offset by real estate, energy, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern Airlines, CSC Financials.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.2% as of May 5th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.3ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, health care and offset by real estate, energy, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern Airlines, CSC Financials.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 5th): CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern Airlines

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Many people have begun to pay attention to whether there would be a second wave of COVID-19 in China. We think it is necessary to share our views.</li>
<li>The overvaluation or undervaluation of China’s core assets cannot be explained solely by classic valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF, but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by the companies.</li>
<li>Lifetech’s future growth space depend more on the performance of pacemakers and IBS, but they are facing different challenges. Therefore, we recommend short-term trade rather than long term hold.</li>
</ul>


Many people have begun to pay attention to whether there would be a second wave of COVID-19 in China. We think it is necessary to share our views.
The overvaluation or undervaluation of China’s core assets cannot be explained solely by classic valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF, but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by the companies.
Lifetech’s future growth space depend more on the performance of pacemakers and IBS, but they are facing different challenges. Therefore, we recommend short-term trade rather than long term hold.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.5)- 2nd Wave of COVID, Valuation Logic of China's Core Assets, Lifetech

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Pertamina Hulu Energi / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-hulu-energi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39781:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Hulu Energi</a>  is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>PHE is a subsidiary of  Pertamina (Persero), which operates an integrated end-to-end energy business, from upstream to downstream businesses. PHE manages the upstream oil and gas assets of its parent.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Pertamina Hulu Energi  is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO.
PHE is a subsidiary of  Pertamina (Persero), which operates an integrated end-to-end energy business, from upstream to downstream businesses. PHE manages the upstream oil and gas assets of its parent.
In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Pertamina Hulu Energi Early Look - The Negatives - Past Growth Record Seems Lackluster

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning

Many investors do not have a deep understanding of the "valuation system with Chinese characteristics". It is necessary to provide some...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to...

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (May 5th): CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern Airlines

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (May.5)- 2nd Wave of COVID, Valuation Logic of China's Core Assets, Lifetech

It's time to talk about the 2nd wave of COVID in China.Investors need to understand deep meaning/valuation logic of China's core assets so as not...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pertamina Hulu Energi Early Look - The Negatives - Past Growth Record Seems Lackluster

Pertamina Hulu Energi is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. In this note we talk about the not so positive aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

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