China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PDD reported CY2Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net profit 28% and 58% vs. our est., and 21% and 44% vs. cons., respectively. </li>
<li>We raised our 2H23 forecasts for PDD because: 1) GMV growth hasn’t been significantly impacted by the current competitive landscape; 2) take rate could maintain a high level due to </li>
<li>Continuous optimization of ad products; and 3) new businesses such as Temu and Kuaituantuan (快团团) have fair growth. We maintain BUY and raise our TP to US$ 107.</li>
</ul>


PDD reported CY2Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net profit 28% and 58% vs. our est., and 21% and 44% vs. cons., respectively. 
We raised our 2H23 forecasts for PDD because: 1) GMV growth hasn’t been significantly impacted by the current competitive landscape; 2) take rate could maintain a high level due to 
Continuous optimization of ad products; and 3) new businesses such as Temu and Kuaituantuan (快团团) have fair growth. We maintain BUY and raise our TP to US$ 107.


[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$107)]: Raise TP for GMV, Take Rate, Temu and Kuaituantuan

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>PDD reported blowout 2Q results with bottom line beating consensus by 40% thanks to stronger domestic marketplaces business, narrower losses incurred by TEMU and higher other income.</li>
<li>2Q results cleared much of our concern around PDD’s bottom line growth and we now see 2Q as the low point of earnings growth in FY23.</li>
<li>We believe the company will report $9 billion net profit for FY23 and expect rounds of earnings revision by the street will further lift share price. US $120 price target.</li>
</ul>


PDD reported blowout 2Q results with bottom line beating consensus by 40% thanks to stronger domestic marketplaces business, narrower losses incurred by TEMU and higher other income.
2Q results cleared much of our concern around PDD’s bottom line growth and we now see 2Q as the low point of earnings growth in FY23.
We believe the company will report $9 billion net profit for FY23 and expect rounds of earnings revision by the street will further lift share price. US $120 price target.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>PDD Holdings (PDD) announced (29 Aug) 2Q23 results: revenue was up 66.3% YoY to RMB52.3bn, 22/21% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, which we attributable to robust GMV growth and continuous increase in monetization.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income increased by 42% YoY to RMB15.3bn, 41% ahead of consensus, due to operating leverage, sales and marketing spending geared at generating higher GMV from key consumer wallet-share gain categories.</li><li>The strong beat in results echoed our view that in the ecommerce sector PDD has relatively more proactive room to drive GMV growth through targeting bigger consumer wallet share, and further increasing monetization rate given its relatively better ROI compared with peers. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

PDD Holdings (PDD) announced (29 Aug) 2Q23 results: revenue was up 66.3% YoY to RMB52.3bn, 22/21% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, which we attributable to robust GMV growth and continuous increase in monetization.Non-GAAP net income increased by 42% YoY to RMB15.3bn, 41% ahead of consensus, due to operating leverage, sales and marketing spending geared at generating higher GMV from key consumer wallet-share gain categories.The strong beat in results echoed our view that in the ecommerce sector PDD has relatively more proactive room to drive GMV growth through targeting bigger consumer wallet share, and further increasing monetization rate given its relatively better ROI compared with peers. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PDD Holdings (PDD US) – Consumer Wallet Share Gain Strategy Boosted Revenue and Earnings Growth

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PDD’s revenue increased by 66% YoY to RMB52 bn, significantly higher than the market consensus RMB43 bn.</li>
<li>The operating margin declined to 24% in 2Q23 from 28% in 2Q22 due to aggressive expansion outside China.</li>
<li>We believe the stock still has an upside of 47% for year end 2023. Buy.</li>
</ul>


PDD’s revenue increased by 66% YoY to RMB52 bn, significantly higher than the market consensus RMB43 bn.
The operating margin declined to 24% in 2Q23 from 28% in 2Q22 due to aggressive expansion outside China.
We believe the stock still has an upside of 47% for year end 2023. Buy.


Pinduoduo (PDD): 2Q23, Revenue Significantly Higher Than Consensus, Buy

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)