China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described</li>
<li>We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.</li>
<li>However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.</li>
</ul>


Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described
We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.
However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.


Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>For this year’s 618 shopping festival, per Syntun data, overall industry GMV growth recovered to 14.8% YoY (2022 618: 8.2%), driven by the recovery in growth of horizontal e-commerce platforms (from 0.7% YoY in 2022 to 5.4% in 2023), which we attribute to the efforts spent to drive for consumer engagement improvement, and by the increase in penetration of live streaming e-commerce.</li><li>GMV generated from live streaming e-commerce channel during 618 shopping festival was up 27.6% YoY in this year’s sales promotion.</li><li>Although the growth was still faster than overall industry average, it slowed from 124% YoY compared to 2022, which likely indicates a marginal easing of competition that it brought to traditional horizontal e-commerce platforms. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

For this year’s 618 shopping festival, per Syntun data, overall industry GMV growth recovered to 14.8% YoY (2022 618: 8.2%), driven by the recovery in growth of horizontal e-commerce platforms (from 0.7% YoY in 2022 to 5.4% in 2023), which we attribute to the efforts spent to drive for consumer engagement improvement, and by the increase in penetration of live streaming e-commerce.GMV generated from live streaming e-commerce channel during 618 shopping festival was up 27.6% YoY in this year’s sales promotion.Although the growth was still faster than overall industry average, it slowed from 124% YoY compared to 2022, which likely indicates a marginal easing of competition that it brought to traditional horizontal e-commerce platforms. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet – Trends observed from this year’s 618 shopping festival

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect June quarter results to beat consensus and demonstrate a balanced growth across topline and bottom-line.</li>
<li>During a time when headlines drive BABA share price, it is more important to stay grounded in numbers, see what is in price and make trades accordingly.</li>
<li>We maintain US$500 billion target market cap on 20x RMB180 billion non-GAAP net profit by FY25.</li>
</ul>


We expect June quarter results to beat consensus and demonstrate a balanced growth across topline and bottom-line.
During a time when headlines drive BABA share price, it is more important to stay grounded in numbers, see what is in price and make trades accordingly.
We maintain US$500 billion target market cap on 20x RMB180 billion non-GAAP net profit by FY25.


Alibaba (BABA US): Watch Headlines and Stay Grounded in Numbers

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a> is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express (J&amp;T) is a global logistics service provider. </li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
J&amp;T Global Express (J&amp;T) is a global logistics service provider. 
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.


Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Pinduoduo /: China’s faltering recovery is good for business — at least if you’re Pinduoduo</li><li>Palestine-Israel /: Xi proposes three-point resolution for Palestinian-Israeli conflict</li><li>Jobless /: Chart of the Day: China’s youth unemployment breaks record as graduate influx looms</li></ul>

Pinduoduo /: China’s faltering recovery is good for business — at least if you’re PinduoduoPalestine-Israel /: Xi proposes three-point resolution for Palestinian-Israeli conflictJobless /: Chart of the Day: China’s youth unemployment breaks record as graduate influx looms

CX Daily: China’s Faltering Recovery Is Good for Business — at Least if You’re Pinduoduo

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Internet – Trends observed from this year’s 618 shopping festival

GMV generated from live streaming e-commerce channel during 618 shopping festival was up 27.6% YoY in this year’s sales promotion.

CMB International

Alibaba (BABA US): Watch Headlines and Stay Grounded in Numbers

We expect Alibaba to deliver a balanced growth for June quarter results which will beat consensus. We advise investors to stay grounded in numbers...

Eric Chen

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO Tearsheet

J&T Global Express (1936374D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. J&T Global Express (J&T) is a global logistics...

Clarence Chu

CX Daily: China’s Faltering Recovery Is Good for Business — at Least if You’re Pinduoduo

Pinduoduo /: China’s faltering recovery is good for business — at least if you’re Pinduoduo Palestine-Israel /: Xi proposes three-point resolution...

Caixin Global

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