Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> shares dropped 6.1% yesterday following the 4Q21 results as the company's revenue fell short of the consensus estimate by 8.9%.</li>
<li>Pinduoduo’s OP improved 223% QoQ to RMB 6.9bn (consensus RMB 3.2bn) through pushing back sales and marketing investments. However, it affected the company’s user growth as MAUs declined by 8.0m.</li>
<li>Consensus is yet to factor in the impact on user growth through reduced marketing spend, which makes further downside to Pinduoduo shares possible.</li>
</ul>



Pinduoduo (PDD US) shares dropped 6.1% yesterday following the 4Q21 results as the company's revenue fell short of the consensus estimate by 8.9%.
Pinduoduo’s OP improved 223% QoQ to RMB 6.9bn (consensus RMB 3.2bn) through pushing back sales and marketing investments. However, it affected the company’s user growth as MAUs declined by 8.0m.
Consensus is yet to factor in the impact on user growth through reduced marketing spend, which makes further downside to Pinduoduo shares possible.


Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PDD’s total revenue growth was low 4Q21, as the company gave up on direct sales.</li>
<li>However, we believe the revenue growth will bounce back in 2023.</li>
<li>PDD cut sales and marketing expense, so we believe operating margin will improve in following two years.</li>
</ul>


PDD’s total revenue growth was low 4Q21, as the company gave up on direct sales.
However, we believe the revenue growth will bounce back in 2023.
PDD cut sales and marketing expense, so we believe operating margin will improve in following two years.


Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q21, Undervalued Growth Rate and Record Profit Since IPO, Buy

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Superapp <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (1379371D IJ)</a> has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Indonesian Stock Exchange to raise US$1.1-1.25bn at a valuation of about US$24-26bn.</li>
<li>The company plans to use the proceeds to develop its business including for customer acquisition, product development and sales and marketing.</li>
<li>Our SOTP valuation implies that GoTo’s shares are overvalued at the indicative IPO price range.</li>
</ul>


Superapp GoTo (1379371D IJ) has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Indonesian Stock Exchange to raise US$1.1-1.25bn at a valuation of about US$24-26bn.
The company plans to use the proceeds to develop its business including for customer acquisition, product development and sales and marketing.
Our SOTP valuation implies that GoTo’s shares are overvalued at the indicative IPO price range.


Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The major trend, witnessed over the past two years, has been the continued loss of relative market share by Alibaba, and the continued market share gains by JD.com.</li>
<li>Alibaba has been able to steadily grow its active user base, on its Chinese retail platforms, by above 10%y/y since at least 2019, off an extremely high base.</li>
<li>Short-Term growth expectations seem relatively conservative, with limited risk for a further negative surprise.</li>
</ul>


The major trend, witnessed over the past two years, has been the continued loss of relative market share by Alibaba, and the continued market share gains by JD.com.
Alibaba has been able to steadily grow its active user base, on its Chinese retail platforms, by above 10%y/y since at least 2019, off an extremely high base.
Short-Term growth expectations seem relatively conservative, with limited risk for a further negative surprise.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (1379371D IJ)</a> is the leading digital ecosystem in Southeast Asia. It seeking to raise up to $1.3 billion. Bookbuilding ends on 21 March.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/goto-gojek-tokopedia-ipo-initiation-island-shopping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67047" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO Initiation: Island Shopping</a>, we noted that the fundamentals are mixed as the high growth is accompanied by ongoing losses and cash burn. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is aggressive and unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



GoTo (1379371D IJ) is the leading digital ecosystem in Southeast Asia. It seeking to raise up to $1.3 billion. Bookbuilding ends on 21 March.
In GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO Initiation: Island Shopping, we noted that the fundamentals are mixed as the high growth is accompanied by ongoing losses and cash burn. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is aggressive and unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. 


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Valuation Insights

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo 4Q21: A Big Compromise

Pinduoduo’s OP improved 223% QoQ to RMB 6.9bn (consensus RMB 3.2bn) through pushing back sales and marketing investments. However, it affected the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q21, Undervalued Growth Rate and Record Profit Since IPO, Buy

The total revenue growth was low 4Q21, as the company gave up on direct sales. However, we believe the revenue growth will bounce back in 2023. PDD...

Ming Lu

GoTo IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Even without conservative assumptions, our SOTP valuation implies that GoTo’s shares are overvalued at the indicative IPO price range.

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Alibaba Group: Looking Through the Noise

In this insight, we aim to cut through the short-term “noise”, analyse the operational fundamentals for Alibaba Group, and take an updated look at...

Wium Malan, CFA

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is aggressive and unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. Books will close on 21 March....

Arun George

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