Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Data from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a> is just out with poor 1H24 results YoY</li>
<li>Notable in its release are its Hong Kong overdue exposure by over three months</li>
<li>Hong Kong region income is the worst affected by credit costs, this does not seem to be over</li>
</ul>


Data from Bank of East Asia (23 HK) is just out with poor 1H24 results YoY
Notable in its release are its Hong Kong overdue exposure by over three months
Hong Kong region income is the worst affected by credit costs, this does not seem to be over


BEA - Far Worse Deterioration in Hong Kong than Other Regions & Sharply Lower HFD Centa City Index

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a8-new-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3444:1" rel="noopener">A8 New Media (800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK). 

Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP). 



Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) - China TCM, L'Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansarada-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30718:1" rel="noopener">Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infocom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8412:1" rel="noopener">Infocom Corp (4348 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), Asia Cement China (743 HK). 

Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP).



Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jul) - Henlius, China TCM, GA Pack, CPMC, Asia Cement, Great Eastern

Malaysia Airports Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a8-new-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3444:1" rel="noopener">A8 New Media (800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagatanien-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8059:1" rel="noopener">Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Asia Cement China (743 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK). 
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP).



Merger Arb Mondays (24 Jun) - Malaysia Airports, GA Pack, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, Capitol, MMA

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Murakami Group now owns 10.13% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>. Interestingly, NOMURA Aya sold 6.79% off-market to Minami Aoyama Fudosan. Has the Murakami Group made a "mistake" in its planning?</li>
<li>A big win for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a> as the U.S. Federal Appeals Court issued its decision on overturning <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insulet-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5252:1" rel="noopener">Insulet Corp (PODD US)</a>'s provisional injunction</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> finally announces the share alternative.  And  Pleasant Lake (3.25% of shares out) will accept the share offer (either cash or scrip). This is a done deal</li>
</ul>


Murakami Group now owns 10.13% of Exedy Corp (7278 JP). Interestingly, NOMURA Aya sold 6.79% off-market to Minami Aoyama Fudosan. Has the Murakami Group made a "mistake" in its planning?
A big win for EOFlow (294090 KS) as the U.S. Federal Appeals Court issued its decision on overturning Insulet Corp (PODD US)'s provisional injunction

L'Occitane (973 HK) finally announces the share alternative.  And  Pleasant Lake (3.25% of shares out) will accept the share offer (either cash or scrip). This is a done deal


Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L'Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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OCBC (OCBC SP)

BEA - Far Worse Deterioration in Hong Kong than Other Regions & Sharply Lower HFD Centa City Index

BEA just released 1H24 net profit - not good. Granular data shows most deterioration in HK region. HFD in real estate, lending suggests this is not...

Daniel Tabbush

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jul) - China TCM, L'Occitane, A8 Media, GA Pack, Asia Cement, Hollysys, MMA

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (131.3%), China TCM (26.0%), A8 New Media (12.5%), GA Pack (11.8%), Asia Cement China (11.0%),...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jul) - Henlius, China TCM, GA Pack, CPMC, Asia Cement, Great Eastern

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (121.3%), China TCM (26.7%), Hollysys (22.5%), Ansarada (13.1%), Asia Cement China (12.6%), A8...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (24 Jun) - Malaysia Airports, GA Pack, Infocom, Mimasu, Tatsuta, Capitol, MMA

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (130.3%), Hollysys (22.8%), Asia Cement China (14.2%), A8 New Media (12.5%), Malaysia Airports...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L'Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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