Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Nov was in line with market expectation, with property investment decline narrowed to -10.6% YoY in Nov from -11.3% in Oct given new start area surprisingly booked positive increase and NBS adjusted -8% on calculation base in Nov vs. -6% in Oct. </li><li>Property sales was flat with volume/value inched up 2/1% MoM and barely no year-end seasonality like that in the past five years (avg. of 11% MoM in Nov) given low buying sentiment.</li><li>Beijing (BJ) &amp; Shanghai (SH) eased purchasing policies on 14 Dec and the stock market reacted positively with property names on HK market went up an average of 5% on the following day.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Nov was in line with market expectation, with property investment decline narrowed to -10.6% YoY in Nov from -11.3% in Oct given new start area surprisingly booked positive increase and NBS adjusted -8% on calculation base in Nov vs. -6% in Oct. Property sales was flat with volume/value inched up 2/1% MoM and barely no year-end seasonality like that in the past five years (avg. of 11% MoM in Nov) given low buying sentiment.Beijing (BJ) &amp; Shanghai (SH) eased purchasing policies on 14 Dec and the stock market reacted positively with property names on HK market went up an average of 5% on the following day.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Expect New Policy in BJ/SH to Boost Secondary Market in Dec

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sunshine Insurance Group  Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunshine-insurance-group-co-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36464:1" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance Group (6963 HK)</a> (SIG), a life, health and P&amp;C insurance company, raised around US$850m in its HK IPO in Dec 2022. Its IPO linked lockup will expire tomorrow.</li>
<li>SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&amp;H) and property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurance in China</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Sunshine Insurance Group (6963 HK) (SIG), a life, health and P&amp;C insurance company, raised around US$850m in its HK IPO in Dec 2022. Its IPO linked lockup will expire tomorrow.
SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&amp;H) and property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurance in China
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Sunshine Insurance Group IPO Lock-Up - US$5.3bn Lockup Release Tomorrow, with No Liquidity

<ul><li>NBS data in Oct was in line with market expectation, with property investment decline remaining at -11.3% YoY in Oct (vs. -11.3% in Sep) despite a lower base.</li><li>Property sales also weakened with volume/value declining 28/26% MoM and showing larger divergence between high- and low-tier cities.</li><li>We think Nov-Dec 2023 may continue to be weak as the buying sentiment remains low and is hard to be lifted with the marginally weakening effect from easing policies. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS data in Oct was in line with market expectation, with property investment decline remaining at -11.3% YoY in Oct (vs. -11.3% in Sep) despite a lower base.Property sales also weakened with volume/value declining 28/26% MoM and showing larger divergence between high- and low-tier cities.We think Nov-Dec 2023 may continue to be weak as the buying sentiment remains low and is hard to be lifted with the marginally weakening effect from easing policies. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – NBS Oct Data in Line

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

WuXi XDC Cayman  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$20.60 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$470 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wuxi-xdc-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116331" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wuxi-xdc-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116507" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wuxi-xdc-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116962" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector has modestly weakened. However, the IPO price is attractive, with our DCF valuation of HK$22.89 per share, 11.1% above the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) priced its IPO at HK$20.60 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$470 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in WuXi XDC IPO: The Bull Case, WuXi XDC IPO: The Bear Case and WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment on the sector has modestly weakened. However, the IPO price is attractive, with our DCF valuation of HK$22.89 per share, 11.1% above the IPO price.


China

Onewo Inc. operates as a property management service provider. The Company operates and manages residential communities, workspaces, public premises, and others. Onewo provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

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Onewo (2602 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

There could be nearly 58 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

China Property Sector – Expect New Policy in BJ/SH to Boost Secondary Market in Dec

Data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Nov was in line with market expectation, with property investment decline narrowed to -10.6% YoY...

CMB International

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO Lock-Up - US$5.3bn Lockup Release Tomorrow, with No Liquidity

Sunshine Insurance Group (6963 HK) (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, raised around US$850m in its HK IPO in Dec 2022. Its IPO linked...

Sumeet Singh

China Property Sector – NBS Oct Data in Line

NBS data in Oct was in line with market expectation, with property investment decline remaining at -11.3% YoY in Oct (vs. -11.3% in Sep) despite a...

CMB International

WuXi XDC IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector has modestly weakened. However, the IPO price is attractive, with our DCF valuation of HK$22.89 per share, 11.1%...

Arun George

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