Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone and welcome back to yet another assessment of our macro book- and as per usual accompanied by our current macro outlook!We knock on the door to a week with yet another US CPI release- this time revised:The revision we received today proved not to be the unpleasant surprise everyone feared given the 2023 revision and Waller &amp; Powell both having flagged it and as a result, our expectations of a soft print remain unchanged- for elaboration see here.</li><li>While it might feel like we’re repeating ourselves, our belief in the USD and US risk assets being the best options out there hasn’t budged.</li><li>That said, we’ve been tossing around a few ideas and topics internally over the last week: Markets haven’t continued the dramatic price movements since last Friday’s (some might label it as “fake”, see here) NFP blowout, but it’s noteworthy that short-term expectations are significantly outstripping those further along the curve.</li></ul>

Hello everyone and welcome back to yet another assessment of our macro book- and as per usual accompanied by our current macro outlook!We knock on the door to a week with yet another US CPI release- this time revised:The revision we received today proved not to be the unpleasant surprise everyone feared given the 2023 revision and Waller &amp; Powell both having flagged it and as a result, our expectations of a soft print remain unchanged- for elaboration see here.While it might feel like we’re repeating ourselves, our belief in the USD and US risk assets being the best options out there hasn’t budged.That said, we’ve been tossing around a few ideas and topics internally over the last week: Markets haven’t continued the dramatic price movements since last Friday’s (some might label it as “fake”, see here) NFP blowout, but it’s noteworthy that short-term expectations are significantly outstripping those further along the curve.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.</li>
<li>Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.</li>
<li>This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.</li>
</ul>


Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.
Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.
This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.


Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE &amp; Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting</li>
<li>Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb &amp; March</li>
<li>TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home</li>
</ul>


Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE &amp; Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting
Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb &amp; March
TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>So I took this weekend to update my models on Meta and Amazon. I just wanted to leave some brisk thoughts on these updated models.</li><li>I will start with Meta today and will share my thoughts on Amazon tomorrow.</li><li>You can find the updated model on Meta here which I encourage you to download to play around with your own narrative as you see fit.</li></ul>

So I took this weekend to update my models on Meta and Amazon. I just wanted to leave some brisk thoughts on these updated models.I will start with Meta today and will share my thoughts on Amazon tomorrow.You can find the updated model on Meta here which I encourage you to download to play around with your own narrative as you see fit.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Samsung's earnings was recently reported, with memory revenues up nearly 50% in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>This gain has been driven by very strong growth in AI and a normalization of inventory levels</li>
<li>The memory business is approaching positive margins once again, and SK hynix is already profitable</li>
</ul>


Samsung's earnings was recently reported, with memory revenues up nearly 50% in the fourth quarter
This gain has been driven by very strong growth in AI and a normalization of inventory levels
The memory business is approaching positive margins once again, and SK hynix is already profitable


United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?

Hello everyone and welcome back to yet another assessment of our macro book- and as per usual accompanied by our current macro outlook!We knock on...

Steno Research

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Meta Platforms: Model Update

So I took this weekend to update my models on Meta and Amazon. I just wanted to leave some brisk thoughts on these updated models.

MBI Deep Dives

Samsung Memory Revenues Up Impressively

Samsung's memory business sees significant growth in Q4, driven by AI and inventory stabilization, nearing positive margins while SK hynix turns...

Jim Handy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?

Hello everyone and welcome back to yet another assessment of our macro book- and as per usual accompanied by our current macro outlook!We knock on...

Steno Research

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

​Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Meta Platforms: Model Update

So I took this weekend to update my models on Meta and Amazon. I just wanted to leave some brisk thoughts on these updated models.

MBI Deep Dives

Samsung Memory Revenues Up Impressively

​Samsung's memory business sees significant growth in Q4, driven by AI and inventory stabilization, nearing positive margins while SK hynix turns...

Jim Handy

Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Samsung's memory business sees significant growth in Q4, driven by AI and inventory stabilization, nearing positive margins while SK hynix turns...