Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. </li>
<li>At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. </li>
<li>Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  


Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

<ul>
<li>Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.</li>
<li>Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).</li>
<li>Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.</li>
</ul>


Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.


Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>  said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market. </li>
<li>The Trump Administration's move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.</li>
<li>Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)  said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market. 
The Trump Administration's move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.
Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.


Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>The semiconductor sector has been rattled by a wave of tariff escalations, with Nvidia at the center of attention.</li><li>President Donald Trump’s recent imposition of steep new tariffs—34% on imports from China and 32% on Taiwan—sent shockwaves across the global technology industry.</li><li>While semiconductors were initially exempted from the levies, the ambiguity in policy messaging and the potential for future inclusion have raised investor concerns.</li></ul>

The semiconductor sector has been rattled by a wave of tariff escalations, with Nvidia at the center of attention.President Donald Trump’s recent imposition of steep new tariffs—34% on imports from China and 32% on Taiwan—sent shockwaves across the global technology industry.While semiconductors were initially exempted from the levies, the ambiguity in policy messaging and the potential for future inclusion have raised investor concerns.

Nvidia Is Getting Hit by Tariffs—But Here’s How It Plans to Fight Back!

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>25,000 people attended Nvidia sessions, making it one of the busiest single company shows</li><li>Initial disappointment at keynote, followed by renewed enthusiasm after investor Q&amp;A and show attendance</li><li>Disillusionment with lack of new AI advancements and repeated demos at Nvidia booth, feeling like a cult atmosphere</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

25,000 people attended Nvidia sessions, making it one of the busiest single company showsInitial disappointment at keynote, followed by renewed enthusiasm after investor Q&amp;A and show attendanceDisillusionment with lack of new AI advancements and repeated demos at Nvidia booth, feeling like a cult atmosphereThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

NVIDIA Corp faces a $5.5 billion hit due to US restrictions on its H20 AI chips for China, currently selling off and looking for a bottom in the...

Nico Rosti

Nvidia Is Getting Hit by Tariffs—But Here’s How It Plans to Fight Back!

The semiconductor sector has been rattled by a wave of tariff escalations, with Nvidia at the center of attention. President Donald Trump’s recent...

Baptista Research

Episode 110: NVIDIA's Identity Crisis

The Nvidia conference was packed with attendees but left many feeling disillusioned and questioning the hype surrounding the company's AI...

The Circuit

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

​Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

​News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

​NVIDIA Corp faces a $5.5 billion hit due to US restrictions on its H20 AI chips for China, currently selling off and looking for a bottom in the...

Nico Rosti

Nvidia Is Getting Hit by Tariffs—But Here’s How It Plans to Fight Back!

The semiconductor sector has been rattled by a wave of tariff escalations, with Nvidia at the center of attention. President Donald Trump’s recent...

Baptista Research

Episode 110: NVIDIA's Identity Crisis

The Nvidia conference was packed with attendees but left many feeling disillusioned and questioning the hype surrounding the company's AI...

The Circuit

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

NVIDIA Corp faces a $5.5 billion hit due to US restrictions on its H20 AI chips for China, currently selling off and looking for a bottom in the...