Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

The Wall Street Journal last week <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/amd-is-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-xilinx-11602205553" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices</a> is in advanced talks to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xilinx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11600:1" rel="noopener">Xilinx</a> for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why.

The Wall Street Journal last week reported that Advanced Micro Devices is in advanced talks to buy Xilinx for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why. 

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

Top 10 Mega Caps | Artificial Intelligence, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

Top 10 Mega Caps | Artificial Intelligence

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

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<li>
Diverse AI Portfolio: Microsoft’s diversified AI investments, including partnerships with G42 and Mistral AI, reduce reliance on OpenAI and ensure continued innovation across multiple AI ventures.</li>
<li>
Azure’s Competitive Edge: The partnership with OpenAI strengthens Azure’s position by offering exclusive AI-driven cloud services, boosting demand from enterprises seeking advanced automation and productivity tools.</li>
<li>
Industry Leadership: As AI investment intensifies across the tech sector, Microsoft’s significant spending outpaces peers, positioning the company as a frontrunner while highlighting competitive pressures in the growing AI landscape.</li>
</ul>



Diverse AI Portfolio: Microsoft’s diversified AI investments, including partnerships with G42 and Mistral AI, reduce reliance on OpenAI and ensure continued innovation across multiple AI ventures.

Azure’s Competitive Edge: The partnership with OpenAI strengthens Azure’s position by offering exclusive AI-driven cloud services, boosting demand from enterprises seeking advanced automation and productivity tools.

Industry Leadership: As AI investment intensifies across the tech sector, Microsoft’s significant spending outpaces peers, positioning the company as a frontrunner while highlighting competitive pressures in the growing AI landscape.


Microsoft's Billion Dollar Bets on OpenAI & G42; Azure to Benefit from Industry Growth

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's street-beating results indicate strong growth to continue; Generative AI demand will next expand from startups, consumer internet, and cloud service providers increasingly to enterprise AI-linked demand.</li>
<li>Nvidia is not expensive despite recent market concerns. We believe Nvidia can meet or even beat its current calendar year 2024 earnings expectations and forward PE is cheap.</li>
<li>Short a basket of Taiwan AI concept stocks vs. a core Nvidia long position rather than take profits in Nvidia. We have swapped one Taiwan stock in our short basket.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's street-beating results indicate strong growth to continue; Generative AI demand will next expand from startups, consumer internet, and cloud service providers increasingly to enterprise AI-linked demand.
Nvidia is not expensive despite recent market concerns. We believe Nvidia can meet or even beat its current calendar year 2024 earnings expectations and forward PE is cheap.
Short a basket of Taiwan AI concept stocks vs. a core Nvidia long position rather than take profits in Nvidia. We have swapped one Taiwan stock in our short basket.


Nvidia Still Cheap: Enterprise AI Next Driver to Kick-In; Adjusting Our Taiwan AI Plays Short Hedge

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

<ul>
<li>Taiwan's AI supply chain names have fallen over the last month, yet many have still outperformed Nvidia by a wide margin over the last six months.</li>
<li>We don't want to sell our Nvidia despite market risks -- We believe a basket of Taiwan AI stocks can act as a Short to hedge a Long Nvidia position.</li>
<li>Shorting a basket of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital Components can act as a hedge vs. a Long Nvidia position. Below we explain why.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan's AI supply chain names have fallen over the last month, yet many have still outperformed Nvidia by a wide margin over the last six months.
We don't want to sell our Nvidia despite market risks -- We believe a basket of Taiwan AI stocks can act as a Short to hedge a Long Nvidia position.
Shorting a basket of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital Components can act as a hedge vs. a Long Nvidia position. Below we explain why.


Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names: Four AI Plays to Short as Hedge Vs. An Nvidia Long

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

If the ~$5 billion (minus what it can get for ZT Systems manufacturing operations) AMD is paying to get its hands on 1,000 data center engineers...

William Keating

Microsoft's Billion Dollar Bets on OpenAI & G42; Azure to Benefit from Industry Growth

Microsoft's AI investments include $10B in OpenAI, $1.5B in G42, and $2.1B in Mistral AI. Azure's exclusivity with OpenAI ensures revenue. Leading...

Mint Finance

Nvidia Still Cheap: Enterprise AI Next Driver to Kick-In; Adjusting Our Taiwan AI Plays Short Hedge

Short a basket of Taiwan AI concept stocks vs. a core Nvidia Long position rather than take profits in Nvidia. We have swapped one stock in our...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names: Four AI Plays to Short as Hedge Vs. An Nvidia Long

Taiwan's AI supply chain names have fallen over the last month, yet many have still outperformed Nvidia by a wide margin over the last six months.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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