Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.</li>
<li>This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.</li>
</ul>


This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.
This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.
Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Quanta surged with major server wins from Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon. Nanya Tech results are two weeks ahead and Intel will host a webinar this week about its Foundry business.</li>
<li>Mediatek: Accelerating Momentum in Automotive, Data Center, and AI Memory Solutions </li>
<li>Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here? </li>
</ul>


Quanta surged with major server wins from Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon. Nanya Tech results are two weeks ahead and Intel will host a webinar this week about its Foundry business.
Mediatek: Accelerating Momentum in Automotive, Data Center, and AI Memory Solutions 
Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here? 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Quanta Surging on Nvidia Server Orders; Nanya Results Ahead; Intel Foundry Event

<ul>
<li>Mediatek is advancing full speed with recent industry collaborations for automotive chips, data center connectivity solutions, and AI memory solutions.</li>
<li>In particular, the company has entered the market for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), with partnerships announced with Foxconn and Ranovus.</li>
<li>While the stock has rallied and re-rated, consensus forward estimates do not appear overly demanding and could still have room to increase further.</li>
</ul>


Mediatek is advancing full speed with recent industry collaborations for automotive chips, data center connectivity solutions, and AI memory solutions.
In particular, the company has entered the market for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), with partnerships announced with Foxconn and Ranovus.
While the stock has rallied and re-rated, consensus forward estimates do not appear overly demanding and could still have room to increase further.


Mediatek: Accelerating Momentum in Automotive, Data Center, and AI Memory Solutions

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Autonomous Driving represents the perfect fusion of our love affair with automobiles and our fascination with artificial intelligence. It has been part of our collective imagination for decades, first epitomized at the 1939 New York World Fair Futurama exhibit which posited an automated highway system (AHS), sponsored by General Motors. Research on AHS conducted at The Ohio State University led to the development of the world's first partially autonomous vehicle in 1962. Fast forward half a century and the goal of achieving autonomous driving is firmly fixed in the glare of our automobile headlights. Leading automakers, as well as technology companies, are promising autonomous or at least highly autonomous automobiles within the next three years. At the forefront, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> represented by its automotive spin-off Waymo, is in the process of launching the world's first driverless taxi service in Phoenix, Arizona. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18811" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18811:1">General Motors Co (GM US)</a>, arguably the closest to Waymo in technology terms, has announced similar plans to launch an autonomous ride-sharing service in 2019.Not all is rosy in the autonomous driving garden, however. The sector has been plagued by high-profile defections of key staff leaving to either create their own startups or join competitors. These moves have led to equally high-profile and in some cases, embarrassing, law-suits. Other companies rush to hire talented artificial intelligence engineers has decimated the research ranks of leading universities.The safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology on our streets today has also been thrown into doubt in recent times. Just two days ago, on March 18'th, the first fatal accident involving an autonomous vehicle occurred in Phoenix Arizona, details <a href="https://electrek.co/2018/03/19/uber-self-driving-prototyp-fatal-crash-police/" target="_blank">here</a>. That vehicle was a Volvo XC90 and was part of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/430" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1">Uber Technologies Inc</a> self-driving test fleet in the city. According to initial reports, the vehicle was operating in autonomous mode and had a safety driver on board. While we need to await the outcome of this particular investigation, previous incidents involving other autonomous vehicles highlight some astonishing shortcomings of the technology being used on our streets today. Indeed, there are now serious questions about the viability of so-called Level 3 autonomous driving in so far as they rely on emergency intervention by a driver highly likely to have been distracted by something more exciting than monitoring an automobile driving by itself. Autonomous driving is a subject far too broad to be covered in a single Insight. Consider this a primer where we begin by examining the origins of autonomous driving, tracing its roots back to 1960s which, by no coincidence, was also the starting point for much of the research on modern-day artificial intelligence. We look at the specific factors which combined to propel autonomous driving from the AI laboratories of prestigious universities to the drawing boards of multinationals around the globe. We review the framework for the different levels of autonomous driving and highlight the fact that most auto OEM's choose to largely ignore them. We then examine in detail the aforementioned issues with Level 3 autonomous driving and reveal that the technology used in the Volvo XC90, the vehicle involved in the recent fatal accident in Phoenix, specifically warns in its user manual that it should not be used for city driving and that it cannot detect pedestrians, cyclists etc. Recognizing the seminal role that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> has played in advancing the technology, we provide an in-depth review of their self-driving initiative from its inception as a secretive Google X project to its current day incarnation as Waymo. By way of contrast, we examine the autonomous driving ambitions of one of the world's leading auto OEMs, General Motors, and provide a detailed review of their progress to date. Finally, we address the question on everybody's mind when it comes to autonomous driving - are we there yet?

Autonomous Driving represents the perfect fusion of our love affair with automobiles and our fascination with artificial intelligence. It has been part of our collective imagination for decades, first epitomized at the 1939 New York World Fair Futurama exhibit which posited an automated highway system (AHS), sponsored by General Motors. Research on AHS conducted at The Ohio State University led to the development of the world's first partially autonomous vehicle in 1962. Fast forward half a century and the goal of achieving autonomous driving is firmly fixed in the glare of our automobile headlights. Leading automakers, as well as technology companies, are promising autonomous or at least highly autonomous automobiles within the next three years. At the forefront, Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) represented by its automotive spin-off Waymo, is in the process of launching the world's first driverless taxi service in Phoenix, Arizona. General Motors Co (GM US), arguably the closest to Waymo in technology terms, has announced similar plans to launch an autonomous ride-sharing service in 2019.Not all is rosy in the autonomous driving garden, however. The sector has been plagued by high-profile defections of key staff leaving to either create their own startups or join competitors. These moves have led to equally high-profile and in some cases, embarrassing, law-suits. Other companies rush to hire talented artificial intelligence engineers has decimated the research ranks of leading universities.The safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology on our streets today has also been thrown into doubt in recent times. Just two days ago, on March 18'th, the first fatal accident involving an autonomous vehicle occurred in Phoenix Arizona, details here. That vehicle was a Volvo XC90 and was part of Uber Technologies Inc self-driving test fleet in the city. According to initial reports, the vehicle was operating in autonomous mode and had a safety driver on board. While we need to await the outcome of this particular investigation, previous incidents involving other autonomous vehicles highlight some astonishing shortcomings of the technology being used on our streets today. Indeed, there are now serious questions about the viability of so-called Level 3 autonomous driving in so far as they rely on emergency intervention by a driver highly likely to have been distracted by something more exciting than monitoring an automobile driving by itself. Autonomous driving is a subject far too broad to be covered in a single Insight. Consider this a primer where we begin by examining the origins of autonomous driving, tracing its roots back to 1960s which, by no coincidence, was also the starting point for much of the research on modern-day artificial intelligence. We look at the specific factors which combined to propel autonomous driving from the AI laboratories of prestigious universities to the drawing boards of multinationals around the globe. We review the framework for the different levels of autonomous driving and highlight the fact that most auto OEM's choose to largely ignore them. We then examine in detail the aforementioned issues with Level 3 autonomous driving and reveal that the technology used in the Volvo XC90, the vehicle involved in the recent fatal accident in Phoenix, specifically warns in its user manual that it should not be used for city driving and that it cannot detect pedestrians, cyclists etc. Recognizing the seminal role that Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) has played in advancing the technology, we provide an in-depth review of their self-driving initiative from its inception as a secretive Google X project to its current day incarnation as Waymo. By way of contrast, we examine the autonomous driving ambitions of one of the world's leading auto OEMs, General Motors, and provide a detailed review of their progress to date. Finally, we address the question on everybody's mind when it comes to autonomous driving - are we there yet?

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai shares have hit a new all-time high and have just risen past our target price of NT$155, surging after investors flocked to Hon Hai on AI news.</li>
<li>Hon Hai showcased two key technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference last week: Nvidia-based AI servers with liquid cooling systems and an AI autonomous driving controller using Nvidia's Orin X processor.</li>
<li>Hon Hai's sharp rally appears to have partly been caused by a short squeeze; While we like the long-term fundamentals and increased TP to NT$170, Hon Hai appears near-term overbought.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai shares have hit a new all-time high and have just risen past our target price of NT$155, surging after investors flocked to Hon Hai on AI news.
Hon Hai showcased two key technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference last week: Nvidia-based AI servers with liquid cooling systems and an AI autonomous driving controller using Nvidia's Orin X processor.
Hon Hai's sharp rally appears to have partly been caused by a short squeeze; While we like the long-term fundamentals and increased TP to NT$170, Hon Hai appears near-term overbought.


Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here?

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Quanta Surging on Nvidia Server Orders; Nanya Results Ahead; Intel Foundry Event

Quanta sees stock surge with server wins, Mediatek accelerates expansion in automotive and data center solutions. Intel will host a webinar about...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mediatek: Accelerating Momentum in Automotive, Data Center, and AI Memory Solutions

Mediatek is expanding rapidly with collaborations in automotive, data center, and AI, including new partnerships for Co-Packaged Optics,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Autonomous Driving- Are We There Yet?

I find it fascinating to read this again, almost six years to the day since I published it. I intend to publish an update on this topic in the...

William Keating

Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here?

Hon Hai shares surged to new all-time high after showcasing AI technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference. We believe a short squeeze may have been...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Quanta Surging on Nvidia Server Orders; Nanya Results Ahead; Intel Foundry Event

​Quanta sees stock surge with server wins, Mediatek accelerates expansion in automotive and data center solutions. Intel will host a webinar about...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mediatek: Accelerating Momentum in Automotive, Data Center, and AI Memory Solutions

​Mediatek is expanding rapidly with collaborations in automotive, data center, and AI, including new partnerships for Co-Packaged Optics,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Autonomous Driving- Are We There Yet?

I find it fascinating to read this again, almost six years to the day since I published it. I intend to publish an update on this topic in the...

William Keating

Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here?

​Hon Hai shares surged to new all-time high after showcasing AI technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference. We believe a short squeeze may have been...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quanta sees stock surge with server wins, Mediatek accelerates expansion in automotive and data center solutions. Intel will host a webinar about...

Mediatek is expanding rapidly with collaborations in automotive, data center, and AI, including new partnerships for Co-Packaged Optics,...

Hon Hai shares surged to new all-time high after showcasing AI technologies at Nvidia's GTC conference. We believe a short squeeze may have been...