Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7% on last week’s result. Let’s talk about the result and why it was so disappointing.</p></li><li>AMD exactly matched EPS, was slightly light on revenue, and guided essentially in line with Q2 guidance.</li><li><p>This also was one of the slightest EPS and revenue beats in recent years. The last time this happened, the PC segment was imploding. This time it’s embedded revenue.</p></li></ul>

I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7% on last week’s result. Let’s talk about the result and why it was so disappointing.AMD exactly matched EPS, was slightly light on revenue, and guided essentially in line with Q2 guidance.This also was one of the slightest EPS and revenue beats in recent years. The last time this happened, the PC segment was imploding. This time it’s embedded revenue.

AMD's MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 1Q24, it was reported that the revenue growth was -3.35% QoQ, slightly exceeding our expectation of a 5% QoQ decline.</li>
<li>For 2Q24, revenue is expected to grow, but the increase is projected to be less than 5% QoQ.  </li>
<li>NVIDIA revenue in KYEC is forecasted to reach 15% by the end of 2024F, up from about 2% in 2023, driven by the increasing demand for AI.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q24, it was reported that the revenue growth was -3.35% QoQ, slightly exceeding our expectation of a 5% QoQ decline.
For 2Q24, revenue is expected to grow, but the increase is projected to be less than 5% QoQ.  
NVIDIA revenue in KYEC is forecasted to reach 15% by the end of 2024F, up from about 2% in 2023, driven by the increasing demand for AI.


KYEC (2449.TT): 1Q24F Was a Seasonal Dip, but 2Q24F Should Be Picking up Below 5% QoQ.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenues of $5.5 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, down 11% QoQ but up 2% YoY.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, AMD forecasted the current quarter revenues of $5.7 billion, up 3.6% sequentially.</li>
<li>Share price down 7% in AH and down 35% from its recent 52 week high. We could see it retest the $100 level in the coming months</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenues of $5.5 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, down 11% QoQ but up 2% YoY.
Looking ahead, AMD forecasted the current quarter revenues of $5.7 billion, up 3.6% sequentially.
Share price down 7% in AH and down 35% from its recent 52 week high. We could see it retest the $100 level in the coming months


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung 1Q24 results beat consensus by a wide margin and the company gave strong guidance for its Memory segment, guiding for further strength driven by servers, PCs, &amp; phones needs.</li>
<li>Guided strong demand for PC/Mobile Memory in 2H24E driven by on-device AI, which supports the case of edge AI hardware beginning to drive demand in addition to cloud/server-based AI hardware.</li>
<li>Foundry segment's losses reduced, but still loss-making? Samsung's order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest manufacturing yield performance likely well behind TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Samsung 1Q24 results beat consensus by a wide margin and the company gave strong guidance for its Memory segment, guiding for further strength driven by servers, PCs, &amp; phones needs.
Guided strong demand for PC/Mobile Memory in 2H24E driven by on-device AI, which supports the case of edge AI hardware beginning to drive demand in addition to cloud/server-based AI hardware.
Foundry segment's losses reduced, but still loss-making? Samsung's order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest manufacturing yield performance likely well behind TSMC.


Deep Dive Into Samsung's Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.</li>
<li>Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.</li>
<li>Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.
Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.
Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

AMD's MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs

This is my earnings overview for the Hyperscalers, AMD, and thoughts specifically on FPGAs. I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7%...

Fabricated Knowledge

KYEC (2449.TT): 1Q24F Was a Seasonal Dip, but 2Q24F Should Be Picking up Below 5% QoQ.

1Q24 revenue growth was -3.35% QoQ, slightly exceeding our expectation of a 5% QoQ decline. 2Q24 revenue is projected to be less than 5% QoQ....

Patrick Liao

AMD. It's A Marathon, Not A Sprint

Q124 revenues of $5.5 billion, -11% QoQ , +2% YoY. Q224 forecast $5.7 billion, +3.6% QoQ. Shares down 7% AH, down 35% from 52 week high. One senes...

William Keating

Deep Dive Into Samsung's Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications

Foundry segment's losses reduced, but still loss-making. Samsung's order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Taiwan rebounded strongly last week alongside Nvidia and U.S. tech. This week will be another major earnings week. Apple's edge AI for user privacy...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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