IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36073:1" rel="noopener">K Bank (279570 KS)</a> is a Korean internet bank. It has launched an IPO to raise up to US$734 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/k-bank-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:159133" rel="noopener">K Bank IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on rising competitive intensity, the smallest deposit base among Internet banks, below-peer loan book growth, and a high-risk crypto play due to the Dunamu partnership.</li>
</ul>



K Bank (279570 KS) is a Korean internet bank. It has launched an IPO to raise up to US$734 million.
In K Bank IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on rising competitive intensity, the smallest deposit base among Internet banks, below-peer loan book growth, and a high-risk crypto play due to the Dunamu partnership.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36073:1" rel="noopener">K Bank (279570 KS)</a> is a Korean internet bank. It has launched an IPO to raise up to US$734 million. </li>
<li>K Bank began operations in April 2017 as the first internet-only bank in Korea. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Woori Bank (000030 KS)</a> are the two largest shareholders.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on rising market share, solid deposit growth, robust loan book growth, stable NIM, rising margins and a low NPL ratio.</li>
</ul>



K Bank (279570 KS) is a Korean internet bank. It has launched an IPO to raise up to US$734 million. 
K Bank began operations in April 2017 as the first internet-only bank in Korea. KT Corp (030200 KS) and Woori Bank (000030 KS) are the two largest shareholders.
The bull case rests on rising market share, solid deposit growth, robust loan book growth, stable NIM, rising margins and a low NPL ratio.


Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Compared to its overseas peers, K-Bank’s high valuation still stands out due to a significant gap in net income size relative to market cap.</li>
<li>The offering structure, with 50% secondary sales and weak lock-up commitments, means post-IPO float could spike to around 40%, making a stock price bump unlikely.</li>
<li>K-Bank’s crypto-focused model might attract investors valuing it as a crypto play, potentially influencing IPO pricing and post-listing stock performance.</li>
</ul>


Compared to its overseas peers, K-Bank’s high valuation still stands out due to a significant gap in net income size relative to market cap.
The offering structure, with 50% secondary sales and weak lock-up commitments, means post-IPO float could spike to around 40%, making a stock price bump unlikely.
K-Bank’s crypto-focused model might attract investors valuing it as a crypto play, potentially influencing IPO pricing and post-listing stock performance.


K-Bank’s IPO Details Out: Aggressive Pricing, but as a Crypto Play, It Might Surprise

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We stick with Bradesco as the key pick in big-cap Brazilian and LatAm banks, for its earnings recovery prospects; the very low PEG and PBV ratio reflect its re-rating potential</li>
<li>NuBank is a digital bank success story, but one that we see has challenges in terms of credit quality and it has potential capital constraints given its fast loan growth</li>
<li>We are neutral on Itaú and Banco do Brasil; Itaú seems to be fairly valued whilst Banco do Brasil is optically attractive, but it is more exposed to political risk</li>
</ul>


We stick with Bradesco as the key pick in big-cap Brazilian and LatAm banks, for its earnings recovery prospects; the very low PEG and PBV ratio reflect its re-rating potential
NuBank is a digital bank success story, but one that we see has challenges in terms of credit quality and it has potential capital constraints given its fast loan growth
We are neutral on Itaú and Banco do Brasil; Itaú seems to be fairly valued whilst Banco do Brasil is optically attractive, but it is more exposed to political risk


Big-Cap Brazilian Commercial Banks; Bradesco (BBDC4 BZ), the Earnings Recovery Play

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our active Global EM fund universe.</li>
<li>We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.</li>
<li>HDFC Bank loses steam after merger, Nu Holdings surges to new highs, POSCO plunges to new fund ownership lows.</li>
</ul>


This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our active Global EM fund universe.
We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.
HDFC Bank loses steam after merger, Nu Holdings surges to new highs, POSCO plunges to new fund ownership lows.


Active GEM Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

Brazil

NU Holdings Ltd. of the Cayman Islands operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides loans and digital banking services, as well as issues, administrates, processes, and transfers payments to post-paid credit cards and equity investments in other entities. NU Holdings serves clients worldwide.

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NU Holdings (NU US)

K Bank IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on rising competitive intensity, the smallest deposit base among Internet banks, below-peer loan book growth, and a high-risk...

Arun George

K Bank IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on rising market share, solid deposit growth, robust loan book growth, stable NIM, rising margins and a low NPL ratio.

Arun George

K-Bank’s IPO Details Out: Aggressive Pricing, but as a Crypto Play, It Might Surprise

This post breaks down K-Bank’s IPO prospectus, released late yesterday, and reviews the aggressive valuation, which could surprise if seen through...

Sanghyun Park

Big-Cap Brazilian Commercial Banks; Bradesco (BBDC4 BZ), the Earnings Recovery Play

With its strong earnings recovery potential, Bradesco remains our buy in Brazilian banks while NuBank faces credit quality and potential capital...

Victor Galliano

Active GEM Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

GEM Extreme Stocks. HDFC Bank loses steam after merger, Nu Holdings surges to new highs, POSCO plunges to new fund ownership lows.

Steven Holden

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

K Bank IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on rising competitive intensity, the smallest deposit base among Internet banks, below-peer loan book growth, and a high-risk...

Arun George

K Bank IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on rising market share, solid deposit growth, robust loan book growth, stable NIM, rising margins and a low NPL ratio.

Arun George

K-Bank’s IPO Details Out: Aggressive Pricing, but as a Crypto Play, It Might Surprise

This post breaks down K-Bank’s IPO prospectus, released late yesterday, and reviews the aggressive valuation, which could surprise if seen through...

Sanghyun Park

Big-Cap Brazilian Commercial Banks; Bradesco (BBDC4 BZ), the Earnings Recovery Play

​With its strong earnings recovery potential, Bradesco remains our buy in Brazilian banks while NuBank faces credit quality and potential capital...

Victor Galliano

Active GEM Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

GEM Extreme Stocks. HDFC Bank loses steam after merger, Nu Holdings surges to new highs, POSCO plunges to new fund ownership lows.

Steven Holden

With its strong earnings recovery potential, Bradesco remains our buy in Brazilian banks while NuBank faces credit quality and potential capital...