Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PegBio, a VC-backed biotech company, plans to tap capital markets in Hong Kong. CICC is leading the offering, and an IPO date has yet to be announced.</li>
<li>The company's pipeline features promising drug candidates designed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), obesity, NASH, OIC and congenital hyperinsulinemia. </li>
<li>PegBio employs a proprietary technology platform, called HECTOR, and has six drug candidates in the pipeline portfolio. PB-119 is their core product with the purpose to treat T2DM and obesity.</li>
</ul>


PegBio, a VC-backed biotech company, plans to tap capital markets in Hong Kong. CICC is leading the offering, and an IPO date has yet to be announced.
The company's pipeline features promising drug candidates designed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), obesity, NASH, OIC and congenital hyperinsulinemia. 
PegBio employs a proprietary technology platform, called HECTOR, and has six drug candidates in the pipeline portfolio. PB-119 is their core product with the purpose to treat T2DM and obesity.


PegBio IPO Preview: A Founder-Led Biopharma Player Fighting T2DM and Obesity in China

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pfizer seems to be the worst-performing large pharma stock of 2023 after it lowered 2024 forecast. The Company continues to grapple with plummeting demand for its COVID products</li>
<li>The acquisition of Seagen can't turn things around. Except a few products that are still able to maintain growth, sales of vast majority products that we’re familiar with are declining. </li>
<li>The growth engine of Pfizer in post-pandemic era is still uncertain. Even though Pfizer's share price has fallen sharply, this may still not be the time for bottom fishing.</li>
</ul>


Pfizer seems to be the worst-performing large pharma stock of 2023 after it lowered 2024 forecast. The Company continues to grapple with plummeting demand for its COVID products
The acquisition of Seagen can't turn things around. Except a few products that are still able to maintain growth, sales of vast majority products that we’re familiar with are declining. 
The growth engine of Pfizer in post-pandemic era is still uncertain. Even though Pfizer's share price has fallen sharply, this may still not be the time for bottom fishing.


Pfizer Inc (PFE US) - Continue to Lose Its Way in the Post-Pandemic Era

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Denmark

Novo Nordisk A/S develops, produces, and markets pharmaceutical products. The Company focuses on diabetes care and offers insulin delivery systems and other diabetes products. Novo Nordisk also works in areas such as haemostatis management, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The Company offers educational and training materials. Novo Nordisk markets worldwide.

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Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO US)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

PegBio IPO Preview: A Founder-Led Biopharma Player Fighting T2DM and Obesity in China

PegBio, a promising founder-led biotech company, is seeking to tap capital markets in Hong Kong. Their core product for the treatment of T2DM is at...

Andrei Zakharov

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Pfizer Inc (PFE US) - Continue to Lose Its Way in the Post-Pandemic Era

Pfizer's strategy in post-pandemic era is to "buy revenue", but sustainable growth is questionable because acquisitions may fail to bring...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

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