Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that in the data.</li><li>Core inflation momentum (MoM annualized) is below target in several large economies including the US, France and Brazil, but there are a few odd ones out with substantially increasing core inflation momentum such as Norway and the UK.</li><li>What makes Norway and the UK stand out?</li></ul>

We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that in the data.Core inflation momentum (MoM annualized) is below target in several large economies including the US, France and Brazil, but there are a few odd ones out with substantially increasing core inflation momentum such as Norway and the UK.What makes Norway and the UK stand out?

Inflation Watch: Why Norway and the UK are the odd ones out on inflation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Norges Bank hiked the key rate with 50bp last week to 3.75% and signalled new hikes both in August and September</li><li>They now see a key rate top at 4.25%, a forecast we agree with.</li><li>At close to 7%, core inflation has been much higher than anticipated yet again.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Norges Bank hiked the key rate with 50bp last week to 3.75% and signalled new hikes both in August and SeptemberThey now see a key rate top at 4.25%, a forecast we agree with.At close to 7%, core inflation has been much higher than anticipated yet again.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NO rate forecast update: Nibor at 5% before year-end

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Danish Consumers stronger than its neighbors due mortgage structures and lower inflation rates</li>
<li>Norges Bank selling too many NOK’s in the market compared to its income from dividends and oil &amp; gas</li>
<li>Sweden’s high beta industry suffering under inflation and rates shock </li>
</ul>


Danish Consumers stronger than its neighbors due mortgage structures and lower inflation rates
Norges Bank selling too many NOK’s in the market compared to its income from dividends and oil &amp; gas
Sweden’s high beta industry suffering under inflation and rates shock 


Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

<ul>
<li>Last week's spike in US asset prices, including US Treasuries, in the wake of gangbuster US CPI-inflation data for October, has proved short-lived.  </li>
<li>However, EM currencies have outperformed developed currencies since 1st November thanks partly to EM central bank policy rate hikes, a lack of currency contagion and domestic macro data.</li>
<li>We focus on low-volatility Asian currencies, the under-pressure Norwegian Krone, Polish Zloty,  Hungarian Forint and Euro and the importance of the release of UK retail sales data on Friday.</li>
</ul>


Last week's spike in US asset prices, including US Treasuries, in the wake of gangbuster US CPI-inflation data for October, has proved short-lived.  
However, EM currencies have outperformed developed currencies since 1st November thanks partly to EM central bank policy rate hikes, a lack of currency contagion and domestic macro data.
We focus on low-volatility Asian currencies, the under-pressure Norwegian Krone, Polish Zloty,  Hungarian Forint and Euro and the importance of the release of UK retail sales data on Friday.


FX Round-Up – Calm Before the Next Storm

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul>
<li>On 13 September, Norway will hold parliamentary elections to the 169-seat Stortinget. Polls suggest that the ruling coalition will lose power to a centre-left coalition, led by Arbeiderpartiet (Labour).</li>
<li>A win by the centre-left would probably strain Norway’s relationship with the EU, as some coalition members support a renegotiation. Nonetheless, we think any fundamental change in their relationship is unlikely at this stage.</li>
</ul>


On 13 September, Norway will hold parliamentary elections to the 169-seat Stortinget. Polls suggest that the ruling coalition will lose power to a centre-left coalition, led by Arbeiderpartiet (Labour).
A win by the centre-left would probably strain Norway’s relationship with the EU, as some coalition members support a renegotiation. Nonetheless, we think any fundamental change in their relationship is unlikely at this stage.


Norway

The Norwegian krone is the official currency of the Kingdom of Norway.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Inflation Watch: Why Norway and the UK are the odd ones out on inflation

We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that...

Steno Research

NO rate forecast update: Nibor at 5% before year-end

Norges Bank hiked the key rate with 50bp last week to 3.75% and signalled new hikes both in August and September. They now see a key rate top at...

Nordea

FX Watch: The Scandinavian FX Massacre

Norges Bank finally made a decent attempt at underpinning the NOK, but the issue is that rates don't really matter for the NOK.

Steno Research

FX Round-Up – Calm Before the Next Storm

Interest rate and FX vol has subsided with directionality in EM and developed market currencies driven by domestic macro data and monetary...

Olivier Desbarres

Norway: When the Fax Change

Norway's election on 13 September is likely to yield a new coalition government containing members that favour a renegotiation of terms with the...

Phil Rush

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