Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There are good reasons to chant “Europe, Europe, Europe” on the golf course, but not in financial markets as Europe is once again tested by commodity developments.</li>
<li>
Oil markets remain in the driver’s seat of everything in Global Macro and even if it already feels like this energy squeeze is old hat, we find a continued strong risk/reward in betting on higher energy prices.
</li>
<li>
Our “chart of the week” reveals that the paper-market volume behind this latest oil market rally is very low, leaving the fear of a stretched positioning relatively dampened, which will allow the undersupplied physical market to drive price action.
</li>
</ul>


There are good reasons to chant “Europe, Europe, Europe” on the golf course, but not in financial markets as Europe is once again tested by commodity developments.

Oil markets remain in the driver’s seat of everything in Global Macro and even if it already feels like this energy squeeze is old hat, we find a continued strong risk/reward in betting on higher energy prices.


Our “chart of the week” reveals that the paper-market volume behind this latest oil market rally is very low, leaving the fear of a stretched positioning relatively dampened, which will allow the undersupplied physical market to drive price action.



Steno Signals #67 – 150bps Higher 10yr Yields and Parity up Next in EURUSD?

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>It is a big central bank week with the FOMC meeting concluding on Wednesday, while four of the bigger European central banks report/decide on Thursday.</li><li>US: Can the Fed pause with accelerating inflation?</li><li>Nothing is priced for this meeting but we expect the updated projections to include another hike in the modal outcome from the FOMC members.</li></ul>

It is a big central bank week with the FOMC meeting concluding on Wednesday, while four of the bigger European central banks report/decide on Thursday.US: Can the Fed pause with accelerating inflation?Nothing is priced for this meeting but we expect the updated projections to include another hike in the modal outcome from the FOMC members.

Central Bank Watch: 5 charts on the Central Bank bonanza week!

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Update.</li>
<li>We have had a great week as Energy continues to outperform more labor-intensive sectors, while the USD shrugged off a weak job openings report to rebound into month-end.</li>
<li>The overarching theme from an allocation standpoint is the divergence between Services and Manufacturing.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Update.
We have had a great week as Energy continues to outperform more labor-intensive sectors, while the USD shrugged off a weak job openings report to rebound into month-end.
The overarching theme from an allocation standpoint is the divergence between Services and Manufacturing.


Portfolio Watch: Manufacturing versus Services

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>There was some excitement amongst market participant wether Norges Bank could once more hike by 50bp after the inflation up-shoot in June.</li><li>However with July inflation broadly in line with the central bank’s view, the excitement has disappeared.</li><li>We expect Norges Bank to stick to it plan from June and increase the key rate by 25bp to 4.0%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

There was some excitement amongst market participant wether Norges Bank could once more hike by 50bp after the inflation up-shoot in June.However with July inflation broadly in line with the central bank’s view, the excitement has disappeared.We expect Norges Bank to stick to it plan from June and increase the key rate by 25bp to 4.0%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Norges Bank Preview: Sticking to the plan

<ul>
<li>We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.</li>
<li>If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.</li>
</ul>


We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.
The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.
If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.


Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

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Steno Signals #67 – 150bps Higher 10yr Yields and Parity up Next in EURUSD?

There are good reasons to chant “Europe, Europe, Europe” on the golf course, but not in financial markets as Europe is once again tested by...

Steno Research

Central Bank Watch: 5 charts on the Central Bank bonanza week!

It is a big central bank week with the FOMC meeting concluding on Wednesday, while four of the bigger European central banks report/decide on...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Manufacturing versus Services

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Update. We have had a great week as 1) Energy continues to outperform more labor-intensive sectors, while the USD...

Steno Research

Norges Bank Preview: Sticking to the plan

There was some excitement amongst market participant wether Norges Bank could once more hike by 50bp after the inflation up-shoot in June.

Nordea

Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former...

Steno Research

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