Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> closed the week down (CC=-2) at 32307.86, it's OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. </li>
<li>Our hypothesis is that this pullback is about to end (it could last maybe another week, or maybe it's already over...), and will be followed by higher prices.</li>
<li>Go LONG the Nikkei 225 in the support area between 31000 and 32000, this coming week.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) closed the week down (CC=-2) at 32307.86, it's OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. 
Our hypothesis is that this pullback is about to end (it could last maybe another week, or maybe it's already over...), and will be followed by higher prices.
Go LONG the Nikkei 225 in the support area between 31000 and 32000, this coming week.


<ul>
<li>After a strong rally in November, the Nikkei is currently in a temporary corrective phase, reaching between the Q1 and Q2 support levels of the MRM LONG chart. </li>
<li>There are 2 possible paths from here: 1) a modest pullback, followed by a rally into the end of December, 2) a dive to &lt;= 31672, and December closes down.</li>
<li>Both these scenarios offer very good seasonal LONG odds for January closing up (based on our SRM model), so we suggest going LONG the Nikkei 225 on the pullback.</li>
</ul>


After a strong rally in November, the Nikkei is currently in a temporary corrective phase, reaching between the Q1 and Q2 support levels of the MRM LONG chart. 
There are 2 possible paths from here: 1) a modest pullback, followed by a rally into the end of December, 2) a dive to &lt;= 31672, and December closes down.
Both these scenarios offer very good seasonal LONG odds for January closing up (based on our SRM model), so we suggest going LONG the Nikkei 225 on the pullback.


<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> closed the month of October down, 4 months down in a row (CC=-4), very OVERSOLD MONTHLY. The 30600 support indicated in our last MONTHLY insight did hold somehow. </li>
<li>We think the Nikkei could continue to rally in November, but this explosive, fast rally, at one point will have to retrace back, before it can continue up. </li>
<li>The index could rally for 2 months, into December. The target prices for the end of the rally are near 34000.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei closed the month of October down, 4 months down in a row (CC=-4), very OVERSOLD MONTHLY. The 30600 support indicated in our last MONTHLY insight did hold somehow. 
We think the Nikkei could continue to rally in November, but this explosive, fast rally, at one point will have to retrace back, before it can continue up. 
The index could rally for 2 months, into December. The target prices for the end of the rally are near 34000.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY)'s November Rally: How Far Can It GO?

<ul>
<li>Last week, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> closed down at 30991.69 (CC=-2). The index's sell-off could end in November, marking a temporary bottom from which a rally could start.</li>
<li>MRM models say that if the Nikkei bounces this week, it could rise for 3 weeks and reach a price area between 31624 (Q3/CC=+1) and 32892 (Q3/Gen.Pattern Boxplot).</li>
<li>The upcoming rally comes as a reaction to quite OVERSOLD conditions, as previously discussed, but could be followed by another pullback. This insight points to where the rally may end.</li>
</ul>


Last week, the Nikkei closed down at 30991.69 (CC=-2). The index's sell-off could end in November, marking a temporary bottom from which a rally could start.
MRM models say that if the Nikkei bounces this week, it could rise for 3 weeks and reach a price area between 31624 (Q3/CC=+1) and 32892 (Q3/Gen.Pattern Boxplot).
The upcoming rally comes as a reaction to quite OVERSOLD conditions, as previously discussed, but could be followed by another pullback. This insight points to where the rally may end.


EQD | If the Nikkei Begins to Rally, Where Will It Encounter Resistance?

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY) INDEX</a> closed last week down at 31259.36. It's currently trading between the Q2 and Q3 WEEKLY support levels and down for 4 months, so it's OVERSOLD.</li>
<li>The index could reverse this week, or fall more into the end of October, but if this week closes down, the odds are very good for a rally in November.</li>
<li>Consider going LONG between here and supports in the 30600-30400 price area, a MONTHLY reversal could last at least 2-4 weeks (a month).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY) INDEX closed last week down at 31259.36. It's currently trading between the Q2 and Q3 WEEKLY support levels and down for 4 months, so it's OVERSOLD.
The index could reverse this week, or fall more into the end of October, but if this week closes down, the odds are very good for a rally in November.
Consider going LONG between here and supports in the 30600-30400 price area, a MONTHLY reversal could last at least 2-4 weeks (a month).


EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

EQD | Nikkei 225 WEEKLY Analysis

The Nikkei 225 closed the week down and is oversold, but our models suggest that the pullback is ending and higher prices may follow. The...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Analysis

The Nikkei is in a temporary correction phase, with 2 possible paths ahead: a modest pullback followed by a rally, or a dive below 32000 with...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY)'s November Rally: How Far Can It GO?

The Nikkei closed October down, 4 months down, OVERSOLD, now rallying in November but will retrace back if it goes up too fast. The rally could...

Nico Rosti

EQD | If the Nikkei Begins to Rally, Where Will It Encounter Resistance?

The Nikkei's recent sell-off may reach a temporary bottom in November, the following rally could last for 3 weeks, with target price in the 31624...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming

The Nikkei 225 index is currently OVERSOLD WEEKLY and MONTHLY. A rally in November may finally start, if this week closes down, making it a good...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 WEEKLY Analysis

​The Nikkei 225 closed the week down and is oversold, but our models suggest that the pullback is ending and higher prices may follow. The...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Analysis

​The Nikkei is in a temporary correction phase, with 2 possible paths ahead: a modest pullback followed by a rally, or a dive below 32000 with...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY)'s November Rally: How Far Can It GO?

​The Nikkei closed October down, 4 months down, OVERSOLD, now rallying in November but will retrace back if it goes up too fast. The rally could...

Nico Rosti

EQD | If the Nikkei Begins to Rally, Where Will It Encounter Resistance?

​The Nikkei's recent sell-off may reach a temporary bottom in November, the following rally could last for 3 weeks, with target price in the 31624...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming

​The Nikkei 225 index is currently OVERSOLD WEEKLY and MONTHLY. A rally in November may finally start, if this week closes down, making it a good...

Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 closed the week down and is oversold, but our models suggest that the pullback is ending and higher prices may follow. The...

The Nikkei is in a temporary correction phase, with 2 possible paths ahead: a modest pullback followed by a rally, or a dive below 32000 with...

The Nikkei closed October down, 4 months down, OVERSOLD, now rallying in November but will retrace back if it goes up too fast. The rally could...

The Nikkei's recent sell-off may reach a temporary bottom in November, the following rally could last for 3 weeks, with target price in the 31624...

The Nikkei 225 index is currently OVERSOLD WEEKLY and MONTHLY. A rally in November may finally start, if this week closes down, making it a good...