Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With over 90% of the review period complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We estimate passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> trackers will need to buy nearly 7% of the real float on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> and the stock should continue to outperform. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-transmission-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26712:1" rel="noopener">Adani Transmission (ADANIT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART)</a> have higher average free float market caps and could be included if added to the F&amp;O segment.</li>
</ul>


With over 90% of the review period complete, Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) is a high probability inclusion to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and will replace Shree Cement (SRCM IN). 
We estimate passive NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) trackers will need to buy nearly 7% of the real float on Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) and the stock should continue to outperform. 

Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR), Adani Transmission (ADANIT) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART) have higher average free float market caps and could be included if added to the F&amp;O segment.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Nifty short bet from 16,750 is panning out. Gap lower and downside impulse calls for further weakness.</li>
<li>India remains vulnerable to spill over from the global cycle after holding up over recent months. Any break below lower wedge line support would be a bigger negative structurally.</li>
<li>Watch for bounce just under 15k near lower wedge support w RSI near 25. 15,800 fresh sell resistance stands out.</li>
</ul>


Nifty short bet from 16,750 is panning out. Gap lower and downside impulse calls for further weakness.
India remains vulnerable to spill over from the global cycle after holding up over recent months. Any break below lower wedge line support would be a bigger negative structurally.
Watch for bounce just under 15k near lower wedge support w RSI near 25. 15,800 fresh sell resistance stands out.


<ul>
<li>India is a market (like Taiwan) that faces a shakeout into summer turbulence after holding the top end of the range since late 2021 albeit amid a drifting decline.</li>
<li>Nifty met the gap resistance to test the short side with a higher conviction sell zone closer to that 17k of support (now pivotal resistance).</li>
<li>USD/INR bull triangle maturing and did not blink during the USD pullback in Asia. 76.50/70 buy support if we do get a dip.</li>
</ul>


India is a market (like Taiwan) that faces a shakeout into summer turbulence after holding the top end of the range since late 2021 albeit amid a drifting decline.
Nifty met the gap resistance to test the short side with a higher conviction sell zone closer to that 17k of support (now pivotal resistance).
USD/INR bull triangle maturing and did not blink during the USD pullback in Asia. 76.50/70 buy support if we do get a dip.


<ul>
<li>We are past the halfway mark in the review period for the September rebalance of the NIFTY100 Index. We see five potential changes which should be announced end August.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> being added to the index.</li>
<li>High probability deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lupin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17910:1" rel="noopener">Lupin Ltd (LPC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We are past the halfway mark in the review period for the September rebalance of the NIFTY100 Index. We see five potential changes which should be announced end August.
There is a high probability of Tata Power (TPWR IN), Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN), Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) and Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) being added to the index.
High probability deletions are Lupin Ltd (LPC IN), Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN), Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN), Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) and Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN).


NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in September

<ul>
<li>We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> being included in the index, while either <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.
There is a high probability of Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) being included in the index, while either Shree Cement (SRCM IN) or Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) will be deleted.
The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

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India near Support and Bear Targets

Nifty short bet from 16,750 is panning out. Gap lower and downside impulse calls for further weakness. Near support for a bounce near 14,700 with...

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Nifty Sub 17k Barrier Short Zone

India is a market (like Taiwan) that faces a shakeout into summer turbulence after holding the top end of the range since late 2021 albeit amid a...

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NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in September

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NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

Adani Enterprises is a high probability add to the NIFTY50 in Sep. Shree Cement is the current delete, though Hero Motocorp is close. There will be...

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