Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

Earlier this month a note titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-pain-and-the-gain-in-equities-and-fx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47142" rel="noopener">The Pain and the Gain in Equities and FX</a> was shared on SmartKarma trying to highlight the short term risks in these markets. In that note it was concluded that one should “look out for opportunities to re-engage in equity markets anywhere between 5%-10% below current levels. Similarly expect signals to short the USD again over the weeks ahead.”
As we now appear to be in the middle of this correction down in many equity indices, the following note attempts to highlight key support zones for major indices around the world in preparation for re-engaging in markets for a longer lasting and more underlying bull trend.

Earlier this month a note titled The Pain and the Gain in Equities and FX was shared on SmartKarma trying to highlight the short term risks in these markets. In that note it was concluded that one should “look out for opportunities to re-engage in equity markets anywhere between 5%-10% below current levels. Similarly expect signals to short the USD again over the weeks ahead.”
As we now appear to be in the middle of this correction down in many equity indices, the following note attempts to highlight key support zones for major indices around the world in preparation for re-engaging in markets for a longer lasting and more underlying bull trend. 

Where to Prepare for the 'Gain' in Equities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 25 March and the announcement of the changes will be done four weeks prior to the effective date.We are now almost at the end of the review period. There are 3 stocks that meet the criteria for inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-lombard-general-insura" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25882:1" rel="noopener">Icici Lombard General Insurance Company (ICICIGI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>. The three lowest ranked stocks in the index are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gail-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15263:1" rel="noopener">Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20776:1" rel="noopener">UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)</a>.We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a> being included and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gail-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15263:1" rel="noopener">Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN)</a> being excluded, and a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-lombard-general-insura" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25882:1" rel="noopener">Icici Lombard General Insurance Company (ICICIGI IN)</a> being included and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> being excluded.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>'s average free float market cap is less than 1% lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-lombard-general-insura" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25882:1" rel="noopener">Icici Lombard General Insurance Company (ICICIGI IN)</a> - can get close going into the tail end of the review period.The index committee has a wide berth when choosing the number of changes to be made and it is highly unlikely that there will be more than 2 changes, especially since a maximum of 5 changes can be made in a year.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts (DMART IN)</a> has the highest market cap among non index constituents but is not eligible for index inclusion since there are no listed Futures and Options on the stock, a prerequisite for index inclusion.

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 25 March and the announcement of the changes will be done four weeks prior to the effective date.We are now almost at the end of the review period. There are 3 stocks that meet the criteria for inclusion in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX): Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN), Icici Lombard General Insurance Company (ICICIGI IN) and Info Edge India (INFOE IN). The three lowest ranked stocks in the index are Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN), Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) and UPL Ltd (UPLL IN).We see a high probability of Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) being included and Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN) being excluded, and a lower probability of Icici Lombard General Insurance Company (ICICIGI IN) being included and Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) being excluded.Info Edge India (INFOE IN)'s average free float market cap is less than 1% lower than Icici Lombard General Insurance Company (ICICIGI IN) - can get close going into the tail end of the review period.The index committee has a wide berth when choosing the number of changes to be made and it is highly unlikely that there will be more than 2 changes, especially since a maximum of 5 changes can be made in a year.Avenue Supermarts (DMART IN) has the highest market cap among non index constituents but is not eligible for index inclusion since there are no listed Futures and Options on the stock, a prerequisite for index inclusion.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview - Nearing The End of the Review Period

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Market is ahead of itself after the vaccine push and faces the reality of slower growth/higher cases into the winter and a stimulus void. Impulsive rallies are bullish but looking frothy tactically where one must protect against a draw down back within US pattern ranges if we crack SPX 3,500 support. Bullish sentiment near extremes with risk of a harder than expected pullback.Asia and Europe are showing short term overbought signals with most RSI's knocking on 75+ readings.Rally targets are being met where we like taking some money off the table and work through fresh buy levels and forward rally targets.

Market is ahead of itself after the vaccine push and faces the reality of slower growth/higher cases into the winter and a stimulus void. Impulsive rallies are bullish but looking frothy tactically where one must protect against a draw down back within US pattern ranges if we crack SPX 3,500 support. Bullish sentiment near extremes with risk of a harder than expected pullback.Asia and Europe are showing short term overbought signals with most RSI's knocking on 75+ readings.Rally targets are being met where we like taking some money off the table and work through fresh buy levels and forward rally targets.

Asia Reduce and Fresh Buy Levels for Next Push

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Favored longs in A shares, ASX, Japan, Taiwan and Korea are hitting some resistance levels (to reduce longs) and sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. This fade stems from the likelihood of bull energy being deflated given Trump will contest election results and call for re counts which in turn will delay stimulus certainty and see the current euphoric rally pause as bull triangles form in the SPX and NDX (buy weakness). Fed remarks on slowing growth concerns may also throw water on this reaction spike. We like adding risk on weakness.Shorts outlined to trade a pullback lower short term.

Favored longs in A shares, ASX, Japan, Taiwan and Korea are hitting some resistance levels (to reduce longs) and sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. This fade stems from the likelihood of bull energy being deflated given Trump will contest election results and call for re counts which in turn will delay stimulus certainty and see the current euphoric rally pause as bull triangles form in the SPX and NDX (buy weakness). Fed remarks on slowing growth concerns may also throw water on this reaction spike. We like adding risk on weakness.Shorts outlined to trade a pullback lower short term.

<div>The S&amp;P BSE Sensex is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float market cap weighted index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.</div><div>
The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> continues to remain a high probability inclusion, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a> is the corresponding deletion candidate. There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> being included in the Sensex, in which case <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> would be deleted.
Since we published our first Insight at the beginning of September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> by 20% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/torrent-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15762:1" rel="noopener">Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN)</a> by 24%. We would take off the positions and wait for a reversal before re-entering the trade.
The ratio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20751:1" rel="noopener">Oil India Ltd (OINL IN)</a> is trading close to its lows providing an entry point into a long ONGC/ short Oil India trade.
This Insight is marked as bearish due to Dr Reddy's recent outperformance versus its peers that could revert in the near future.
</div>

The S&amp;P BSE Sensex is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float market cap weighted index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.
The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) continues to remain a high probability inclusion, and Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) is the corresponding deletion candidate. There is a lower probability of Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) being included in the Sensex, in which case Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) would be deleted.
Since we published our first Insight at the beginning of September, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) has outperformed Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN) by 20% and Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) by 24%. We would take off the positions and wait for a reversal before re-entering the trade.
The ratio of Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) to Oil India Ltd (OINL IN) is trading close to its lows providing an entry point into a long ONGC/ short Oil India trade.
This Insight is marked as bearish due to Dr Reddy's recent outperformance versus its peers that could revert in the near future.


Sensex Index Rebalance Preview: Take Profit on Strong Outperformance

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Where to Prepare for the 'Gain' in Equities

As we correct down in many equity indices, this note attempts to identify levels where markets are likely to be supported

Shyam Devani

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview - Nearing The End of the Review Period

There is just over a week remaining in the review period. We expect TATACONS to replace GAIL, and see a low probability of ICICIGI replacing IOCL....

Brian Freitas

Asia Reduce and Fresh Buy Levels for Next Push

Rally targets in Asia are being met where we like taking some money off the table and work through fresh buy levels and forward rally targets....

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Fade Levels and Fresh Long Supports

Asia is kissing key resistance levels that sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. Trump will contest election results/call for re...

Thomas Schroeder

Sensex Index Rebalance Preview: Take Profit on Strong Outperformance

With the review period for the Sensex almost complete, we still see DRRD as a high probability inclusion and ONGC as a deletion. With DRRD...

Brian Freitas