Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>Currently, we expect four ADDs and four DELs. There are roughly two more months left in the reference period.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we expect four ADDs and four DELs. There are roughly two more months left in the reference period.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Four Changes Likely; Capping to Be Introduced

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We maintain an Overweight rating on the title loan sector, supported by our forecasted net profit growth of a 12.7% CAGR in 2025-27E for the companies under our coverage.</li><li>The growth will be driven by lower provisioning expenses in tandem with ongoing loan expansion, albeit at a slower pace, in line with a quality-focused growth strategy aimed at maintaining asset quality.</li><li>Meanwhile, stock prices have already priced in the 1Q25E outlook, which is the low season for the sector, as reflected in the equity risk premium (ERP) trading at +2 S.D. </li></ul>

We maintain an Overweight rating on the title loan sector, supported by our forecasted net profit growth of a 12.7% CAGR in 2025-27E for the companies under our coverage.The growth will be driven by lower provisioning expenses in tandem with ongoing loan expansion, albeit at a slower pace, in line with a quality-focused growth strategy aimed at maintaining asset quality.Meanwhile, stock prices have already priced in the 1Q25E outlook, which is the low season for the sector, as reflected in the equity risk premium (ERP) trading at +2 S.D. 

Finance & Securities (Title Loan): Quality Growth to Support Continued Improvement in Asset Quality

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> later this month following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.</li>
</ul>



VGI PCL (VGI TB) could be added to the SET50 INDEX later this month following the Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) / Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) merger.
Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.
Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in VGI PCL (VGI TB) while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 in the run up to the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>The GULF-INTUCH M&amp;A event could trigger an intra-review change within the next few weeks. Then there could be more regular index changes in June 2025.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 in the run up to the index rebal event in June 2025.
The GULF-INTUCH M&amp;A event could trigger an intra-review change within the next few weeks. Then there could be more regular index changes in June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

<ul><li>The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to slash the policy interest rate to 2% from 2.25%, contrary to market expectations, owing to concerns that GDP growth may fall below projections.</li><li>The rate cut, alongside debt relief measures and the government's preparation of additional economic stimulus, signals a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support the economy.</li><li>Sectors expected to benefit from these measures include the consumer-related sector (CPALL), finance sector (MTC, TIDLOR, SAWAD, JMT), and real estate sector (SPALI, AP, SC). </li></ul>

The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to slash the policy interest rate to 2% from 2.25%, contrary to market expectations, owing to concerns that GDP growth may fall below projections.The rate cut, alongside debt relief measures and the government's preparation of additional economic stimulus, signals a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support the economy.Sectors expected to benefit from these measures include the consumer-related sector (CPALL), finance sector (MTC, TIDLOR, SAWAD, JMT), and real estate sector (SPALI, AP, SC). 

Economic Update: Rate Cut by 0.25% to 2.00%: MPC Kicks off 2025 with an Unexpected Rate Cut

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Four Changes Likely; Capping to Be Introduced

There could be 4x ADV to buy in Thanachart (TCAP TB) and we see this as a high-conviction ADD. Some of the other ADDs/DELs are closer to the border...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Finance & Securities (Title Loan): Quality Growth to Support Continued Improvement in Asset Quality

We maintain an Overweight rating on the title loan sector, supported by our forecasted net profit growth of a 12.7% CAGR in 2025-27E for the...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

VGI could be added to the index later this month following the GULF/INTUCH merger. Then there could be 3/4 more changes in June. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

VGI PCL (VGI TB) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB) are the two names leading the race to become the intra-review SET50 ADD for the GULF-INTUCH...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Economic Update: Rate Cut by 0.25% to 2.00%: MPC Kicks off 2025 with an Unexpected Rate Cut

The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to slash the policy interest rate to 2% from 2.25%, contrary to market expectations

Krungthai XSpring

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