Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research report on June 5, 2024. </li><li>The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.</li></ul>

We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research report on June 5, 2024. The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.

NGERN TID LOR - 2Q24E Earnings to Have Grown YoY but Declined QoQ

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June 2024 index changes for Thailand's SET 50 index were announced after market close yesterday (17th June 2024).</li>
<li>Initially we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-set50-jun-24-3-changes-likely-banpu-still-not-safe-from-deletion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected only three changes</a> but after the index methodology was revised in May 2024, we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-set50-jun-24-banpu-vs-sawad-has-to-be-monitored-closely" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised our expectations</a> and we had 4 expected ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>All 4 expected ADDs/DELs turned out to correct. In this insight, we take a look at our estimation of expected flows and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.</li>
</ul>


The June 2024 index changes for Thailand's SET 50 index were announced after market close yesterday (17th June 2024).
Initially we expected only three changes but after the index methodology was revised in May 2024, we revised our expectations and we had 4 expected ADDs/DELs.
All 4 expected ADDs/DELs turned out to correct. In this insight, we take a look at our estimation of expected flows and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.


Quiddity SET 50 Jun 24 Rebal: 4 Changes Confirmed; LONGs up 5.2% Vs SHORTs in a Month

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>Although 80% of the 3-month reference period is now complete, it is still possible for the rankings to change.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
Although 80% of the 3-month reference period is now complete, it is still possible for the rankings to change.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: BANPU Vs SAWAD Has to Be Monitored Closely

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt21.87 (vs. Bt24.11), based on the earnings yield and a revised required rate of return of 7.9% (vs. 6.8%) following the adjustment to the macroeconomic factors used for the beta calculation based on our new house view.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.</li><li>Meanwhile, the tactical downside risk is limited</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt21.87 (vs. Bt24.11), based on the earnings yield and a revised required rate of return of 7.9% (vs. 6.8%) following the adjustment to the macroeconomic factors used for the beta calculation based on our new house view.The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.Meanwhile, the tactical downside risk is limited

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.</li><li>The 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1,104mn (+15.6% YoY and +22.5% QoQ), beating our forecast by 9%, as the cost-to-income ratio and the provision were smaller than expected.</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.The 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1,104mn (+15.6% YoY and +22.5% QoQ), beating our forecast by 9%, as the cost-to-income ratio and the provision were smaller than expected.

Ngern Tid Lor - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings with Lower Credit Costs QoQ

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

Srisawad Finance Public Company Limited offers financial services. The Company engages in various kinds of investments for public such as deposit receipts and bills of exchange, provides commercial loan facilities, and invests in securities. Srisawad Finance serves individuals, corporate entities, financial institutes, and associations in Thailand.

Srisawad Finance Public Company Limited (BFIT TB)

AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Company Limited provides consumer financial services.  The Company offers hire purchase loans for household products such as appliances, electronic equipment, and furniture, as well as other unsecured personal loans for general purposes.  It also issues locally accepted AEON credit cards, and internationally accepted Mastercards and JCB credit cards.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited operates as a commercial lending company. The Company provides car title, personal, agricultural vehicle, land title, and other loan products. Muangthai Capital serves customers in Thailand.

Ratchthani Leasing Public Company Limited provides hire-purchase and leasing services for used automobiles to businesses and retail consumers in Thailand.

Asia Sermkij Leasing Public Company Limited provides financing services for purchasing of new and used automobiles.  The Company also provides personal loans, and financial services to automobile dealers.

Thitikorn Public Company Limited provides hire purchase financing services for motorcycles and automobiles.

Amanah Leasing PCL provides financing services for the purchase of new and used automobiles.

Eastern Commercial Leasing Public Company Limited provides hire-purchase and lease financing services for used automobiles.

MIDA Leasing Public Company Limited provides hire-purchase and leasing services for both personal vehicles and pick up trucks, working capital loan for second-hand car dealer.  The company also provides refinancing services for car loan and additional services such as renewal of annual vehicle duty, car insurance policy and third-party car insurance.

AIFUL CORPORATION is a consumer financing firm.  The Company provides financial services such as unsecured and non-guaranteed loans, commercial loans, and real estate collateral loans.

Orient Corporation provides consumer credit services.  The Company's services include credit cards, consumer installment credits, loan guarantees, leasing, and loans.

JACCS CO., LTD. is a consumer credit company.  The Company provides consumer installment credits, credit cards, loan guarantees and loans.  Jaccs also operates car lease and art rental businesses and have subsidiaries in U.S., Singapore, and Hong Kong.

AEON Financial Service Co Ltd is a credit card company.  The Company's financial services include loans, credit cards, and customer installment credits.

Encore Capital Group, Inc. is involved in consumer debt buying and recovery. The company purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables from banks, credit unions, and utility providers and partners with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery.

Navient Corporation's focus is in education loan portfolio management, servicing and asset recovery. The Company acts as a servicer for Department of Education and FFELP loans as well as private student loans.

PT Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk provides consumer financing services.

Hong Leong Finance Limited provides depository and financing services to its clients.  The Company's services include hire purchase, leasing, factoring, mortgages, and other secured loans in the commercial, industrial, and consumer sectors.

Aeon Credit Service M Bhd provides consumer financing products.  The Company offers products such as easy payment, personal financing, and credit cards.

World Acceptance Corporation operates a small-loan consumer finance business. The Company offers short-term loans, related credit insurance, and ancillary products and services to individuals.  World Acceptance generally serves individuals with limited access to other sources of consumer credit from banks, savings and loans, other consumer finance businesses, and credit cards.

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)

NGERN TID LOR - 2Q24E Earnings to Have Grown YoY but Declined QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity SET 50 Jun 24 Rebal: 4 Changes Confirmed; LONGs up 5.2% Vs SHORTs in a Month

Our sector-neutral trade ideas have generated a long-short return of 5.2% in a month which was significantly better than being LONG 4 Expected ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: BANPU Vs SAWAD Has to Be Monitored Closely

After considering the recent methodology changes (relaxing the liquidity criteria), we believe BJC will be added in June 2024 and that could cause...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NGERN TID LOR - Earnings Recovery Path

The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings with Lower Credit Costs QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the...

Krungthai XSpring

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