Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy call but revise down the fair value to Bt19.17 from Bt22.62 following the downward revisions to our 2024-26E earnings forecasts.</li><li>Our fair value is based on the earnings yield, with a required return of 8.1%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the current share price implies upside of around 39% to our fair price. </li></ul>

We maintain a Buy call but revise down the fair value to Bt19.17 from Bt22.62 following the downward revisions to our 2024-26E earnings forecasts.Our fair value is based on the earnings yield, with a required return of 8.1%.The valuation metrics suggest that the current share price implies upside of around 39% to our fair price. 

Ngern Tid Lor - Revised Down Earnings Forecasts to Reflect Weak Asset Quality

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy rating, with a 12M fair value of Bt22.62, based on a required return of 7.8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 44.3% to the fair value.</li><li>The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, while the tactical downside risk is still limited.</li></ul>

We maintain a Buy rating, with a 12M fair value of Bt22.62, based on a required return of 7.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 44.3% to the fair value.The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, while the tactical downside risk is still limited.

<ul><li>We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research report on June 5, 2024. </li><li>The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.</li></ul>

We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research report on June 5, 2024. The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.

NGERN TID LOR - 2Q24E Earnings to Have Grown YoY but Declined QoQ

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt21.87 (vs. Bt24.11), based on the earnings yield and a revised required rate of return of 7.9% (vs. 6.8%) following the adjustment to the macroeconomic factors used for the beta calculation based on our new house view.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.</li><li>Meanwhile, the tactical downside risk is limited</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt21.87 (vs. Bt24.11), based on the earnings yield and a revised required rate of return of 7.9% (vs. 6.8%) following the adjustment to the macroeconomic factors used for the beta calculation based on our new house view.The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.Meanwhile, the tactical downside risk is limited

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.</li><li>The 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1,104mn (+15.6% YoY and +22.5% QoQ), beating our forecast by 9%, as the cost-to-income ratio and the provision were smaller than expected.</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.The 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1,104mn (+15.6% YoY and +22.5% QoQ), beating our forecast by 9%, as the cost-to-income ratio and the provision were smaller than expected.

Ngern Tid Lor - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings with Lower Credit Costs QoQ

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)

Ngern Tid Lor - Revised Down Earnings Forecasts to Reflect Weak Asset Quality

We maintain a Buy call but revise down the fair value to Bt19.17 from Bt22.62 following the downward revisions to our 2024-26E earnings forecasts.

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor - Slightly Upbeat 2Q24 NP

We maintain a Buy rating, with a 12M fair value of Bt22.62, based on a required return of 7.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price...

Krungthai XSpring

NGERN TID LOR - 2Q24E Earnings to Have Grown YoY but Declined QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by...

Krungthai XSpring

NGERN TID LOR - Earnings Recovery Path

The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings with Lower Credit Costs QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the...

Krungthai XSpring

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