Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TIDLOR has announced a planned restructuring of its shareholding and management, which involves establishing a holding company named Tidlor Holdings Public Company Limited (Tidlor Holdings).</li><li>This restructuring entails a tender offer to purchase all shares of TIDLOR from shareholders, with Tidlor Holdings issuing new ordinary shares in exchange for TIDLOR’s existing ordinary shares at a swap ratio of one-to-one.</li><li>Following the tender offer, Tidlor Holdings will replace TIDLOR on the SET, with TIDLOR being delisted on the same day.</li></ul>

TIDLOR has announced a planned restructuring of its shareholding and management, which involves establishing a holding company named Tidlor Holdings Public Company Limited (Tidlor Holdings).This restructuring entails a tender offer to purchase all shares of TIDLOR from shareholders, with Tidlor Holdings issuing new ordinary shares in exchange for TIDLOR’s existing ordinary shares at a swap ratio of one-to-one.Following the tender offer, Tidlor Holdings will replace TIDLOR on the SET, with TIDLOR being delisted on the same day.

Ngern Tid Lor Plc. - TIDLOR Announces Shareholding and Management Restructuring Plans

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.</li><li>The 1Q24E net profit is expected at Bt1,010mn (+5.8% YoY, +12.1% QoQ), while EPS is forecast to decrease 6.0% YoY due to an increase in the number of shares (given the stock dividend in May 2023).</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.The 1Q24E net profit is expected at Bt1,010mn (+5.8% YoY, +12.1% QoQ), while EPS is forecast to decrease 6.0% YoY due to an increase in the number of shares (given the stock dividend in May 2023).

Ngern Tid Lor -1Q24E Net Profit Expected to Grow Both YoY and QoQ

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). 
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)

Ngern Tid Lor Plc. - TIDLOR Announces Shareholding and Management Restructuring Plans

TIDLOR has announced a planned restructuring of its shareholding and management, which involves establishing a holding company named Tidlor...

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor -1Q24E Net Profit Expected to Grow Both YoY and QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

Srisawad is currently an expected DEL. However, the gap between 51st-ranked Srisawad and 50th-ranked Banpu is very small and it is still possible...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Ngern Tid Lor, I-TAIL, and Bangkok Chain Hospital could be added and Com7, Srisawad Corp , and KCE Electronics could be deleted according to the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

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