Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> moved 96mn shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> into CCASS. Tencent shares fell hard. If the share price fell because of a block offering, that would be unwarranted. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19029:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro (086520 KS)</a> is up an eye-watering 590% in the past three months, primarily on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-bm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27873:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro BM (247540 KS)</a>'s outperformance, together with sentiment towards soon-to-be-listed 52.8% held Ecopro Materials. </li>
<li>Japan's Finance Minister said that companies need to improve their PBRs, and that "increasing corporate value of listed companies would allow for Japan to realise sustainable growth."</li>
</ul>



Prosus (PRX NA) moved 96mn shares of Tencent (700 HK) into CCASS. Tencent shares fell hard. If the share price fell because of a block offering, that would be unwarranted. 

Ecopro (086520 KS) is up an eye-watering 590% in the past three months, primarily on Ecopro BM (247540 KS)'s outperformance, together with sentiment towards soon-to-be-listed 52.8% held Ecopro Materials. 
Japan's Finance Minister said that companies need to improve their PBRs, and that "increasing corporate value of listed companies would allow for Japan to realise sustainable growth."


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Singaporean construction firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a> announced a voluntary unconditional cash Offer from the controlling Ong family,</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glory-star-new-media-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33080:1" rel="noopener">Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Singaporean construction firm Lian Beng (LBG SP) announced a voluntary unconditional cash Offer from the controlling Ong family,
Key updates took place for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), and Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liann Beng, Newcrest, OZ Minerals, Glory Star New Media

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> disclosed a revised non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> at 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + US$1.10 special dividend. </li>
<li>Since the 6 February announcement, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$29.14 per share, which is 11.6% higher than the average of the previous offer of A$26.12.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates. Expect a binding proposal. </li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) disclosed a revised non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from Newmont Mining (NEM US) at 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + US$1.10 special dividend. 
Since the 6 February announcement, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$29.14 per share, which is 11.6% higher than the average of the previous offer of A$26.12.
The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates. Expect a binding proposal. 


Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont Returns with a Revised Offer

<ul>
<li>Under the revised proposal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM US)</a> has bumped the all-scrip terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> to 0.400 Newmont shares - from 0.380 - for each Newcrest share held. </li>
<li>Including a permissible franked special dividend of up to US$1.10/share, the revised proposal represents an implied value of A$32.87/share. Newmont indicated the revised bid represents its best and final price.</li>
<li>Newcrest has granted Newmont confirmatory due diligence to put forward a binding proposal.</li>
</ul>


Under the revised proposal, Newmont (NEM US) has bumped the all-scrip terms for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) to 0.400 Newmont shares - from 0.380 - for each Newcrest share held. 
Including a permissible franked special dividend of up to US$1.10/share, the revised proposal represents an implied value of A$32.87/share. Newmont indicated the revised bid represents its best and final price.
Newcrest has granted Newmont confirmatory due diligence to put forward a binding proposal.


<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, GK Goh.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Origin Energy (ORG AU). 
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), GK Goh.


Merger Arb Mondays (10 Apr) - Genesis, Estia, Newcrest, Pushpay, Mincor, Golden Energy, Toyo

Australia

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

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Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liann Beng, Newcrest, OZ Minerals, Glory Star New Media

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett