Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are unlikely to be any inclusions to the index in June while there are three stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of over 4% and a one-way trade of A$78m.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> has been increasing as the stock has dropped and a further decline in the stock could lead to deletion.</li>
</ul>


There are unlikely to be any inclusions to the index in June while there are three stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.
Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of over 4% and a one-way trade of A$78m.
Short interest on AMP Ltd (AMP AU) has been increasing as the stock has dropped and a further decline in the stock could lead to deletion.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Potential Deletes & Capping Changes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> has entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> at 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + US$1.10 special dividend + ordinary dividends (FY2023 dividend of US$0.20).</li>
<li>The proposal is subject to shareholder approval from both sets of shareholders along with regulatory approvals (FIRB, US, Canada, Papua New Guinea).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.  </li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) has entered a SID with Newmont Mining (NEM US) at 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + US$1.10 special dividend + ordinary dividends (FY2023 dividend of US$0.20).
The proposal is subject to shareholder approval from both sets of shareholders along with regulatory approvals (FIRB, US, Canada, Papua New Guinea).
The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.  


Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Binding Offer from Newmont

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 11 April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> bumped the all-scrip terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02652861-3A616301?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">0.400 Newmont shares</a> - from 0.380 - for each Newcrest share held. </li>
<li>Exclusive due diligence was granted and now a firm Offer, by way of a Scheme, has been <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02665703-3A618274?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">agreed</a>.</li>
<li>The Offer permits Newcrest to pay a special franked dividend of up to $US1.10/share on top of the Offer terms. </li>
</ul>


On the 11 April, Newmont Mining (NEM US) bumped the all-scrip terms for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) to 0.400 Newmont shares - from 0.380 - for each Newcrest share held. 
Exclusive due diligence was granted and now a firm Offer, by way of a Scheme, has been agreed.
The Offer permits Newcrest to pay a special franked dividend of up to $US1.10/share on top of the Offer terms. 


<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arteria-networks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27807:1" rel="noopener">ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hailan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39776:1" rel="noopener">Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a>, Arcland Service.
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads  111 Inc (YI US), ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP), Estia Health (EHE AU), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK).
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU),Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Penguin International (PBS SP), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU), Arcland Service.



Merger Arb Mondays (15 May) - SBI Shinsei, Arteria, Toshiba, Yitai, Hailan, Allkem, Lian Beng

<ul>
<li>There are 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem (AKE AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a>'s merger; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yitai-coal-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14904:1" rel="noopener">Yitai Coal (3948 HK)</a>'s H-share buyback; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arteria-networks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27807:1" rel="noopener"> Networks Corp (4423 JP)</a>'s tender offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the Allkem (AKE AU)/Livent (LTHM US)'s merger; Yitai Coal (3948 HK)'s H-share buyback;  Networks Corp (4423 JP)'s tender offer. 
Key updates took place forSt Barbara Ltd (SBM AU), AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Allkem/Livent, Yitai Coal, ARTERIA, St Barbara, AAG Energy

Australia

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

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Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Potential Deletes & Capping Changes

There could be 3 deletions for the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index in June. Capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 4.1% and a one...

Brian Freitas