Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba closed four more supermarkets at the end of February.</li>
<li>Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao.</li>
<li>Li Auto’s deliveries increased by 62% YoY in the first two months of 2024.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba closed four more supermarkets at the end of February.
Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao.
Li Auto’s deliveries increased by 62% YoY in the first two months of 2024.


China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group</a>  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha</a> (ChaPanda) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings</a> (Good me) are said to be looking to raise US$300m each.</li>
<li>All three are primarily focussed on providing freshly-made drinks, including freshly-made fruit drinks, and tea, with some selling ice cream, coffee, baked goods and ready to drink beverages as well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, including the Hong Kong listed peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO, while Sichuan Baicha (ChaPanda) and Guming Holdings (Good me) are said to be looking to raise US$300m each.
All three are primarily focussed on providing freshly-made drinks, including freshly-made fruit drinks, and tea, with some selling ice cream, coffee, baked goods and ready to drink beverages as well.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, including the Hong Kong listed peer, Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK).


MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

<ul>
<li>Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023.</li>
<li>Huawei’s shipments increased 36% YoY in 4Q23 and was the only company to witness an increase among the top five sellers.</li>
<li>Jack Ma, the founder, and Mr. Joe Tsai, the chairman, purchased Alibaba’s shares.</li>
</ul>


Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023.
Huawei’s shipments increased 36% YoY in 4Q23 and was the only company to witness an increase among the top five sellers.
Jack Ma, the founder, and Mr. Joe Tsai, the chairman, purchased Alibaba’s shares.


China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Guming generates revenue mainly from the sales of goods/equipment to its franchisees (or ToB business). So, Guming’s future growth depends significantly on its ability to operate and expand store network.</li>
<li>China’s freshly-made beverage market is highly competitive. Guming is unlikely to catch up with MIXUE, but Guming will be overtaken by the rest players if it fails to compete effectively.</li>
<li>Due to Guming’s business model, investors're hard to see the real picture of Guming solely based on its revenue/profits. Guming’s valuation should be higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki </a>but lower than MIXUE.</li>
</ul>


Guming generates revenue mainly from the sales of goods/equipment to its franchisees (or ToB business). So, Guming’s future growth depends significantly on its ability to operate and expand store network.
China’s freshly-made beverage market is highly competitive. Guming is unlikely to catch up with MIXUE, but Guming will be overtaken by the rest players if it fails to compete effectively.
Due to Guming’s business model, investors're hard to see the real picture of Guming solely based on its revenue/profits. Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki but lower than MIXUE.


Pre-IPO Guming Holdings - The Current Market Position Is Not Secure

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent

Hong Kong

Nayuki Holdings Limited operates as a holding compnay. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and retails tea and bakery products. Nayuki serves customers in China.

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Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)

China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop

Alibaba closed four supermarkets at the end of February. Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao. Li Auto’s deliveries...

Ming Lu

MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

Mixue is looking to raise about US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO, while ChaPanda and Good me)are said to be looking to raise US$300m each. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023. Huawei shipment increased by 36% YoY in 4Q23. The...

Ming Lu

Pre-IPO Guming Holdings - The Current Market Position Is Not Secure

In the context of rapid growth in freshly-made tea beverage market, Guming has performed well. However, due to fierce competition and disadvantages...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent

Highlight: We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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