HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>If based on the market value of HK$20.246 billion to HK$23.185 billion in this IPO, a single store market value is about HK$2-2.4 million, higher than that of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Baicha Baidao</a>.</li>
<li>Our forecast of 2024 net profit is RMB1.4 billion. Based on IPO price range of HK$8.68-9.94 per share, P/E is about 13.5-15.5x. There is still some upside room for valuation.</li>
<li>Investors may need more “safety margins” on valuation due to the pressure of performance growth after IPO.The higher the IPO price, the greater the risk of future valuation downward revisions.</li>
</ul>


If based on the market value of HK$20.246 billion to HK$23.185 billion in this IPO, a single store market value is about HK$2-2.4 million, higher than that of Baicha Baidao.
Our forecast of 2024 net profit is RMB1.4 billion. Based on IPO price range of HK$8.68-9.94 per share, P/E is about 13.5-15.5x. There is still some upside room for valuation.
Investors may need more “safety margins” on valuation due to the pressure of performance growth after IPO.The higher the IPO price, the greater the risk of future valuation downward revisions.


Pre-IPO Guming Holdings - Thoughts on Valuation

Equity Analyst, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> 's shares closed 7% below issue price by end of yesterday's trading. </li>
<li>Institutional investors may be cautious, with many likely waiting for the upcoming IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>, widely viewed as a more attractive and bigger opportunity in tea space.</li>
<li>The upcoming Mixue IPO—aiming to raise about USD500 million—could spark broader investor interest in the sector and may boost valuations for Guming given its relative operational strengths.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (1364 HK) 's shares closed 7% below issue price by end of yesterday's trading. 
Institutional investors may be cautious, with many likely waiting for the upcoming IPO of Mixue Group (MIX HK), widely viewed as a more attractive and bigger opportunity in tea space.
The upcoming Mixue IPO—aiming to raise about USD500 million—could spark broader investor interest in the sector and may boost valuations for Guming given its relative operational strengths.


Guming Holdings (1364 HK): Potential Valuation Upside with Upcoming Mixue IPO

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.</li>
<li>Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Guming Holdings IPO Trading - Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings</a>, the leading mid-priced milk tea player in China, has priced its IPO at the top-end and upsized it to 182.6 mn shares, raising a total of HKD1.8 Bn. </li>
<li>With strong HK retail investor demand, International investors bidding for Guming stock in the IPO had their allocations scaled back to 56.5% from 90% earlier.</li>
<li>Guming will list at the HK stock exchange today and could likely see a good  uptick upon listing given robust investor demand.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings, the leading mid-priced milk tea player in China, has priced its IPO at the top-end and upsized it to 182.6 mn shares, raising a total of HKD1.8 Bn. 
With strong HK retail investor demand, International investors bidding for Guming stock in the IPO had their allocations scaled back to 56.5% from 90% earlier.
Guming will list at the HK stock exchange today and could likely see a good  uptick upon listing given robust investor demand.


Guming (1364 HK): Upsized at Top-Price. Strong Retail Demand

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> is forecasted to initially fail the fcap threshold for both global indices due to an IPO free float of ~6%.</li>
<li>The security is expected to be added at the global index's March 2026 review as the lock-up expiry's fcap increase becomes effective post September 2025 cut-off date.</li>
<li>The security will be eligible for the other global index at the May 2026 review following the 12-month lock-up expiry of the undisclosed shareholders.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (1364 HK) is forecasted to initially fail the fcap threshold for both global indices due to an IPO free float of ~6%.
The security is expected to be added at the global index's March 2026 review as the lock-up expiry's fcap increase becomes effective post September 2025 cut-off date.
The security will be eligible for the other global index at the May 2026 review following the 12-month lock-up expiry of the undisclosed shareholders.


Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon

China

Gum Holding Ltd is headquartered in China. The Company's line of business includes investing in commodity contracts, tax liens, venture capital companies, and other miscellaneous investing.

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Guming Holdings (1364 HK)

Pre-IPO Guming Holdings - Thoughts on Valuation

The IPO pricing of HK$9.94 is "aggressive" as upside may be limited due to the pressure of performance growth after IPO. The higher the IPO price,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang