China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>3690.HK: Meituan food delivery drivers in Shanwei go on strike over low wages (-)</li>
<li>2150HK: Lelecha confirm to launch franchise model, targeting at Mid and South-west China(+)</li>
<li>700 HK / TME : WeChat tests in-app music function(+)</li>
</ul>


3690.HK: Meituan food delivery drivers in Shanwei go on strike over low wages (-)
2150HK: Lelecha confirm to launch franchise model, targeting at Mid and South-west China(+)
700 HK / TME : WeChat tests in-app music function(+)


China TMT Update(Apr.25) - 3690.HK/2150.HK/700.HK/TME: Meituan Riders in Shanwei Go on Strike

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nayuki reported C2H22 top line 0.9% below our estimate but 18% below consensus，due to deteriorating cost ratios; </li>
<li>Company chose to drastically expand store count by ~600 in 2023. Our concern is that Nayuki stores now are drastically different from its past.</li>
<li>The company is abandoning its premium teahouse position, which begets unknown consequences in our opinion; We keep the TP unchanged at HK 3.1 and maintain SELL.</li>
</ul>


Nayuki reported C2H22 top line 0.9% below our estimate but 18% below consensus，due to deteriorating cost ratios; 
Company chose to drastically expand store count by ~600 in 2023. Our concern is that Nayuki stores now are drastically different from its past.
The company is abandoning its premium teahouse position, which begets unknown consequences in our opinion; We keep the TP unchanged at HK 3.1 and maintain SELL.


[Nayuki Holding (2150 HK) Target Price Change]: Business Model Change Has Risky Consequence

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 24th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate that the total inflows were USD3.3bn last week and highlight flows for Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 24th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate that the total inflows were USD3.3bn last week and highlight flows for Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 24th): Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili

<ul>
<li>Even though we are long-term optimistic on the rise of Chinese consumer brands, we believe short-term optimism is misplaced. </li>
<li>Two themes: (1) structural changes led by China’s transition to an older and more affluent society, (2) substitution and globalization that can break the ceiling for valuation;</li>
<li>Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour, Luckin, FUTU, BEKE and Miniso</li>
</ul>


Even though we are long-term optimistic on the rise of Chinese consumer brands, we believe short-term optimism is misplaced. 
Two themes: (1) structural changes led by China’s transition to an older and more affluent society, (2) substitution and globalization that can break the ceiling for valuation;
Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour, Luckin, FUTU, BEKE and Miniso


[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a> has disclosed a delisting tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> at THB59.00 per share, a 26.9% premium to the undisturbed price (10 March).</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and &lt;10% rejection by total outstanding shares. ThaiBev can vote at the EGM.</li>
<li>The offer price is reasonable and timing is the key risk. The delisting EGM will be held on 3 May. The offer must be open for 45 business days.</li>
</ul>



Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) has disclosed a delisting tender offer from Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) at THB59.00 per share, a 26.9% premium to the undisturbed price (10 March).
The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and &lt;10% rejection by total outstanding shares. ThaiBev can vote at the EGM.
The offer price is reasonable and timing is the key risk. The delisting EGM will be held on 3 May. The offer must be open for 45 business days.


Oishi Group (OISHI TB): ThaiBev’s Delisting Tender Offer at THB59.00

Hong Kong

Regal Hotels International Holdings Limited owns and operates hotels.  The Company also manages and invests in real estate properties as well as invests in and trades financial instruments and marketable securities.  In addition, Regal hotel operates brewery, operates restaurants, and provides travel and florist and wedding services.

Cafe De Coral Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates quick service restaurants, fast casual dining, institutional catering and specialty restaurant chains, and food manufacturing business.

Fosun Tourism Group operates as a leisure focused integrated tourism group. The Company provides resorts management, tourism destinations development, and other related services. Fosun Tourism Group offers its services worldwide.

Sino Hotels Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates hotels and clubs.  The Company also invests in securities and provides hotel management services.

China Star Entertainment Limited, through its subsidiaries, principally engaged in the production and distribution of films and television drama series that are based in Chinese dialect. The Company also invests the gaming promotion business, property and hotel investments.

Fairwood Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of fast food restaurants.  The Company also invests in properties.

Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited operates a chain of casual restaurants that offers Japanese ramen and Japanese-style dishes in Hong Kong and People's Republic of China.

China Energy Development Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the sale of food and beverages in Hong Kong and exploration and production of natural gas in the People's Republic of China (PRC).

China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (228 HK)

Paradise Entertainment Limited is the holding company of a diverse group of companies that engages in casino management, and development, supply and leasing of game machinery and equipment.

Paliburg Holdings Limited owns and manages hotels.  The Company also invests in, manages and develops properties and provides development consultancy, project management, and construction services.  The Company also invests in and trades financial instruments and marketable securities as well as operates brewery.

Hotel Grand Central Limited owns, operates, and manages hotels. The Company also collects rent, develops properties, and provides marketing and support services.

Berjaya Sports Toto Berhad is an investment holding company. The Company through its subsidiaries, operates a non-four-digit betting games, leases computerized lottery equipment, manufactures and distributes computerized lottery systems, and develops property.

Stamford Land Corporation Limited is an investment holding company.  The Company owns and manages hotels and travel agencies.  Stamford Land Corporation also develops and invests in properties.

GENKI SUSHI CO., LTD. operates revolving sushi bar chain "Genki Sushi", "Sushi Ondo", and "Senryo" in the Kanto area.  The Company also operates in the Tohoku area.

Magnum Berhad is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiary, focuses on the gaming or numbers forecasting lottery business.

Delta Corp Limited a diversified business group having a presence in the entertainment and gaming, real estate business in India and Kenya. The Company's business includes offshore casinos, and real estate consulting & development.

Centurion Corporation Limited owns, develops and manages quality, purpose-built workers accommodation assets in Singapore and Malaysia, and purpose-built student accommodation assets in Singapore, Australia, the United Kingdom (“UK”), the United States (“US”) and South Korea.

Huatian Hotel Group Co., Ltd. operates a five-star hotel in Changsha, Hunan. The Company also provides related food, entertainment, and other services. Through its subsidiaries, Hunan Huatian develops computer software.

Xi'an Tourism Co., Ltd. operates hotels, providing lodging, catering, and travel services.  The Company also operates in petroleum exploration and extraction businesses.

Berjaya Land Berhad is an investment holding company which provides management services. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates betting, leases computerized lottery equipment, manufactures and distributes computerized lottery systems. Berjaya Land also develops and invests in properties, operates hotels, resorts, and casinos.

Nayuki Holdings Limited operates as a holding compnay. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and retails tea and bakery products. Nayuki serves customers in China.

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Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)

China TMT Update(Apr.25) - 3690.HK/2150.HK/700.HK/TME: Meituan Riders in Shanwei Go on Strike

3690.HK: Meituan food delivery drivers in Shanwei go on strike (-); 2150HK: Lelecha confirm to launch franchise model (+); 700HK/TME: WeChat tests...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Nayuki Holding (2150 HK) Target Price Change]: Business Model Change Has Risky Consequence

Company chose to drastically expand store count by ~600 in 2023. Our concern is that Nayuki stores now are drastically different from its past. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 24th): Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent (700 HK), and Bilibili (9626 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

Chinese underconsumption is only half true. It only occurs in categories associated with development stages; Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Oishi Group (OISHI TB): ThaiBev’s Delisting Tender Offer at THB59.00

The offer price is reasonable and timing is the key risk. The delisting EGM will be held on 3 May. The offer must be open for 45 business days.

Arun George

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