Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

Our base case called for buying risk on the January 4 dip into mid-January that sets up a peak in the risk cycle with a USD low front running this cycle as the SPX put the final touches on the topside of the rising wedge. Short call just above SPX 3,800.A mid-January risk peak to induce a decline that may surprise markets into late January/early February that sets up a fresh long entry point. Gold has reacted to the USD and now see oil peaking along followed by an equity inflection.NDX exhibits a more compelling top given the contracting rising wedge and mature divergence.

Our base case called for buying risk on the January 4 dip into mid-January that sets up a peak in the risk cycle with a USD low front running this cycle as the SPX put the final touches on the topside of the rising wedge. Short call just above SPX 3,800.A mid-January risk peak to induce a decline that may surprise markets into late January/early February that sets up a fresh long entry point. Gold has reacted to the USD and now see oil peaking along followed by an equity inflection.NDX exhibits a more compelling top given the contracting rising wedge and mature divergence.

The call to buy risk on the January 4 draw down has panned out. SPX sub 3,700 long now meeting the 3,800 objective representing the topside of the rising wedge. We also touted buying the Nikkei at 27,000. Keep in mind that rising wedge formations have a 70% probability of breaking lower. Our cycle works turns negative mid Jan into late Jan for a pullback that sets up a very nice long entry for a February rally. The next risk cycle would come in late February.

The call to buy risk on the January 4 draw down has panned out. SPX sub 3,700 long now meeting the 3,800 objective representing the topside of the rising wedge. We also touted buying the Nikkei at 27,000. Keep in mind that rising wedge formations have a 70% probability of breaking lower. Our cycle works turns negative mid Jan into late Jan for a pullback that sets up a very nice long entry for a February rally. The next risk cycle would come in late February.

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.

US bull energy remains well supported on dips and will lend support to the impulsive bull breakouts in Asia.Bull triangles are macro bullish for new chart highs. Will be measuring pullback energy within pattern ranges. Only the NDX shows a weaker lead bias to test the mid triangle range.SPX – Call for a pullback/rally stall from 3,600+ to test the resolve of 3,500 support (NDX below pattern resistance a correlation warning). Below 3,500 targets 3,420. Holding 3,500-10 is viewed as bullish for a new rally cycle.NDX flirting with the 12.1k breakout point. Fading from this triangle barrier has buy points at 11,600 (met) and 11,400. We like buying any move back within the triangle range.Stimulus expectations remain the core driver for risk as well as a weaker USD. We are alert to near term risks that would provide a buying opportunity - Extended bull sentiment, vaccine rollout wrinkles, and rising case counts/shutdowns.

US bull energy remains well supported on dips and will lend support to the impulsive bull breakouts in Asia.Bull triangles are macro bullish for new chart highs. Will be measuring pullback energy within pattern ranges. Only the NDX shows a weaker lead bias to test the mid triangle range.SPX – Call for a pullback/rally stall from 3,600+ to test the resolve of 3,500 support (NDX below pattern resistance a correlation warning). Below 3,500 targets 3,420. Holding 3,500-10 is viewed as bullish for a new rally cycle.NDX flirting with the 12.1k breakout point. Fading from this triangle barrier has buy points at 11,600 (met) and 11,400. We like buying any move back within the triangle range.Stimulus expectations remain the core driver for risk as well as a weaker USD. We are alert to near term risks that would provide a buying opportunity - Extended bull sentiment, vaccine rollout wrinkles, and rising case counts/shutdowns.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

A short while ago, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201116-1258362/1258362_tdec215addconsult.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> effective after the close of trading on 18 December. The deletion will be announced later.S&amp;P DJI have also announced they will be conducting a <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/governance/consultations/sp500consultationonimplementationoftslaaddition11-16-20.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">market consultation</a> on whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> should be added to the S&amp;P500 all at once or in two tranches to reduce the impact of the funding trade.From the numbers, the market should be able to absorb the buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and the selling on the other index constituents pretty easily. However, with Christmas just a week away from the implementation date and possibly lower liquidity, market participants may have different views and the trade could be split into two tranches.

A short while ago, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced the inclusion of Tesla Motors (TSLA US) in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) effective after the close of trading on 18 December. The deletion will be announced later.S&amp;P DJI have also announced they will be conducting a market consultation on whether Tesla Motors (TSLA US) should be added to the S&amp;P500 all at once or in two tranches to reduce the impact of the funding trade.From the numbers, the market should be able to absorb the buying on Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and the selling on the other index constituents pretty easily. However, with Christmas just a week away from the implementation date and possibly lower liquidity, market participants may have different views and the trade could be split into two tranches.

Tesla: S&P500 Inclusion (Finally) Secured

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Short Risk Call at Top of SPX Wedge

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US Cycle January Event Risk

The call to buy risk on the January 4 draw down has panned out. SPX long meeting the 3,800 objective representing the topside of the rising wedge -...

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Mid December Equity Peak

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with some tailwinds for the US into the next key cycle timeline. USD near a cycle low expected...

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Buy SPX Dips for New Highs

US bull energy remains well supported on dips and will lend support to the impulsive bull breakouts in Asia. Bull triangles are macro bullish for...

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Tesla: S&P500 Inclusion (Finally) Secured

Tesla has been included in the S&P500 after 5 consecutive quarters of profitability. The passive buying on Tesla will be around US$54bn and the...

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