Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>Given high conviction bear pattern breakdowns in Europe and Asia, we are assuming the US cycle has more downside per our cycle timeline toward October 19. Core shorts are in SPX and RTY. DJI is a fresh underperform and short candidate on a bounce.</p><p>Europe's impulsive break down out of bear triangulation patterns is in line with our short call from Eurostoxx 50 3,400. Euro banks leading the route with the periphery in pursuit.</p><p>In Asia, we were short for breakdowns in Korea, Taiwan and HK. Japan is just starting to see the macro cycle peak and turn south. Singapore, Malaysia have been high conviction shorts and now we are seeing the stronger horses break down.</p><p>Fresh sell levels are outlined in Asia with primary downside targets.</p>

Given high conviction bear pattern breakdowns in Europe and Asia, we are assuming the US cycle has more downside per our cycle timeline toward October 19. Core shorts are in SPX and RTY. DJI is a fresh underperform and short candidate on a bounce.Europe's impulsive break down out of bear triangulation patterns is in line with our short call from Eurostoxx 50 3,400. Euro banks leading the route with the periphery in pursuit.In Asia, we were short for breakdowns in Korea, Taiwan and HK. Japan is just starting to see the macro cycle peak and turn south. Singapore, Malaysia have been high conviction shorts and now we are seeing the stronger horses break down.Fresh sell levels are outlined in Asia with primary downside targets.

US Downside Targets with European and Asia Breakdowns

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<p>Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.</p>

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Our tactical bet for the NDX and SPX touted a long from NDX 11k and SPX 3,320 for a rise to test 11,500 and 3,400 resistances and DJI 28,200.</p><div>Rally on the FOMC statement is expected to fade and we like shorting SPX and RTY strength if the rally fails to impress near SPX 3,435 with outlined support at 3,350. RTY is our core underperform short pair with resistance at 1,570 as the short level.</div><div></div><div>Daily RSI resistance levels and the underside of broken trendline are the focus levels to align.</div><div></div><p><strong>Daily MACD's show a wide mouth (spread) that needs to narrow </strong>or close and supports a reaction rise. Noted RSI resistance points to align with price levels.</p>

Our tactical bet for the NDX and SPX touted a long from NDX 11k and SPX 3,320 for a rise to test 11,500 and 3,400 resistances and DJI 28,200.Rally on the FOMC statement is expected to fade and we like shorting SPX and RTY strength if the rally fails to impress near SPX 3,435 with outlined support at 3,350. RTY is our core underperform short pair with resistance at 1,570 as the short level.Daily RSI resistance levels and the underside of broken trendline are the focus levels to align.Daily MACD's show a wide mouth (spread) that needs to narrow or close and supports a reaction rise. Noted RSI resistance points to align with price levels.

NDX and SPX Underside of Broken Trendline Pivots

<p>US daily RSI spike risk still from the 40 area. Rally bet from 3,320 met 3,400-40 target zone but secondary push failed. Flat range risk of breaking down after rally failed at underside of trendline.</p><p>DJI 27k and NDX 10,900 pivots to hold or break as lead action points. We are trading a tactical bounce from just above these supports to test the trendline break point.</p><p>If NDX breaks below 10,900 after failing to re take broken trendline support, it will take the SPX and global cycle with it.</p><p>SPX weekly cycle illustrates some macro concerns with a weekly bear reversal set up and MACD turn down from key resistance. Macro pivot lies at 3,220. Ideal short zone on a bounce near 3,400+ where we faded.</p>

US daily RSI spike risk still from the 40 area. Rally bet from 3,320 met 3,400-40 target zone but secondary push failed. Flat range risk of breaking down after rally failed at underside of trendline.DJI 27k and NDX 10,900 pivots to hold or break as lead action points. We are trading a tactical bounce from just above these supports to test the trendline break point.If NDX breaks below 10,900 after failing to re take broken trendline support, it will take the SPX and global cycle with it.SPX weekly cycle illustrates some macro concerns with a weekly bear reversal set up and MACD turn down from key resistance. Macro pivot lies at 3,220. Ideal short zone on a bounce near 3,400+ where we faded.

<div>As RSI's in the US pullback from overbought territory and move into buy territory, the favored trade is to buy weakness for a reaction rise. Poor bull energy on a secondary rally attempt is vital in confirming a bigger cycle peak or wave 2 top. September/October months vulnerable is a recovery fizzles and we then convincingly break below pivotal trendline supports at NDX 11,300 and SPX 3,440. A top below 3,530 would set up a harder decline. Clearing 3,530 is the level that would try for a new high or re test of 3,586 with projection at 3,600 and 3,650.</div><div></div><div>Macro: Views this pullback as corrective barring a more impulsive follow through decline below 3,300 and 3,220.</div><div></div><div>Trade points are outlined on the long and short side with the DJI a favored long and the Russell 2000 remaining an underperform short. Given a bit more tech fallout we want are a buyer of the NDX as long as 11,000 holds bear pressure.</div>

As RSI's in the US pullback from overbought territory and move into buy territory, the favored trade is to buy weakness for a reaction rise. Poor bull energy on a secondary rally attempt is vital in confirming a bigger cycle peak or wave 2 top. September/October months vulnerable is a recovery fizzles and we then convincingly break below pivotal trendline supports at NDX 11,300 and SPX 3,440. A top below 3,530 would set up a harder decline. Clearing 3,530 is the level that would try for a new high or re test of 3,586 with projection at 3,600 and 3,650.Macro: Views this pullback as corrective barring a more impulsive follow through decline below 3,300 and 3,220.Trade points are outlined on the long and short side with the DJI a favored long and the Russell 2000 remaining an underperform short. Given a bit more tech fallout we want are a buyer of the NDX as long as 11,000 holds bear pressure.

SPX and NDX Long Short Levels and Sector Bets

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

US Downside Targets with European and Asia Breakdowns

Given high conviction bear pattern breakdowns in Europe and Asia, we are assuming the US cycle has more downside per our cycle. Core shorts are in...

Thomas Schroeder

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially...

Vermilion Research

NDX and SPX Underside of Broken Trendline Pivots

Our tactical bet for the NDX and SPX touted a long from NDX 11k and SPX 3,320 for a rise to test 11,500 and 3,400 resistances and DJI 28,200. Rally...

Thomas Schroeder

SPX and NDX Trendline Breach Test

US daily RSI spike risk still from the 40 area. Rally bet from 3,320 met 3,400-40 target zone but secondary push failed. Flat range risk of...

Thomas Schroeder

SPX and NDX Long Short Levels and Sector Bets

As RSI's in the US pullback from overbought territory and move into buy territory, the favored trade is to buy weakness for a reaction rise. Poor...

Thomas Schroeder