Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>In last week’s <em>Compass</em> we posited that the bulls were back in control as the bullish gap from Sept. 28 was left unfilled despite the president and first lady getting COVID-19. With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclical areas of the market breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials &amp; Manufacturing: Metals, Steel Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals, Petro/Basic/Commodity, Cement/Aggregates, and Agricultural Equipment.</p>

In last week’s Compass we posited that the bulls were back in control as the bullish gap from Sept. 28 was left unfilled despite the president and first lady getting COVID-19. With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclical areas of the market breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials &amp; Manufacturing: Metals, Steel Integrated, U.S., Specialty Chemicals, Petro/Basic/Commodity, Cement/Aggregates, and Agricultural Equipment.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Dips

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Our base case called for tactical short attempt at SPX 3,400 for a fade to buy October weakness. The break above SPX 3,420 hit our stop and reverse trigger to turn long with a focus on buying the DJI and NDX as the trailing long  plays.</p><p>Global risk is tied to SPX 3,420 holding a downside pressure test this week with fade resistance at 3,500 and must hold support at 3,420. Below 3,420 would reinstate a hedge. </p><p>We do see tough resistance levels in Europe and Asia and the reluctance to rally in tandem with the US. This questions how long the SPX can stay above 3,420 and makes this level all the more important. Near term we see a short trade in Asia and Europe on the fade from SPX 3,500 but if 3,420 holds a pressure test we need to build long exposure in Asia (Europe we are more bearish outside of the DAX long zone near 12,500).</p><p>SPX 3,240 and NDX 11,600 key risk pivots and bull/bear lines.</p>

Our base case called for tactical short attempt at SPX 3,400 for a fade to buy October weakness. The break above SPX 3,420 hit our stop and reverse trigger to turn long with a focus on buying the DJI and NDX as the trailing long  plays.Global risk is tied to SPX 3,420 holding a downside pressure test this week with fade resistance at 3,500 and must hold support at 3,420. Below 3,420 would reinstate a hedge. We do see tough resistance levels in Europe and Asia and the reluctance to rally in tandem with the US. This questions how long the SPX can stay above 3,420 and makes this level all the more important. Near term we see a short trade in Asia and Europe on the fade from SPX 3,500 but if 3,420 holds a pressure test we need to build long exposure in Asia (Europe we are more bearish outside of the DAX long zone near 12,500).SPX 3,240 and NDX 11,600 key risk pivots and bull/bear lines.

<p>SPX was primed for a correction from just under 3,400 resistance with a short zone at 3,360-90 (below 3,400) as outlined in the update yesterday and the insight issued on September 29 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spx-and-ndx-trade-levels" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43699" rel="noopener">SPX and NDX Trade Levels</a> . NDX has outperformed but did back off of key resistance at 11,566 (old highs and top of range). Today's fade below 11,500 sets up pressure to re test 10,900 pivot support.</p><p>Trump testing positive is simply the catalyst for a cycle that is primed for a cycle down turn.</p><p><strong>Cycle timeline:</strong> Call for a peak within September 29 to October 1st, ahead of a decline cycle into October 19th if not shifting toward early November.</p><p>Today is set for some fireworks once the US session opens. Watch pivot supports.</p>

SPX was primed for a correction from just under 3,400 resistance with a short zone at 3,360-90 (below 3,400) as outlined in the update yesterday and the insight issued on September 29 SPX and NDX Trade Levels . NDX has outperformed but did back off of key resistance at 11,566 (old highs and top of range). Today's fade below 11,500 sets up pressure to re test 10,900 pivot support.Trump testing positive is simply the catalyst for a cycle that is primed for a cycle down turn.Cycle timeline: Call for a peak within September 29 to October 1st, ahead of a decline cycle into October 19th if not shifting toward early November.Today is set for some fireworks once the US session opens. Watch pivot supports.

SPX Downside Support Today on Trump Test and into Mid October Down Cycle Bet

<p>mportant price support levels previously highlighted have held strong, including the 3200-3230 level on the S&amp;P 500, 10,855 on the Nasdaq 100, and $145/the 200-day MA on the Russell 2000 (IWM). Additionally, both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are breaking out from their bullish falling wedge patterns that have been taking shape since the early-September highs. These bullish inflections are encouraging and, combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy, lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are likely in.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Solar Energy, Fuel Cells/Lithium Batteries, and Software, Customer Relationship Mgt.</p>

mportant price support levels previously highlighted have held strong, including the 3200-3230 level on the S&amp;P 500, 10,855 on the Nasdaq 100, and $145/the 200-day MA on the Russell 2000 (IWM). Additionally, both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are breaking out from their bullish falling wedge patterns that have been taking shape since the early-September highs. These bullish inflections are encouraging and, combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy, lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are likely in.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Solar Energy, Fuel Cells/Lithium Batteries, and Software, Customer Relationship Mgt.

<div>Trade higher from SPX 3,220 is meeting SPX 3,350 and NDX 11,400 targets. We are entering a more vulnerable cycle after September 29 but realize we may see month end window dressing that could stretch into later this week.</div><div></div><div>Cycle timeline: September 29 to October 19 a more negative period with risk into early November.</div><div></div><div>Weekly cycle exhibits a more fragile bounce and fade sequence.</div><div></div><div>Europe and Asia show more bearish pattern set ups on a bounce into month end and the favored spaces to build short exposure. USD bias is for a dip and rally that will pressure Asia and EM's leaving the US in a good position to perform.</div>

Trade higher from SPX 3,220 is meeting SPX 3,350 and NDX 11,400 targets. We are entering a more vulnerable cycle after September 29 but realize we may see month end window dressing that could stretch into later this week.Cycle timeline: September 29 to October 19 a more negative period with risk into early November.Weekly cycle exhibits a more fragile bounce and fade sequence.Europe and Asia show more bearish pattern set ups on a bounce into month end and the favored spaces to build short exposure. USD bias is for a dip and rally that will pressure Asia and EM's leaving the US in a good position to perform.

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Dips

With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclicals breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip”...

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Risk on Above SPX 3,420/NDX 11,600

Our base case called for tactical short attempt at SPX 3,400 for a fade to buy October weakness. The break above SPX 3,420 hit our stop and reverse...

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SPX Downside Support Today on Trump Test and into Mid October Down Cycle Bet

SPX was primed for a correction from just under 3,400 resistance with a short zone at 3,360-90 (below 3,400). NDX has outperformed but did back off...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Correction Over?

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary & Technology: CD-24 Casinos & Gaming, Small-Cap,...

Vermilion Research

SPX and NDX Trade Levels

Trade higher from SPX 3,220 is meeting SPX 3,350 and NDX 11,400 targets. We are entering a more vulnerable cycle after September 29 but realize we...

Thomas Schroeder