Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.


S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Russell and NDX are knocking on resistance levels that have capped previous rally attempts as we enter the early August cycle timeline.</li>
<li>Tech rally reacting to backward earnings. E's will buckle into a recession. The July risk on rally cycle is closing.</li>
<li>NDX 13k and RTY 1,930 are key inflection levels that will drive the global risk cycle ahead of a more turbulent late August to October period.</li>
</ul>


Russell and NDX are knocking on resistance levels that have capped previous rally attempts as we enter the early August cycle timeline.
Tech rally reacting to backward earnings. E's will buckle into a recession. The July risk on rally cycle is closing.
NDX 13k and RTY 1,930 are key inflection levels that will drive the global risk cycle ahead of a more turbulent late August to October period.


Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As we prepare for the FOMC there are patterns to watch beyond the short term</li>
<li>The risk of lower yields still persists, especially given the curve inversion</li>
<li>As a consequence we are likely to see further gains in US equities</li>
</ul>


As we prepare for the FOMC there are patterns to watch beyond the short term
The risk of lower yields still persists, especially given the curve inversion
As a consequence we are likely to see further gains in US equities


<ul>
<li>SPX met the 4,000/20 summer rally target (long from 3,700) with a dip/rally sequence into early August to complete the topping process.</li>
<li>Transitioning from risk on to risk off while finessing the SPX 3,900 pivot support that will define market energy in early August and the macro risk tone.</li>
<li>NDX remains our favored short (aligned with SPX 4,000) and in early August. RTY long from 1,650 met our rally objective at 1,820+.</li>
</ul>


SPX met the 4,000/20 summer rally target (long from 3,700) with a dip/rally sequence into early August to complete the topping process.
Transitioning from risk on to risk off while finessing the SPX 3,900 pivot support that will define market energy in early August and the macro risk tone.
NDX remains our favored short (aligned with SPX 4,000) and in early August. RTY long from 1,650 met our rally objective at 1,820+.


<ul>
<li>Is the inflation ship turning? Price action in markets warrants this question</li>
<li>The clearest breaks have been in US stocks which should still rally</li>
<li>Bonds may be the next to move - it is the central market to watch</li>
</ul>


Is the inflation ship turning? Price action in markets warrants this question
The clearest breaks have been in US stocks which should still rally
Bonds may be the next to move - it is the central market to watch


United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

We continue to see more evidence suggesting the lows are in; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. 4-month downtrend reversal for...

Vermilion Research

Defining US Risk Inflection

Russell and NDX are knocking on resistance levels that have capped previous rally attempts as we enter the early August cycle timeline. Tech rally...

Thomas Schroeder

"V" For ? Thoughts on Central Banks

Market reactions to the ECB are clear, they are going the opposite way of what policy makers intended. As we prepare for the Fed, some medium term...

Shyam Devani

THE SPX Summer Top/Short Sequence

SPX met the 4,000/20 summer rally target (long from 3,700) with a dip/rally sequence into early August to complete the topping process (C wave...

Thomas Schroeder

Cross Markets: Is the Ship Turning?

The inverted curve in the US should NEVER be ignored. Latest indications point to further gains in bonds as well as ongoing gains in equities....

Shyam Devani