Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Fed bounce used to add to NDX short at 12,100. RTY break below 1,775 is the more damning inflection pivot to see bear momentum accelerate in our short group.</li>
<li>RTY below 1,775 targets 1,710 and 1,690. NDX increased bear pressure to crack 11,500/400 support and reach for that key 11k macro support level.</li>
<li>SPX 3,750 pressure test. RTY implies we crack 3,750 and reach for the June low. 3,500 is our new low PT then bull probe in late September/early October.</li>
</ul>


Fed bounce used to add to NDX short at 12,100. RTY break below 1,775 is the more damning inflection pivot to see bear momentum accelerate in our short group.
RTY below 1,775 targets 1,710 and 1,690. NDX increased bear pressure to crack 11,500/400 support and reach for that key 11k macro support level.
SPX 3,750 pressure test. RTY implies we crack 3,750 and reach for the June low. 3,500 is our new low PT then bull probe in late September/early October.


<ul>
<li>NDX, DAX, Asia short levels met ahead of the CPI print. Today's insight focuses on near resistance points to sell into after the conviction bear turn and reiterates downside targets.</li>
<li>Game plan was to short strength Monday/Tuesday and used pivot support/trailing stops to unwind some long exposure.</li>
<li>Call to buy the USD on this pullback at DXY 108 worked well with a focus on Euro, ZAR, and weaker Asian FX.</li>
</ul>


NDX, DAX, Asia short levels met ahead of the CPI print. Today's insight focuses on near resistance points to sell into after the conviction bear turn and reiterates downside targets.
Game plan was to short strength Monday/Tuesday and used pivot support/trailing stops to unwind some long exposure.
Call to buy the USD on this pullback at DXY 108 worked well with a focus on Euro, ZAR, and weaker Asian FX.


<ul>
<li>US bounce in line off of SPX 3,900 support. Index trendline resistances will offer fresh sell points with NDX our top short pick in the US.</li>
<li>RTY was our long pick off of 1,775 support, to trade a bounce toward trendline and will then turn bearish again.</li>
<li>NDX 12,500 zone the fresh short area. DAX and weaker Asia still a high conviction short group.</li>
</ul>


US bounce in line off of SPX 3,900 support. Index trendline resistances will offer fresh sell points with NDX our top short pick in the US.
RTY was our long pick off of 1,775 support, to trade a bounce toward trendline and will then turn bearish again.
NDX 12,500 zone the fresh short area. DAX and weaker Asia still a high conviction short group.


<ul>
<li>The impulsive decline in growth sectors (NDX) warns of more pain in September. Sell resistance lies at 12,500/800 below the 13k risk pivot. NDX early August relative peak led.</li>
<li>SPX macro sell call on August 19 worked well with a short NDX focus (short group includes DAX, HSI, Taiwan and recently Korea).</li>
<li>August was touted as the month to sell longs establish in June/July and to raise short bets for a bearish September as pundits turned bullish in mid-August, we were selling.</li>
</ul>


The impulsive decline in growth sectors (NDX) warns of more pain in September. Sell resistance lies at 12,500/800 below the 13k risk pivot. NDX early August relative peak led.
SPX macro sell call on August 19 worked well with a short NDX focus (short group includes DAX, HSI, Taiwan and recently Korea).
August was touted as the month to sell longs establish in June/July and to raise short bets for a bearish September as pundits turned bullish in mid-August, we were selling.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
<li>This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.</li>
<li>The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.
This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.
The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.


Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

RTY Support Inflection Break

Fed bounce used to add to NDX short at 12,100. RTY break below 1,775 is the more damning inflection pivot to see bear momentum accelerate in our...

Thomas Schroeder

Sell Resistances Post Plunge

NDX, DAX, Asia short levels met ahead of the CPI print. Today's insight focuses on near resistance points to sell into after the conviction bear...

Thomas Schroeder

US Fresh Sell Levels

US bounce in line off of SPX 3,900 support. Index trendline resistances will offer fresh sell points with NDX our top short pick in the US to add...

Thomas Schroeder

August Route Leads September Pain

The impulsive decline in growth sectors (NDX) warns of more pain in September. Sell resistance lies at 12,500/800 below the 13k risk pivot. August...

Thomas Schroeder

Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

We still see the market as being in pullback mode; the $SPX, $QQQ $NDX, and $IWM $RUT are all testing 50-day MA support, the first big area of...

Vermilion Research