Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).</li>
<li>There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.</li>
<li>The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.</li>
</ul>


We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).
There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.
The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.


Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

<ul>
<li>The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. </li>
<li>Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.</li>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)</li>
</ul>


The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. 
Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.
We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)


US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>NDX break of 12,500 pivot support was touted as the lead trigger for the SPX to break below 4,080 pivot support to step up short exposure and reduce longs.</li>
<li>NDX 12,500 and SPX 4,100 are now key resistance levels. RTY short from 1,900+ also staring to work.</li>
<li>NDX 12,100 is the next key support. SPX supports at 3,990 and 3,920 (the later more important). Cycle called to turn south around mid-June into late June.</li>
</ul>


NDX break of 12,500 pivot support was touted as the lead trigger for the SPX to break below 4,080 pivot support to step up short exposure and reduce longs.
NDX 12,500 and SPX 4,100 are now key resistance levels. RTY short from 1,900+ also staring to work.
NDX 12,100 is the next key support. SPX supports at 3,990 and 3,920 (the later more important). Cycle called to turn south around mid-June into late June.


NDX and SPX Pivot Support Breaks and Downside Targets

<ul>
<li>We continue to see the current environment as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals.</li>
<li>The SPX and NDX have been treading water for a week (bull flags?), but the Russell 2000, DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and KWEB have continued to move higher.</li>
<li>We are also seeing major bullish reversals on Europe's STOXX 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225, topside 6- and 9-month downtrends, respectively. These are far from bearish signs.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see the current environment as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals.
The SPX and NDX have been treading water for a week (bull flags?), but the Russell 2000, DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and KWEB have continued to move higher.
We are also seeing major bullish reversals on Europe's STOXX 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225, topside 6- and 9-month downtrends, respectively. These are far from bearish signs.


Small-Caps Starting to Lead; Short-Term Flag Patterns on Major Indexes; Ideas in Energy & Materials

<ul>
<li>NDX sub 13,000 and RTY 1,900+ have been the levels called to build fresh shorts with a tight risk level above 13k and RTY 1,930.</li>
<li>RTY trendline and price resistance is a compelling pivot/top are to turn the cycle south.</li>
<li>Let's not forget that we are still very much in a bear market cycle. Friday's US equity give back is a big step backward after Thursday's bull impulse.</li>
</ul>


NDX sub 13,000 and RTY 1,900+ have been the levels called to build fresh shorts with a tight risk level above 13k and RTY 1,930.
RTY trendline and price resistance is a compelling pivot/top are to turn the cycle south.
Let's not forget that we are still very much in a bear market cycle. Friday's US equity give back is a big step backward after Thursday's bull impulse.


United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

We remain bearish as long as the 6-8 month downtrends remain intact on the SPX, NDX (QQQ), and RUT (IWM). Bounce potential given SPX, QQQ, and IWM...

Vermilion Research

US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

US Dollar $DXY & 10-Year Treasury Yield $TNX Breaking Out; Broad Equity Market Not Likely to Bottom Until the USD and Treasury Yields Start Moving...

Vermilion Research

NDX and SPX Pivot Support Breaks and Downside Targets

NDX break of 12,500 pivot support was touted as the lead trigger for the SPX to break below 4,080 pivot support to step up short exposure and...

Thomas Schroeder

Small-Caps Starting to Lead; Short-Term Flag Patterns on Major Indexes; Ideas in Energy & Materials

We still see this as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals in recent...

Vermilion Research

NDX and RTY MT Barrier Rejection

NDX sub 13,000 and RTY 1,900+ have been the levels called to build fresh shorts with a tight risk level above 13k and RTY 1,930.

Thomas Schroeder